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Car Forum / Driving, Maintenance, Tuning / Maintenance and Repair / April 2006gasoline for automobiles
what dictates the price tag at the pumps - today? mho ve le 21/04/2006 16:44, : > what dictates the price tag at the pumps - today? War on Iraq ? > le 21/04/2006 16:44, : > > > what dictates the price tag at the pumps - today? > > War on Iraq ? Iran. Venezuela. Nigeria. etc....  SignaturePaul Hovnanian mailto:Paul@Hovnanian.com ------------------------------------------------------------------ Karate is a form of martial arts in which people who have had years and years of training can, using only their hands and feet, make some of the worst movies in the history of the world. -- Dave Barry > > le 21/04/2006 16:44, : > > [quoted text clipped - 9 lines] > > etc.... Generally, political unrest anywhere, that threatens to disrupt supply. Oil is an extremely political commodity, especially considering that much of it comes from regions of the world that are saddled with extremely bad governments. >>>le 21/04/2006 16:44, : >>> [quoted text clipped - 15 lines] > much of it comes from regions of the world that are saddled with > extremely bad governments. Don't forget demand! One industry analyst was quoted on national news as saying if public reduced their demand for gasoline 3% the price would drop sharply. The analyst did not expect people to do that, however. Oil is a political commodity because it is in such a high demand. Whenever a scarce resource is in high demand there will be a lot of speculation and unstable prices. > Don't forget demand! One industry analyst was quoted on national news > as saying if public reduced their demand for gasoline 3% the price would > drop sharply. The analyst did not expect people to do that, however. Most especially the SUV/Hummer gas hog owners. Signatureremove MYSHOES to email > > > le 21/04/2006 16:44, : > > > [quoted text clipped - 15 lines] > much of it comes from regions of the world that are saddled with > extremely bad governments. Governments that we have a vested interest in keeping weak and dependent on us. From there, its a short step to 'extremely bad'. SignaturePaul Hovnanian mailto:Paul@Hovnanian.com ------------------------------------------------------------------ Have a pleasant Terran revolution. high priecs, why? *>Generally, >political unrest anywhere, >that threatens to disrupt supply. == the u s probably doesn't import crude oil from every international source, but yet it seems like when any oil producing nation "farts" the price of gas goes up.:--) *now, isn't a situation like that comforting? how long did the hatfields and the mccoys - battle.? mho ve > what dictates the price tag at the pumps - today? > mho China's insatiable demand. China was a net oil exporter until recently -- now they import alot. China is driving up the price of everything that comes out of the earth -- copper, steel, zinc, oil .... Andrew > > what dictates the price tag at the pumps - today? > > mho [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > China is driving up the price of everything that comes out of > the earth -- copper, steel, zinc, oil .... It's not simply that. The Chinese government is also heavily subsidizing the cost of fuel at the pump. They don't want demand to go down as an inherent reaction to high crude oil prices, as they feel this will stunt economic growth. I hear that unleaded goes for well under $2/gallon compared to the typical $3 we're seeing in California. Besides that, they've been willing to pay more than market prices to secure crude oil deliveries. It runs counter to what we might consider reasonable, but they want it that badly. > what dictates the price tag at the pumps - today? > > mho > ve The intersection of Supply and Demand Supply and demand.(china and domestic overpopulation) Lack of new refineries. Lack of refineries that can refine the heavy crude. Lack of alternate fuels. Lack of electric cars. Lack of sufficient nuclear plant capacity to reduce dependence on natural gas. Lack of sufficient nuclear plant capacity to power electric cars if we had them. Auto companies that aren't innovatiog or otherwise don't care about gas mileage. I mean, why can't I buy a diesel hybrid that I can run off of vegetable oil? Why no hybrid that can run off ethanol? > Supply and demand.