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Car Forum / Driving, Maintenance, Tuning / General Car Topics / June 2007Hybrids vs High MPG Conventional Cars?
My current car is old, at the end of its life cycle. I got a breakdown from metal fatigue. I got some rust. Parts are getting hard to get. This time I got lucky, my mechanic was able to fix it one more time. It looks this winter will be the smart time to take money I saved and buy a new car. Having worked so long to save the money I am concerned about what I buy. I like the idea of buying a hybrid but I am worried about how smart of an investment it is for me apart from environmental issues. I am worried about availability of repairs, availability of parts, and cost of ownership down the road after the warranty expires. I am also worried if I will get a significant trade in. Will anyone want them if better technology comes along or if hybrids fizzle? Since hybrids still burn gas, would a conventional car that gets the same MPG ( or near the same ) be just or nearly as "non-bad" in terms of pollution? Could anyone recommend such a high mpg car? Thanks in advance for any info > Having worked so long to save the money I am concerned about what I > buy. I like the idea of buying a hybrid but I am worried about how > smart of an investment it is for me apart from environmental issues. I > ... The issues you raise are quite valid, especially if you are buying a car that you plan to keep for long time. What is probably going to happen is that a hybrid car will have essentially zero value once the warranty on the battery pack runs out. And of course if you are a tree-hugger, there are all the problems of dealing with the manufacture, recycling, and ultimate disposal of all those batteries. (Though I personally don't give a rat's a.s about "the environment" and don't make purchase decisions on that basis, for some people it's a factor.) Considering that today's hybrid cars get about the same fuel efficiency as a 1980 VW diesel or 1990 Geo Metro, it's hard to get very excited about them, particularly when considering all of the potential drawbacks. If I were looking for a new economy car I would stick with a high-mileage model with a conventional drivetrain.  SignatureRoger Blake (Subtract 10s for email.) > The issues you raise are quite valid, especially if you are buying a > car that you plan to keep for long time. What is probably going to happen > is that a hybrid car will have essentially zero value once the warranty > on the battery pack runs out. Considering most hybrid cars are not yet out of warranty, this doesn't really seem like a founded statement. Those that are out of warranty don't seem to have a sharp decline in their value - if you go shopping for an 8 year old car, other things may be more important in your decision. Keep in mind warranties of this scale are like insurances from a planning point of view: if you offer eight years, you want to be reasonably sure to have less than e.g. 1 failure per 1000 occurences within these eight years. In order to do that, you must build the device so it last way more than eight years. Statistically speaking, looking at a bell curve that has a cumulated 1 in 1000 failure rate after eight years causes me not to lose any sleep over the battery in my Prius. Knowing that those batteries are built out of standard cells similar to those in a ghetto blaster and that they can be exchanged in packs of six should even convince a sceptic that a hybrid will not fall apart unrepairably after the warranty has expired. cu .\\arc > Considering most hybrid cars are not yet out of warranty, this doesn't > really seem like a founded statement. Those that are out of warranty Since the cost of battery replacement is likely to equal or exceed the value of the vehicle when it is 10, 15, 20 years old, it is quite a relevant issue. (I expect a vehicle to last a minimum of 15-20 years. I've been driving my current one for 30 years now.) > Knowing that those batteries are built out of standard cells similar to > those in a ghetto blaster and that they can be exchanged in packs of six > should even convince a sceptic that a hybrid will not fall apart > unrepairably after the warranty has expired. Replacing just some cells in an old battery pack is most likely going to reduce the life of the new cells, as in any other battery-powered device. To hybrids, I say thanks but no thanks. The overly-complex Rube Goldberg drivetrain and expensive batteries just don't portend well for the kind of service life I expect out of an automobile. SignatureRoger Blake (Subtract 10s for email.) >> Considering most hybrid cars are not yet out of warranty, this doesn't >> really seem like a founded statement. Those that are out of warranty > > Since the cost of battery replacement is likely to equal or exceed > the value of the vehicle when it is 10, 15, 20 years old, it is quite > a relevant issue. As relevant as a replacement gear box or similar with a conventional powertrain. > (I expect a vehicle to last a minimum of 15-20 years. I've been > driving my current one for 30 years now.) Wouldn't see why a hybrid couldn't do that. But we'll only know in about 20 years... >> Knowing that those batteries are built out of standard cells similar >> to those