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Car Forum / Dodge / Dodge Trucks / October 2005

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Fuel Price

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Roy - 30 Aug 2005 19:26 GMT
Diesel jumped 20 cents to 2.79 from Sunday night to Monday morning.
Unfuckingbelievable!

Roy
jmc - 30 Aug 2005 19:59 GMT
Suddenly, without warning, Roy exclaimed (30-Aug-05 7:26 PM):
> Diesel jumped 20 cents to 2.79 from Sunday night to Monday morning.
> Unfuckingbelievable!
>
> Roy

Here in the UK you're just now catching up to our normal on-base gas
station prices, both gas and diesel.  Gas on the economy is close to
$7.00/gallon now.  yick.

That said, if prices keep going up, when we go back to the US in the
spring, I can see the Dak making a nice lawn ornament.  I could plant a
vegetable garden in the bed :)

jmc
GeekBoy - 31 Aug 2005 03:50 GMT
> Suddenly, without warning, Roy exclaimed (30-Aug-05 7:26 PM):
>> Diesel jumped 20 cents to 2.79 from Sunday night to Monday morning.
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> station prices, both gas and diesel.  Gas on the economy is close to
> $7.00/gallon now.  yick.

Not really. If I am not mistaken, the fuel there is artificially inflated
due to taxation to help curb excessive driving and poultion

> That said, if prices keep going up, when we go back to the US in the
> spring, I can see the Dak making a nice lawn ornament.  I could plant a
> vegetable garden in the bed :)
>
> jmc
TBone - 31 Aug 2005 17:20 GMT
> > Suddenly, without warning, Roy exclaimed (30-Aug-05 7:26 PM):
> >> Diesel jumped 20 cents to 2.79 from Sunday night to Monday morning.
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> Not really. If I am not mistaken, the fuel there is artificially inflated
> due to taxation to help curb excessive driving and poultion

Actually, much of that taxation is used to fund their national health
system.
miles - 01 Sep 2005 02:04 GMT
> Actually, much of that taxation is used to fund their national health
> system.

England has high gas taxes for the main reason to reduce the number of
cars on the road.  Ever drive in London?

Oh yes, that wonderfull socialized health care fiasco in the UK.  No thanks.
TBone - 01 Sep 2005 02:14 GMT
> > Actually, much of that taxation is used to fund their national health
> > system.
>
> England has high gas taxes for the main reason to reduce the number of
> cars on the road.  Ever drive in London?

Complete BS Miles.  My wife is from GB and most of her family still lives
there.  I go there about twice a year, what about you?

> Oh yes, that wonderfull socialized health care fiasco in the UK.  No thanks.

LOL, once again, you talk out of your a.s with no actual knowledge.

Signature

If at first you don't succeed,  you're not cut out for skydiving

miles - 01 Sep 2005 02:23 GMT
> Complete BS Miles.  My wife is from GB and most of her family still lives
> there.  I go there about twice a year, what about you?

Nice try at bluffing there TBone.  Yes, I go there as well and have
relatives there.  High taxes on gas are to reduce cars.  Sure it may go
to healthcare.  They need every penny they can get from taxes to pay for
social services.

> LOL, once again, you talk out of your a.s with no actual knowledge.

Try again.  I do have actual knowledge.  Why do you make such stupid
statements based on guessing about someone or something you know nothing
about?
TBone - 01 Sep 2005 02:41 GMT
> > Complete BS Miles.  My wife is from GB and most of her family still lives
> > there.  I go there about twice a year, what about you?
>
> Nice try at bluffing there TBone.  Yes, I go there as well and have
> relatives there.

Sure you do.

> High taxes on gas are to reduce cars.  Sure it may go
> to healthcare.  They need every penny they can get from taxes to pay for
> social services.

Yes, they do need the money and get it from the gas tax and while they do
not have the number of cars per family that many Americans do, their streets
are far from empty.

> > LOL, once again, you talk out of your a.s with no actual knowledge.
>
> Try again.  I do have actual knowledge.

Prove it, how many relatives and where in the country.

> Why do you make such stupid
> statements based on guessing about someone or something you know nothing
> about?

It is not a guess Miles, from the idiotic crap you say, it is fact.  While
their medical system is far from perfect, it is one hell of a lot better
than what we have, unless you are rich of course.  My father in law passed
away from a form of leukemia a few years ago over there and while he was
alive, they took damn good care of him including weekly transfusions and
other medications which cost him all of nothing for three years from the
time of diagnosis until his death.  Now, where does your knowledge come
from, oh, that's right, it doesn't.