(china and domestic overpopulation) > Lack of new refineries. [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > mileage. I mean, why can't I buy a diesel hybrid that I can run off of > vegetable oil? Why no hybrid that can run off ethanol? In the immediate term there are several refineries that are off line for maintenance now. Ordinarily those refineries would have performed maintenance in the fall when demand is low, but Katrina took out refining capacity in the south so other refineries had to stay open. That is putting a lot of pressure on prices. In the longer term we only have to much oil to pump from the ground and it is getting more difficult to find. At the same time we continue to burn increasing amounts of it in the form of gasoline. Look at all of the multi-car families and cars with big inefficient engines. Also consider all of the non-fuel products that consume petroleum. We waste a lot and we do have to begin to look for more efficient ways to live. And yes we need to look for alternatives. But I suspect that since most of us try to defer financial pain for as long as possible, we will not make the hard decisions until there is a more or less permanent crisis. > > Supply and demand.(china and domestic overpopulation) > > Lack of new refineries. [quoted text clipped - 14 lines] > refining capacity in the south so other refineries had to stay open. > That is putting a lot of pressure on prices. There is no link between the gulf coast and midwest fuel markets and those here in the Pacific Northwest. And yet, our prices are going up in step with theirs. Within the Pacific Northwest, there is a small differential in fuel costs. Fuel is more expensive in Bellingham, adjacent to the refineries, than elsewhere. At first, this may seem odd and counter to market logic. It used to be cheaper there than elsewhere, But in 1999, there was a major fuel pipeline explosion with three fatalities, for which the pipeline operator was sued. Subsequent to that, prices were increased in the market that did the suing. This isn't something that would work in a free market, but it is quite easy to do if there is collusion in the industry. That collusion may extend across national markets in the form of agreements to keep fuel prices uniform and set by the highest cost areas. SignaturePaul Hovnanian mailto:Paul@Hovnanian.com ------------------------------------------------------------------ Stop Continental Drift! Re-unite Gondwanaland! Ever hear of competitive bidding? « Paul » wrote: > Ever hear of competitive bidding? Ever hear of collusion? Competitive bidding doesn't work in those conditions. SignaturePaul Hovnanian mailto:Paul@Hovnanian.com ------------------------------------------------------------------ Live Faust, die Jung. ever hear of scalping be sanctioned? mho ve > « Paul » wrote: > > > > Ever hear of competitive bidding? > > Ever hear of collusion? Competitive bidding doesn't work in those > conditions. I think it unlikely there is collusion. Those kind of secrets are hard to keep, especially when lots of people are involved. The company that I work for needs about 1.7 million gallons of diesel per day to deliver a very small percentage of the food in US supermarkets. We have a dept of about 300 people who trade fuel and look for spot market deals. We have to go higher than our competition if we want fuel. Then the next day they outbid us by 0.1 cents per gallon for 100k gallons. And so forth. If there is any collusion, I would say its between the environmentalists and the unions that are trying to destroy the US economy. « Paul » wrote: >>« Paul » wrote: >> [quoted text clipped - 12 lines] > If there is any collusion, I would say its between the environmentalists and the > unions that are trying to destroy the US economy. It is easy (and correct) to say that the oil industry has a monopoly on oil. Of course, every industry has a monopoly on the product of their industry. Which oil company in particular has a monopoly on oil? BTW, at least several years ago (don't know today) major owner of oil industry was unions in their pension funds. [snip] > It is easy (and correct) to say that the oil industry has a monopoly on > oil. Of course, every industry has a monopoly on the product of their > industry. Which oil company in particular has a monopoly on oil? No single company does. That's why inefficient markets can only be explained by things like collusion. Look at the oil biz another way: Many oil futures, long term delivery contracts, etc. are based upon an index called the "West Texas Intermediate Crude" price. This is the spot price of crude oil at a certain point in the Texas distribution system. Practically all futures contracts and other oil related prices are tied to this (or a few other) benchmarks. The problem is that the volume of product measured at this point is relatively small. It is trivially easy for a few major producers to manipulate this, and due to its key position in market pricing structures, world market prices. Its sort of like quoting all supermarket food prices as some fraction of the daily price of Beluga Caviar. There are a number of other oddities about the way the oil markets are run. Given our economies critical dependence on petroleum, I find it quite strange that various regulatory agencies like the SEC don't step in and lay down some rules. SignaturePaul Hovnanian mailto:Paul@Hovnanian.com ------------------------------------------------------------------ A vacuum is a hell of a lot better than some of the stuff that