in a ghetto blaster and that they can be exchanged in packs [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > to reduce the life of the new cells, as in any other battery-powered > device. So what? Replacing the clutch in a conventional car will not improve the compression of the engine either. The trick is that at a certain age one repairs a car according to its value. So when you have a 12 year old hybrid you may do some minor 'patchwork' at the battery to keep it going for another couple years. > To hybrids, I say thanks but no thanks. The overly-complex Rube > Goldberg drivetrain and expensive batteries just don't portend well > for the kind of service life I expect out of an automobile. Seen a Prius drivetrain? It's marvellously simple, actually, consisting of a simple planetary gear. It's just sufficiently different from conventional setups that old fashioned die-hard's don't understand the logic. cu .\\arc > As relevant as a replacement gear box or similar with a conventional > powertrain. I've seen many cars decades old that have not required major drivetrain work. My own 30+ year old driver has never had the head off the engine or needed transmission or differential work. > Wouldn't see why a hybrid couldn't do that. But we'll only know in about > 20 years... If you need to replace a battery pack costing a couple of grand that will most likely send a 20-year-old hybrid straight to the junkyard. We know that with proper maintenance a well-designed conventional drivetrain can run for decades without requiring major repair. It is not clear at all that this will be the case with hybrids, given the expensive, limited-life batteries involved. I'm certainly not willing to gamble on it with my money. If others want to do so, maybe it'll pay off for them in the long run, maybe not. That's the big question. > Seen a Prius drivetrain? It's marvellously simple, actually, consisting This is obviously some strange new usage of the word "simple" with which we were not previously familiar. As I said, thanks but no thanks. (I don't care much for new cars, but the wife buys one very 10-12 years or so, and did so recently. Hybrids were not considered.) SignatureRoger Blake (Subtract 10s for email.) > I've seen many cars decades old that have not required major drivetrain > work. My own 30+ year old driver has never had the head off the engine > or needed transmission or differential work. Fine. Many other 30+ year old cars are soda cans. There's no reason yet why hybrids shouldn't potter along for 30 years. >> Wouldn't see why a hybrid couldn't do that. But we'll only know in about >> 20 years... > > If you need to replace a battery pack costing a couple of grand that > will most likely send a 20-year-old hybrid straight to the junkyard. Just as with a conventional car and e.g. a gear box. Cars usually go to the junkyard not because repairwork isn't possible, just because it isn't economical. > We know that with proper maintenance a well-designed conventional > drivetrain can run for decades without requiring major repair. It > is not clear at all that this will be the case with hybrids, given > the expensive, limited-life batteries involved. Do you have an idea on the expected lifetime for the batteries? Toyota says they are good for the life of the car, and nobody has proven them wrong yet - with many cars beyond 200000 miles already. >> Seen a Prius drivetrain? It's marvellously simple, actually, consisting > > This is obviously some strange new usage of the word "simple" with > which we were not previously familiar. My point, sort of. It's a planetary set, continually engaged. No clutches, no synchronisation rings that mesh at every gear change, no transmission bands, nothing of that sort. In comparison, drop a five speed manual or auto box on the floor and count the parts. cu .\\arc Exactly what type of rust problems are you having with your current car? Sometimes new plates can be welded into strut towers, etc. "The trick is that at a certain age one repairs a car according to its value. So when you have a 12 year old hybrid you may do some minor 'patchwork' at the battery to keep it going for another couple years. " Actualll I don't agree with that at all. If you like a car adn want to keep if for a long time there is no reason not to just keep on replacing engines and transmissions, etc. as long as you really want to keep the car. Espically if you own an older car that gets good gas mileage before the horsepower wars began. > Exactly what type of rust problems are you having with your current > car? Sometimes new plates can be welded into strut towers, etc. Don't really know what you're referring to here... > "The trick is that at a certain age one repairs a car according to its > value. So when you have a 12 year old hybrid you may do some minor [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > to keep the car. Espically if you own an older car that gets good gas > mileage before the horsepower wars began. Of course if you have an endless supply of money, you can keep any car you wish going for as long as you wish. That's not the point. Ordinary cars though tend to be consumables with an ever-decreasing value - at around 10, or 15 years, depending on the car and the place, their market value is quite close to nil. If your 3 year old car needs a 2000 $ repair, you'd very probably do it, considering the car may have a market value of 12000 or 15000. Ten years and 200000 miles later, with maybe 1000 $ market value and a bunch of other things that could break every day now - would you still invest 2000 in a transmission overhaul? If I wanted to buy a new car and keep it for 30 years, I'd shop with a manufacturer with a reputation for quality and I'd shop for something that may be still usable in 30 years. In general I would expect an internal combustion engine to be an oddity from the past 30 years from now, but at least one with low consumption may still be financeable. So, why not a hybrid? cu .