Signature

If at first you don't succeed,  you're not cut out for skydiving

jmc - 01 Sep 2005 20:30 GMT
Suddenly, without warning, TBone exclaimed (01-Sep-05 2:41 AM):

> It is not a guess Miles, from the idiotic crap you say, it is fact.  While
> their medical system is far from perfect, it is one hell of a lot better
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> time of diagnosis until his death.  Now, where does your knowledge come
> from, oh, that's right, it doesn't.

Tbone, I'm going to have to disagree with you here.  NHS sucks.  I
*live* here, have health issues.  I'm sure some NHS doctors are fine,
and actually I'm quite impressed with the local hospital here, but my
local clinic *sucks*.  The two times I needed tests, took THREE MONTHS
before I got an appointment.  NHS thinks it's doing a good job if the
average wait for a procedure is less than 90 days (received a brochure
on this)

I once went in and told the GP I was having nearly debilitating
headaches - headaches that aren't helped by any OTC meds I've tried.  I
have damage in my shoulders and neck which cause tension, but the
headaches have gotten bad enough I thought maybe they were migraine.
What was I told?  Take 3 Ibuprofen.  If it helps the headache at all,
it's a migraine.  If not, it's a tension headache.  And what to do if
it's a tension headache?  Relax.

I could go on, but since this is way off topic...

Our US healthcare system may not be the greatest, but at least I don't
see the absolute apathy I get from both my NHS GPs.

To get back on topic, our gas prices jumped again as well.  Our cheap
gas is now $2.85 per gallon.
TBone - 01 Sep 2005 22:00 GMT
> Suddenly, without warning, TBone exclaimed (01-Sep-05 2:41 AM):
>
[quoted text clipped - 27 lines]
> Our US healthcare system may not be the greatest, but at least I don't
> see the absolute apathy I get from both my NHS GPs.

Like I said, it is not perfect but unless you have money or insurance here,
you get nothing at all.

> To get back on topic, our gas prices jumped again as well.  Our cheap
> gas is now $2.85 per gallon.

$3.24 a gallon for regular unleaded here.  Will probably be higher tomorrow.

Signature

If at first you don't succeed,  you're not cut out for skydiving

jmc - 01 Sep 2005 22:46 GMT
Suddenly, without warning, TBone exclaimed (01-Sep-05 10:00 PM):

>>To get back on topic, our gas prices jumped again as well.  Our cheap
>>gas is now $2.85 per gallon.
>
> $3.24 a gallon for regular unleaded here.  Will probably be higher tomorrow.

yikes!  Too bad the US doesn't have the nearly all-encompassing public
transport system they have here.  Bet lots of people would use it, now.

It's pretty amazing.  Seems like no matter how microscopic the town up
here in northern England, there's a bus that goes through there at least
once a day.  I can take a train to London, and be there faster than I
can drive, even on the motorway with no traffic and a 70mph speed limit.

There's even a dirt-cheap bus service to/from the airport, for those who
can't afford a taxi.  Even more amazing, the cut rate airlines.  We're
paying - no kidding - 19p each to fly to Ireland.  Even with all the
airport fees, that's still about £50 for two people.  Round trip.  The
distance might be about equivalent to flying from Albany, NY to
Washington, DC.

I noticed that Katrina has had an effect on the exchange rate, too.
Jumped from 1.80 to 1.83 today...

Somebody's getting rich, I imagine.  The rest of us just get poorer,
faster, even if we're making 'more money'.

jmc
miles - 02 Sep 2005 06:45 GMT
> yikes!  Too bad the US doesn't have the nearly all-encompassing public
> transport system they have here.  Bet lots of people would use it, now.

The USA is a huge country with vast distances between major cities.
It's 250 miles from Phoenix to the nearest major city for instance.

Mass transportation does work in some cities where large populations are
centralized and travel to/from large job centers.  San Franscisco is a
good example.  People travel from the east bay to S.F. where the jobs
are.  Doesn't work so well in other cities were housing and jobs are
scattered everywhere.
jmc - 02 Sep 2005 15:00 GMT
Suddenly, without warning, miles exclaimed (02-Sep-05 6:46 AM):

>> yikes!  Too bad the US doesn't have the nearly all-encompassing public
>> transport system they have here.  Bet lots of people would use it, now.
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> are.  Doesn't work so well in other cities were housing and jobs are
> scattered everywhere.