nature replaces it with. -- Tennessee Williams don't buy anymore than you have to, and cut your purchases back whenever you can. it's hard to deal with a "bastard trick" mentality. mho ve >double dog dare you, sound familiar? >to reduce your driving by - 10%. « Paul » wrote: > > « Paul » wrote: > > > [quoted text clipped - 10 lines] > higher than our competition if we want fuel. Then the next day they outbid us by > 0.1 cents per gallon for 100k gallons. And so forth. Why do you buy on the spot market at those volumes? Your purchasing department should be working with hedging strategies and long term supply contracts. > If there is any collusion, I would say its between the environmentalists and the > unions that are trying to destroy the US economy. Different topic, but I will say this: It strikes me as rather suspicious that the oil companies have been so eager to jump on the EPS's bandwagon of regional fuel formulation requirements. I think it allows them to segment the market which helps support higher prices. SignaturePaul Hovnanian mailto:Paul@Hovnanian.com ------------------------------------------------------------------ definition: recursion; see recursion. > > > Supply and demand.(china and domestic overpopulation) > > > Lack of new refineries. [quoted text clipped - 18 lines] > those here in the Pacific Northwest. And yet, our prices are going up in > step with theirs. There isn't a link between markets for oil and fuel? How in the world did the gulf coast, midwest and pacific northwest isolate themselves from the worldwide market for petroleum products. The only way for that to happen would be for there to be no shipments of crude and finished products into into or out of that area and I've yet to see an area isolate itself. > Within the Pacific Northwest, there is a small differential in fuel > costs. Fuel is more expensive in Bellingham, adjacent to the refineries, [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > free market, but it is quite easy to do if there is collusion in the > industry. Are you saying there is collusion in pricing, if so please list your sources. > That collusion may extend across national markets in the form of > agreements to keep fuel prices uniform and set by the highest cost [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > ------------------------------------------------------------------ > Stop Continental Drift! Re-unite Gondwanaland! > > > > Supply and demand.(china and domestic overpopulation) > > > > Lack of new refineries. [quoted text clipped - 25 lines] > finished products into into or out of that area and I've yet to see an > area isolate itself. There is no distribution network for refined product that connects the Pacific Northwest and the Gulf Coast. Logically, when the refinery capacity was taken off line by Katrina, that should have resulted in a temporary reduction in demand for crude oil (for which there is a global distribution system) and therefore a drop in price here. > > Within the Pacific Northwest, there is a small differential in fuel > > costs. Fuel is more expensive in Bellingham, adjacent to the refineries, [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > Are you saying there is collusion in pricing, if so please list your > sources. See my explaination above. I don't know what you mean by 'sources'. If it is direct evidence of collusion, then it would already be on its way to the US Justice department. On the other hand, it would be interesting to see the NSA go though its communication intercepts and see if they can detect any patterns involving various energy companies, the Global Petroleum Research Institute, and other interested parties. > > That collusion may extend across national markets in the form of > > agreements to keep fuel prices uniform and set by the highest cost [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > > ------------------------------------------------------------------ > > Stop Continental Drift! Re-unite Gondwanaland! SignaturePaul Hovnanian mailto:Paul@Hovnanian.com ------------------------------------------------------------------ A mathematician is a machine for converting coffee into theorems. > > > > > Supply and demand.(china and domestic overpopulation) > > > > > Lack of new refineries. [quoted text clipped - 31 lines] > temporary reduction in demand for crude oil (for which there is a global > distribution system) and therefore a drop in price here. But the refiners in those markets are not removed from the world market for oil. They can't be isolated from the world price for oil. > > > Within the Pacific Northwest, there is a small differential in fuel > > > costs. Fuel is more expensive in Bellingham, adjacent to the refineries, [quoted text clipped - 17 lines] > involving various energy companies, the Global Petroleum Research > Institute, and other interested parties. You are implying that there is collusion in the setting of oil prices. I am asking