\\arc > that may be still usable in 30 years. In general I would expect an > internal combustion engine to be an oddity from the past 30 years from I rather doubt it. > So, why not a hybrid? Because they basically suck for all the reasons that have been previously mentioned. I'll certainly never buy one. What you do with your money, of course, is your own affair. SignatureRoger Blake (Subtract 10s for email.) >> that may be still usable in 30 years. In general I would expect an >> internal combustion engine to be an oddity from the past 30 years from > > I rather doubt it. Wanna bet? ;-) >> So, why not a hybrid? > > Because they basically suck for all the reasons that have been > previously mentioned. I'll certainly never buy one. What you do > with your money, of course, is your own affair. We've been there, Roger. You're in the past. That's ok, considering your age ;-) cu .\\arc > Wanna bet? ;-) Perhaps you are too young too remember that 30 years ago the same predictions were being made -- running out of oil (actually I've been hearing that one since the 1950s), cars will have to be running on alternative fuels, gotta stop climate change (of course it was "global cooling" back then), etc., etc. I don't buy any of it. > You're in the past. That's ok, considering your age ;-) It's a good place to be: the tried, true, and reliable. In the end I really don't give a rat's behind what the feckless young "doodz" do, they are free to fritter away their money on whatever glitzy new crap comes down the pike. I'm sticking with internal combustion. SignatureRoger Blake (Subtract 10s for email.) > Considering that today's hybrid cars get about the same fuel efficiency > as a 1980 VW diesel or 1990 Geo Metro, it's hard to get very excited > about them, particularly when considering all of the potential drawbacks. Is there a *contemporary* car with about the same MPG? I read that the Prius gets about 50 mpg. The best conventional car I could find was about 30 mpg. I am not a fan of big cars and do not want a big car, but I don't want to go to the other extreme either. I hate hatchbacks and I don't like the really small cars that make you feel like you are in a beer can with wheels. Thanks for any info > Is there a *contemporary* car with about the same MPG? I read that > the Prius gets about 50 mpg. The best conventional car I could find > was about 30 mpg. Pious owners can tell you what kind of mileage they actually get. I would expect best results in city traffic, less dramatic results driving the interstate with A/C or heater running, but I don't personally know anyone who has risked purchasing one. As far as contemporary cars, I have no idea. (If I wanted a 50mpg vehicle I'd probably just pick up an old Rabbit diesel or Geo Metro.) Who is winning the Mobil economy runs these days? Rambler used to be pretty much the head of the pack, but I haven't looked at who the economy champ might be more recently. Don't some of the Jap imports get up around 40 mpg? To my mind a lot would also depend on how long you expect to keep the car. If you're going to trade every few years or so the longevity factor is not as important. If you expect to keep the car a long time it is probably best to stay away from overly-complex, trick drivetrains. SignatureRoger Blake (Subtract 10s for email.) >> Having worked so long to save the money I am concerned about what I >> buy. I like the idea of buying a hybrid but I am worried about how [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] >ultimate disposal of all those batteries. (Though I personally don't give >a rat's a.s about "the environment" If everyone felt that way what do you suppose the air quality in our cities would be like? and don't make purchase decisions >on that basis, for some people it's a factor.) > [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] >If I were looking for a new economy car I would stick with a high-mileage >model with a conventional drivetrain. > If everyone felt that way what do you suppose the air quality in our > cities would be like? I really don't care what you think, Ashton. SignatureRoger Blake (Subtract 10s for email.) >> If everyone felt that way what do you suppose the air quality in our >> cities would be like? > >I really don't care what you think, Ashton. Didn't expect you would given your absence of concern for the environment that we ALL must share. > My current car is old, at the end of its life cycle. I got a breakdown > from metal fatigue. I got some rust. Parts are getting hard to get. 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