Well, I realize that.  I am an American, after all.  I've even taken the
Greyhound across most of the country, in my youth.  I often hear this
excuse, but I'm not really buying it, especially since I understand that
Europe's public transport system is equally robust (but having little
experience with public transport there, I can't say for sure).  I'm
talking about local munincipalities with their own bus system,
connecting to others.  Not one all-encompassing monopoly or gov't run
system.  I don't really see any reason why this wouldn't work well at
least along most of the East Coast, if you needed to go west you'd still
get on a Greyhound.

I'm posted in the UK, which is about the size of Oregon.  I live in a
town of about 25k (it can't be a city, doesn't have a university or a
cathedral), has the same sort of bus system as any major city, and
covers a much wider area than the city itself - I've come across buses
on tiny little country roads that are probably 15-20 miles from any
major population center.  I've seen bus stops on these same roads, with
one farm within a mile or two of it.  Buses run regular to towns with
populations that can probably be counted in the dozens.  For myself, I
live on the very edge of town, there's a bus stop about a 10 minute walk
away, buses run every 12 minutes.  From the bus station (and the
adjacent train station) I can, if I want, take public transport to
John'o'Groats on the north edge of this island, or to any major ferry
port in any direction.  Heck, I can take a train all the way to France
now (before long, I'll be able to do it with only two changes) :)

Why is this not possible in the US? Seems to me it should be.

Oh, and with the gas prices, you can bet I'm taking public transport a
lot more now.  Or better yet, walking.  It's only 2 miles to the High
Street from here.  Augh, been here too long.  2 miles to downtown.  Next
thing you know, I'll be complaining about the cost of petrol (which is
93.6p per litre for petrol - diesel is 96.6).

Our gas prices on base went up again too.  70.6 cents per liter.  The
Brits are really jealous that we pay so little for fuel.

And I do understand that their fuel (and high tax  - VAT is 17.5%!) is
there to pay for their socialistic economy.

I had a guy tell me that it was cheaper for him buy a round-trip airline
ticket to NYC and buy a laptop there, than to go to the local computer
shop to purchase the same laptop.  But I digress.

jmc
miles - 02 Sep 2005 15:44 GMT
> Well, I realize that.  I am an American, after all.  I've even taken the
> Greyhound across most of the country, in my youth.  I often hear this
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> least along most of the East Coast, if you needed to go west you'd still
> get on a Greyhound.

> Why is this not possible in the US? Seems to me it should be.

You have to look at who is doing the traveling any why.  Transportation
on the east coast does make more sense where cities are closer together.
 But in the USA, how many people need to go from one 20K town to
another on a daily basis?  Trains are considerably more common and more
popular in the east coast.  Many small towns in the USA do have
transportation between them.  Usually small shuttle buses or large vans
that make a few trips a day.  They are usually private run.  The other
major reason why they are few is because more people in the USA have
cars to travel the greater distances.  As long as you have a car you'll
use it for shorter trips to small towns as well.  In big major cities
such as San Franscisco many people do not have cars.  Parking spaces are
at a premium for one thing and public transportation is effective there.
Max Dodge - 02 Sep 2005 21:42 GMT
> Why is this not possible in the US? Seems to me it should be.

Damn right it should be. Why not? Because President after President,
Democrat and Republican alike, with Congressional blessing, urging even, has
screwed AMTrak until it had just enough to survive on.

This country at one time had a massive passenger rail system. With the
advent of air travel and then the interstates, rail travel became
"obsolete". This rail system was, IMO, the single biggest factor in keeping
this country productive and able to out produce its enemies in WWII. Said a
German POW held in the Mid West, as he looked out and saw a UP Big Boy (250
tons or so) pulling what seemed a never ending train, "If this country can
make that, there must be more, and if so, Germany will lose."

The NorthEast Corridor (Boston to D.C., basically paralleling I-95) is the
backbone of AMTrak in the east. This corridor is literally one disaster away
from being inoperable due to cuts in funding. Not helping the cause were the
Acela trainsets, which in June turned up with 30% failure rate in the brake
rotors.

If we funded passenger rail between cities enough to keep the service
dependable for two years maximum, ran it at rates and times which made it
worth the lack of independance given by a personal vehicle, we could
actually have a rail system worth talking about. Whats more, since it runs
on freight trackage, the upgrades for passenger trains would improve the
service of hotshot freights, such as mail, UPS, fresh produce, etc.