for how or where you got that information. It is an accusation of a very serious nature that is very easy to make on a forum. > > > That collusion may extend across national markets in the form of > > > agreements to keep fuel prices uniform and set by the highest cost > > > areas. > > > > > > -- opinions are like a.sholes, everyone has one, this is a bucks world, characterize the present situation as you see it - for your own satisfaction. mho ve >double dog dare you, sound familiar? >to reduce your driving by - 10%. > opinions are like a.sholes, everyone has one, this is a bucks world, > characterize the present situation as you see it - for your own > satisfaction. > > mho > ve I'm sure you have something useful to contribute to the discussion of demand and supply for petroleum products, would you care to try (again)? > > opinions are like a.sholes, everyone has one, this is a bucks world, > > characterize the present situation as you see it - for your own [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > I'm sure you have something useful to contribute to the discussion of > demand and supply for petroleum products, would you care to try (again)? Don't hold your breath. ;-) >John S sez, >I'm sure you have something useful to >contribute to the discussion of demand >and supply for petroleum products, >would you care to try (again)? ===== I shouldn't have to, but I will - just for you.:--) to reiterate, the demand is there, the supply is there, and the opportunists - are at work. the above "package" makes for to-day's prices - without any interference, so far. mho ve >double dog dare you, sound familiar? >to reduce your driving by - 10%. > >John S sez, > [quoted text clipped - 13 lines] > mho > ve See, I knew you could do better than an inane comment like: "opinions are like a.sholes, everyone has one,..." Keep up the good work... > > >John S sez, > > [quoted text clipped - 16 lines] > See, I knew you could do better than an inane comment like: "opinions > are like a.sholes, everyone has one,..." Keep up the good work... Gee, and I was just going to comment on the increasing inanity................ > > > > > > Supply and demand.(china and domestic overpopulation) > > > > > > Lack of new refineries. [quoted text clipped - 34 lines] > But the refiners in those markets are not removed from the world market > for oil. They can't be isolated from the world price for oil. Why didn't the price of oil respond to a reduction in demand at the time? > > > > Within the Pacific Northwest, there is a small differential in fuel > > > > costs. Fuel is more expensive in Bellingham, adjacent to the refineries, [quoted text clipped - 22 lines] > accusation of a very serious nature that is very easy to make on a > forum. Its very serious and congress is busy looking into it. Price data is pretty easy to come by on the 'Net and anybody that cares to look at it can draw their own conclusions about market price distortion. As to the actual existence of collusion, the courts will have to decide whether circumstantial evidence is sufficient, or hope that a few industry insiders come forward in hopes of receiving shorter prison sentences. > > > > That collusion may extend across national markets in the form of > > > > agreements to keep fuel prices uniform and set by the highest cost > > > > areas. > > > > > > > > -- SignaturePaul Hovnanian mailto:Paul@Hovnanian.com ------------------------------------------------------------------ On a clear desk, you can sleep forever. >Its very serious and congress is busy >looking into it. === wasn't it dracula that was in charge of the blood bank?:--) mho ve >double dog dare you, sound familiar? >to reduce your driving by - 10%. > > > > > > > Supply and demand.(china and domestic overpopulation) > > > > > > > Lack of new refineries. [quoted text clipped - 37 lines] > Why didn't the price of oil respond to a reduction in demand at the > time? You stated: There is no distribution network for refined product that connects the Pacific Northwest and the Gulf Coast. Logically, when the refinery capacity was taken off line by Katrina, that should have resulted in a temporary reduction in demand for crude oil (for which there is a global distribution system) and therefore a drop in price here. I think you are confusing a processing point with demand and supply. If you remove a processing point (a refinery) the overall demand for refined petroleum products goes unchanged. Consumers and all other users still need the same amount of refined oil, and because there is less of the product available to be refined the price for crude and the resulting refined products goes up. The refineries that are on line are working longer shifts trying to replace the lost capacity, but they are unable to do so. > > > > > Within the Pacific Northwest, there is a small differential in fuel > > > > > costs. Fuel is more expensive in Bellingham, adjacent to the refineries, [quoted text clipped - 29 lines] > circumstantial evidence is sufficient, or hope that a few industry > insiders come forward in hopes of receiving shorter prison sentences. Then until you or someone else comes up with some proof of collusion lets not spread unfounded rumors. > > > > > That collusion may extend across national markets in the form of > > > > > agreements to keep fuel prices uniform and set by the highest cost [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > ------------------------------------------------------------------ > On a clear desk, you can sleep forever. > Supply and demand.