Union Pacific has entered a multi year plan to upgrade and build new
terminals. This began as a result of having to GIVE UP a contract with
United Parcel Service, due to more traffic than the major lines in its
system could handle. The track was fine, but the amount of room for all the
freight cars was just not there. If AMTrak were in a position to do so, they
could contract with UP to assist in the improvements if given trackage
rights.

However, In the case of AMTrak, it has always been a struggle between free
enterprise and governmental subsidy of passenger rail. Its time government
took its "we know better" attitude and used it to improve not only our rail
system, but our energy policy as well.

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

> Suddenly, without warning, miles exclaimed (02-Sep-05 6:46 AM):
>>
[quoted text clipped - 55 lines]
>
> jmc
Steve Scott - 02 Sep 2005 22:04 GMT
There just isn't the demand for rail if you have a car.  We're in
upstate NY and have relatives in Chantilly, VA.  We've looked at
taking a train down.  On top of being considerably more expensive than
taking our care, not to mention the convenience of having our car when
we get there, the trip was over 24 hours.  Shoot, we drive it in 6.

Let's see.  Slower, more expensive, less convenient.  Three great
reason to hop on.  Now if you don't have a vehicle that's another
story.

>> Why is this not possible in the US? Seems to me it should be.
>
[quoted text clipped - 35 lines]
>took its "we know better" attitude and used it to improve not only our rail
>system, but our energy policy as well.
Max Dodge - 02 Sep 2005 22:35 GMT
> There just isn't the demand for rail if you have a car.

Precisely why we as a nation, and AMTrak as a transportation industry, need
to change the mentality regarding transit. Individuals need to look at
spending more time and less fuel, and AMTrak needs to upgrade its product.

But then, I already said that.

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

> There just isn't the demand for rail if you have a car.  We're in
> upstate NY and have relatives in Chantilly, VA.  We've looked at
[quoted text clipped - 55 lines]
>>rail
>>system, but our energy policy as well.
jmc - 02 Sep 2005 22:45 GMT
Suddenly, without warning, Steve Scott exclaimed (02-Sep-05 10:04 PM):
> There just isn't the demand for rail if you have a car.  We're in
> upstate NY and have relatives in Chantilly, VA.  We've looked at
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> reason to hop on.  Now if you don't have a vehicle that's another
> story.

See, that's what I mean! I remember being on the last trip of the last
passenger train to go through my hometown on the D&H lines.  My brother
was a babe in arms, so that'd make it - late 60's I guess.

24 hours is pretty excessive.  I wouldn't mind if it took a bit longer
than 6 hours - say 10 or even 12 - because the hassle's still less than
driving.  As long as the price is right.

It costs a bit to go to London on the train - equivalent of about $130
for a saver fare round-trip last I did it (I've seen specials for 19
quid) - but as the ride's less than 3 hours, and there's a complete lack
of aggravation involved with the 5 hour drive first on the motorway,
then into the city.  Get there early, and you can even get a seat with a
table.  And some trains even have wireless internet now!

I'd take the train to NY all the time, if we had the same service in the
US.  Heck, I'd take it anywhere (which is what we do here.  Off to York
tomorrow).

I'm not sure that gov't subsidies is the way to go though - down that
path lies socialism, which while not evil, isn't the way *I* want our
country to go.  Why can't AMtrack make a profit on their own?

jmc
Steve Scott - 02 Sep 2005 23:38 GMT
Good question.

>I'm not sure that gov't subsidies is the way to go though - down that
>path lies socialism, which while not evil, isn't the way *I* want our
>country to go.  Why can't AMtrack make a profit on their own?
Max Dodge - 03 Sep 2005 00:10 GMT
Why can't AMtrack make a profit on their own?

Because it wasn't designed to do so. AMTrak is the orphan of the rail
bankruptcy of the NE U.S. in the 1970's. AmTrak started with junk
facilities, and a promise to fund rehab work until it could survive on its
own. This has never been fully realized because the Feds consistantly
underfund it. Compared to what it began with, AmTrak is shorter on
routemiles, barely more modern, and headed for complete bankruptcy.

Meanwhile, ConRail, the freight entity created at the same time, was funded
consistantly until it was able to turn itself into a profitable corporation
owned by the federal government. Since the government (in theory) isn't
supposed to own something where the private sector would be in competition,
ConRail was offered to the highest bidder in the 90's (IIRC). It was
eventually split between two railraods, CSX Corp, and Norfolk Southern.

AmTrak's biggest problem, IMO, has been the lack of trackage it can call its
own, usually sharing route miles with freight rail. In many cases it uses
the rail lines owned by freight railroads. Thus it is at the mercy of the
freight roads in terms of scheduling, stations, and at times, motive power.

If this country changes its attitude towards how AmTrak is structured, and
towards energy policies that don't have long term goals, maybe AmTrak will
work.

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

> Suddenly, without warning, Steve Scott exclaimed (02-Sep-05 10:04 PM):
>> There just isn't the demand for rail if you have a car.  We're in
[quoted text clipped - 31 lines]
>
> jmc
Roy - 03 Sep 2005 01:17 GMT
> Why can't AMtrack make a profit on their own?
>
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> underfund it. Compared to what it began with, AmTrak is shorter on
> routemiles, barely more modern, and headed for complete bankruptcy.

Well said.

> Meanwhile, ConRail, the freight entity created at the same time, was
> funded consistantly until it was able to turn itself into a profitable
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> the freight roads in terms of scheduling, stations, and at times, motive
> power.

Very true especially in CT, they are stuck behind locals all the time.

> If this country changes its attitude towards how AmTrak is structured, and
> towards energy policies that don't have long term goals, maybe AmTrak will
> work.

Very true but they need some people in there that know how to run a
railroad. A politically appointed board of directors that changes with
administrations does it no good either.

For Steve Scott this is where I first ran into Haley Barbour, he was
appointed to the Amtrak BoD. Didn't know sh.t about railroad but that didn't
stop him from f.cking it up.

Roy
>> Suddenly, without warning, Steve Scott exclaimed (02-Sep-05 10:04 PM):
>>> There just isn't the demand for rail if you have a car.  We're in
[quoted text clipped - 31 lines]
>>
>> jmc
Max Dodge - 03 Sep 2005 01:54 GMT
Sadly, even though David Gunn speaks factually and without reserve, the Feds
STILL aren't doing much to fix Amtrak.

Consider that if the NE Corridor had trains AND track capable of the
suggested speeds that the Acela can reach, we would have round trip service
from Boston to D.C. 4-5 times during working hours, and up to ten times a
day. Think about how many cars that would remove from I-95. Think about the
number of ball games within reasonable time/distance, let alone the possible
implications for saving commuter traffic, and the boon to business.

Now think about how nicely a line from Philly to Harrisburg, Pittsburgh,
through Ohio and on to Chicago would work. Then drop one from Chicago to the
Gulf.... wait, we had this once, and it worked wonderfully. hmmm........

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

>> Why can't AMtrack make a profit on their own?
>>
[quoted text clipped - 71 lines]
>>>
>>> jmc
Roy - 03 Sep 2005 05:16 GMT
> Sadly, even though David Gunn speaks factually and without reserve, the
> Feds STILL aren't doing much to fix Amtrak.
>
> Consider that if the NE Corridor had trains AND track capable of the
> suggested speeds that the Acela can reach,

The tracks are there. If you spec the trains correctly you could max out the
Acela. Once again Amtrak needs people that know how to run a railroad, The
reason max speed can't be reached is due to the size of the cars. They are
supposed to tilt as they pass through curves at high speed, in tilt mode
they foul the adjacent track. So speed is reduced.

Roy
Max Dodge - 03 Sep 2005 06:08 GMT
> supposed to tilt as they pass through curves at high speed, in tilt mode
> they foul the adjacent track. So speed is reduced.

Thats what I mean by having the track to do it.

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

>> Sadly, even though David Gunn speaks factually and without reserve, the
>> Feds STILL aren't doing much to fix Amtrak.
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
>
> Roy
jmc - 04 Sep 2005 22:38 GMT
Suddenly, without warning, Roy exclaimed (03-Sep-05 1:17 AM):

>>Why can't AMtrack make a profit on their own?
>>
[quoted text clipped - 36 lines]
>
> Roy

Hey, why doesn't someone just offer a boatload of money for someone
competent from the UK or Europe to help fix the US train system.

Oh, wait. Maybe Europe.  I'm impressed with the breadth of the British
rail system, but not the quality.  For example, 40 minute train ride
once took nearly two hours because there were *leaves on the tracks*.
In fall.  In England.  Duh!