(china and domestic overpopulation) > Lack of new refineries. [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > mileage. I mean, why can't I buy a diesel hybrid that I can run off of > vegetable oil? Why no hybrid that can run off ethanol? The answer to your question is answered with your first statement above: Demand. what dictates the price tag at the pumps - today? mho vfe Speculative crude oil futures (prices) as much as anything. HLS says; >Speculative crude oil futures (prices) as >much as anything. ==== something, don't know what, but it appears to me that there is a bunch of "bastard" tricks being played on the American public. mho ve > HLS says; > > > Speculative crude oil futures (prices) as >much as anything. > ==== > something, don't know what, but it appears to me that there is a bunch > of "bastard" tricks being played on the American public. Those "bastard" tricks are being played upon the American public by its own government, which seems hell-bent on fomenting disaster everywhere. Were it not for Rumsfeld's warmongering, and Bush's retarded acceptance of same, the world might be a different place today. And oil would be quite a lot cheaper. It is difficult for a government to promote freedom when it does not itself understand what freedom is. If Americans continue to enjoy any sort of freedom at all, it is only because their government hasn't got round to taking it away yet. > what dictates the price tag at the pumps - today? > > mho > vƒe spot market « Paul » wrote: > > what dictates the price tag at the pumps - today? > > spot market Responding to...? War. > « Paul » wrote: > [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > > Responding to...? War. Responding to competitive bidders. Too many soccer moms... > « Paul » wrote: > [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > > Responding to...? War. Many factors. According to an article I read recently (possibly in the Wall Street Journal?), one is something of a novelty: some analysts see the latest spike as being driven a lot more by futures markets than by more direct supply-and-demand factors. If memory further serves, the thrust of the article was that the market had therefore reached a certain threshold of maturity and was behaving like other commodities. Anyway, one may wish to have a look at this (should stay up until the next issue, on April 26, at least): http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp Cheers, --Joe > what dictates the price tag at the pumps - today? The greedy oil companies. Signatureremove MYSHOES to email >>what dictates the price tag at the pumps - today? > > The greedy oil companies. Yeah, one would think this was a capitalist country or something. 'Course, the rest of us wanting to maximize our income- that is okay. By the way, when the last oil crisis hit in the late 70s, a news association did an investigation, and found the largest single owner of the oil companies was union pension funds. The idea that a few extremely rich men OWN the oil companies is a holdover from 19th century capitalism. Today, institutions representing millions of investors (including insurance and pension funds) own major american oil companies. I'll bet there are few people on this list that do not in some way or other own a small part of one or more oil companies. We all want lower insurance rates, and higher yields from our mutual funds, and best returns from our pensions, right? Pogo (Walt Kelly) had it right so many years ago. "We has met the enemy and they is __" is it just a coincidence that the spiralling gasoline prices seem to occur under a republican administration, or is there more to it than that? with all the bugaboo of "protecting" the u s citizenry - why has this facet of it being overlooked? just curious. mho ve fiveiron@webtv.net wrote in article <4133-4448EFE6-260@storefull-3313.bay.webtv.net>... what dictates the price tag at the pumps - today? mho vƒe ---------- Greedy people in the "futures" trading pits at the stock exchange...... The oil companies merely manipulate things to allow futures traders to profit. good article here on this issue. there is no single answer like war, demand......etc http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul284.html (snipped) "*" <nospam@this.addy.com> wrote in message |
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