Did that incident this summer where a couple of passenger trains got
stranded, and they wouldn't let people out of the cars until they
started passing out from the heat?  ::sigh::

Tho usually, we've had no problems.  It was smooth sailing to/from York
today, beautiful sunny hot (for here) weather.  I've had few problems on
the London train, no more than I've had travelling by air, anyway.

jmc
jmc - 04 Sep 2005 22:52 GMT
Suddenly, without warning, jmc exclaimed (04-Sep-05 10:38 PM):
> Suddenly, without warning, Roy exclaimed (03-Sep-05 1:17 AM):
>
[quoted text clipped - 57 lines]
>
> jmc

Duh.  What I meant to say is, "Did that incident this summer where a
couple of passenger trains got stranded, and they wouldn't let people
out of the cars until they started passing out from the heat *make the
news in the US*?"

hump.

jmc
Roy - 05 Sep 2005 00:54 GMT
> Suddenly, without warning, Roy exclaimed (03-Sep-05 1:17 AM):
>>
[quoted text clipped - 41 lines]
> Hey, why doesn't someone just offer a boatload of money for someone
> competent from the UK or Europe to help fix the US train system.

> Oh, wait. Maybe Europe.  I'm impressed with the breadth of the British
> rail system, but not the quality.  For example, 40 minute train ride once
> took nearly two hours because there were *leaves on the tracks*. In fall.
> In England.  Duh!

That would be Conex. They were running the british rail until they were
thrown out. IIrc they run a number of railroads throughout the world. Even
here is the US

Roy
Bob - 18 Oct 2005 03:04 GMT
Get real:

How many public (mass) transit systems are not subsidized (i.e. they
don't "loose"  money)?

Our roads are built and maintained by taxes (If you need to pay for a
car, fuel and insurance that's about $8,000 per year, so the taxes on
that are at least $800)

Forestry roads operate at a loss.  I wonder how much the US Forest
Service spends building and maintaining roads for the lumber companies?

Ferries, Mail: loss, loss.

Even sidewalks operate at a loss.

It is to the benefit of most of the country to have efficient
transportation and better air quality. Granted, government is terrible
at running things, but wasn't it private enterprise ruined rail
transport in North America even after huge land grants (public subsidy)?

b/t/w, Which mode of transportation is by far the most deadly?

An interesting tidbit from my life in Vancouver, Canada.
- Public transit to/from work about 15-20 minutes (ea. way) $6 /day
- Diving fuel cost (8500# GVW 3/4 diesel 4x4 pu) about 15 to 45 min.
(ea. way) + 8 minute walk from parking $3-5/ day
- Walking: 50 to 65 minutes (ea. way). $ 0
Thanks for your ears.

> Why can't AMtrack make a profit on their own?
>
[quoted text clipped - 20 lines]
> towards energy policies that don't have long term goals, maybe AmTrak will
> work.
miles - 18 Oct 2005 05:20 GMT
> An interesting tidbit from my life in Vancouver, Canada.
> - Public transit to/from work about 15-20 minutes (ea. way) $6 /day
> - Diving fuel cost (8500# GVW 3/4 diesel 4x4 pu) about 15 to 45 min.
> (ea. way) + 8 minute walk from parking $3-5/ day
> - Walking: 50 to 65 minutes (ea. way). $ 0

Did you including the driving/walking to get from your house to public
transit and from public transit to/from your work?

I live in the suburbs.  Public transportation doesn't work well where
homes and business are spread out all over the place.  It would take me
about 1 1/2 hours each way to get from my home to my work 12 miles away
and require about 4 bus changes.  I'd also have to drive about 3 miles
to the bus stop.
jmc - 18 Oct 2005 06:41 GMT
Suddenly, without warning, miles exclaimed (18-Oct-05 5:20 AM):

>> An interesting tidbit from my life in Vancouver, Canada.
>> - Public transit to/from work about 15-20 minutes (ea. way) $6 /day
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> and require about 4 bus changes.  I'd also have to drive about 3 miles
> to the bus stop.

Or you could walk the 3 miles to the bus stop.  It's not that far, I'm
guessing Bob's walking estimate is about that distance.

Or, something that nobody's considered yet, ride a bike.  It's nearly as
free as walking, and a good bit faster.

In some place, you could probably ride a horse, but that's the wrong ng :)

jmc
John Smith - 18 Oct 2005 11:41 GMT
>> An interesting tidbit from my life in Vancouver, Canada.
>> - Public transit to/from work about 15-20 minutes (ea. way) $6 /day
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> and require about 4 bus changes.  I'd also have to drive about 3 miles to
> the bus stop.

I tried public transport, once.  I have a 21 mile commute. There's a train
stop not too far from my house, 2~3 miles, has a nice parking lot.  The
train takes about 30 minutes to get downtown from my stop, not too bad, but
work is about 6 miles from downtown, the bus ride takes another hour.  Never
again.
Bob - 19 Oct 2005 10:18 GMT
I'm lucky: Bus stop is less than 2 blocks from my residence and I work
about 2 blocks from the "Skytrain" that I transfer to from the bus. The
"walking to" time was included.

I would ride a bike, but there's no shower/changeroom or bike locker at
work. And though I do bike frequently - even on highways, and have biked
to work a couple of times on the weekend, the rush-hour traffic
(drivers) on this route frighten the #### out of me. (btw, I was run off
the road last weekend by someone "driving" a moving van along most of
the bike lane where I was riding at 35-40kph. I managed to keep riding
through the grass tho!)

Yes, public transportation works best in concentrated areas. When I was
going to college (and could barely afford a car) we car-pooled because
the 20-50 minute drive was a 1.5 to 2 hour 3-bus trip (worse after 19.00h).

That being said; It's kind of a chicken-and-egg situation. Make it
easier cheaper and less stressful to use p.t. and more people will. Make
it hard and businesses will relocate to the suburbs because of increased
traffic. Then the cross-commuting will compound the problem.

>> An interesting tidbit from my life in Vancouver, Canada.
>> - Public transit to/from work about 15-20 minutes (ea. way) $6 /day
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> and require about 4 bus changes.  I'd also have to drive about 3 miles
> to the bus stop.
miles - 02 Sep 2005 06:42 GMT
> Like I said, it is not perfect but unless you have money or insurance here,
> you get nothing at all.

Not true.  All states have a HCCCS if you know what that is.  Plus they
have the county Dr's and hospitals that provide free or low cost care.
There are numerous other programs for those that bother to seek it.
Decent health care for most is better than lousy health care for all.

> $3.24 a gallon for regular unleaded here.  Will probably be higher tomorrow.

As of tonight regular runs $2.65 to $3.09 across metro Phoenix.
Steve Scott - 01 Sep 2005 02:33 GMT
He's not so far off with his assessment.  Do you know of anyone in GB
over 60 getting kidney dialysis?  Not available to those over 60.

>> > Actually, much of that taxation is used to fund their national health
>> > system.
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
>
>LOL, once again, you talk out of your a.s with no actual knowledge.
jmc - 01 Sep 2005 20:36 GMT
Suddenly, without warning, miles exclaimed (01-Sep-05 2:06 AM):

>> Actually, much of that taxation is used to fund their national health
>> system.
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> Oh yes, that wonderfull socialized health care fiasco in the UK.  No
> thanks.

Actually, London has a "congestion charge" to reduce driving in the
city.  Don't remember the exact amount, but I think it just went up to
£8 per day (about $15).

Don't know the answer as to where the gas tax goes.  I do know that at
least out here in the boonies, roads are repaired *before* they turn
into a pothole-laden nightmare.  Though I sometimes wonder if it's
makework, because I've seen roads repaired that didn't look damaged at all.

jmc
GeekBoy - 02 Sep 2005 15:03 GMT
> Suddenly, without warning, miles exclaimed (01-Sep-05 2:06 AM):
>>
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> Don't remember the exact amount, but I think it just went up to £8 per day
> (about $15).

No wonder the Queen has so much money ;-)

> Don't know the answer as to where the gas tax goes.  I do know that at
> least out here in the boonies, roads are repaired *before* they turn into
> a pothole-laden nightmare.  Though I sometimes wonder if it's makework,
> because I've seen roads repaired that didn't look damaged at all.

Predictive road repair. "That looks like its gonna pothole, lets get it
boys!"

> jmc
jmc - 01 Sep 2005 20:34 GMT
Suddenly, without warning, GeekBoy exclaimed (31-Aug-05 3:50 AM):

>>Suddenly, without warning, Roy exclaimed (30-Aug-05 7:26 PM):
>>
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> Not really. If I am not mistaken, the fuel there is artificially inflated
> due to taxation to help curb excessive driving and poultion

"not really"?  Yes, much of the gas price is tax, but we still have to
pay it.  And as far as excessive driving goes, I guess it's working.  A
high percentage of folks in this town don't even *own* cars, trains and
buses are quite heavily used.

>>That said, if prices keep going up, when we go back to the US in the
>>spring, I can see the Dak making a nice lawn ornament.  I could plant a
>>vegetable garden in the bed :)
>>
>>jmc
TBone - 30 Aug 2005 21:27 GMT
lack of current supply and ever increasing demand :-)

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If at first you don't succeed,  you're not cut out for skydiving

> Diesel jumped 20 cents to 2.79 from Sunday night to Monday morning.
> Unfuckingbelievable!
>
> Roy
Max Dodge - 30 Aug 2005 21:37 GMT
> lack of current supply and ever increasing demand :-)

That might be true if... it was true.

Supply is fine, and demand is steady, according to all reports I've read.

This years surge is being driven by the futures market, not the consumer
market.

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

> lack of current supply and ever increasing demand :-)
>
>> Diesel jumped 20 cents to 2.79 from Sunday night to Monday morning.
>> Unfuckingbelievable!
>>
>> Roy
TBone - 30 Aug 2005 22:18 GMT
> > lack of current supply and ever increasing demand :-)
>
> That might be true if... it was true.

Here we go again.

> Supply is fine, and demand is steady, according to all reports I've read.

LOL, unless those reports were written TODAY, they really don't mean sh.t.
If the supply is fine as you say, why would the President be considering
opening some of the national oil reserve?

> This years surge is being driven by the futures market, not the consumer
> market.

If the price was purely based on people in the futures market speculating to
drive the price up, the possibility of the President opening up the reserves
would cause the price to plummet and that didn't happen.  Perhaps you missed
that hurricane yesterday and the damage it caused to some major  supply
lines.

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Max Dodge - 30 Aug 2005 23:12 GMT
> LOL, unless those reports were written TODAY, they really don't mean sh.t.
> If the supply is fine as you say, why would the President be considering
> opening some of the national oil reserve?

Some of those reports were written today. Find me anything that says there
is a shortage of oil. All I've read says, theres no shortage, just a huge
investor pool that likes to speculate.

As to the president, we all know why he's considering it. Political favor,
insurance in keeping a good economy, etc. But I doubt it'll have any real
effect on pump prices, since there is plenty of oil to be had.

> If the price was purely based on people in the futures market speculating
> to
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> that hurricane yesterday and the damage it caused to some major  supply
> lines.

You missed it, the price DID drop over $2 a barrel on that news, and DESPITE
the hurricane not suddenly disappearing. Damage to major supply lines,
maybe, but all the refinery spokespeople are claiming minor damage.

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

>> > lack of current supply and ever increasing demand :-)
>>
[quoted text clipped - 19 lines]
> that hurricane yesterday and the damage it caused to some major  supply
> lines.
FMB - 31 Aug 2005 01:55 GMT
<snip>
> You missed it, the price DID drop over $2 a barrel on that news, and
> DESPITE the hurricane not suddenly disappearing. Damage to major supply
> lines, maybe, but all the refinery spokespeople are claiming minor damage.

You seem to miss something here, Max.  There was over a million barrels per
day refining production shut down along the coast prior to the hurricane
hitting.  That is lost gas/diesel/jet/ production prior to the storm.

Then the storm hits and does whatever damage to the facilities it does.  If
it were heavy damage, it would take months to repair.  If it were minor
damage, then they only have to do system checks and get rid of the gators
and snakes and make it safe to operate again. This could be days of
inspection, testing and repair, if you had full crews and extra contractors.

In the days of a regular plant shutdown/turnaround, all this workforce
worked there butts off and went home after their shift or to the motel.
Hello? The homes are gone. There are no hotels.  Most of the infrastructure
is gone.  It is difficult to start a refinery with nobody to run it.  Lots
of companies are helping the communities by bringing in basic needs.
Without that, people won't be able to work.

Some of you out there think all you have to do is turn a key and a refinery
starts.  This ain't your sweet Dodge Ram CTD.  LOL!  Depending on the
particular unit, it may take a week to 10 days to come up online and make
on-test product.  That is when no problems occur during startup.  Some
facilities took most of a month after the last hurricane went through
Mississippi.

Gasoline shortage?  You will get your gasoline after the refiners outbid
someone else for the tanker load of gas.  Maybe you ought to feel good that
you have a vehicle to put it in.  Thousands in the South no longer do.
Signature


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(only one B in FMB)
[Cindy, slither home]

Max Dodge - 31 Aug 2005 03:41 GMT
> You seem to miss something here, Max.  There was over a million barrels
> per day refining production shut down along the coast prior to the
> hurricane hitting.  That is lost gas/diesel/jet/ production prior to the
> storm.

Didn't miss it at all, and apparently neither did the market, as the price
on  the trading day before landfall hit a high just over $70, and then
dropped back just below $68 a barrel. If you read what I wrote, you'd see
that I didn't miss that part, since I used that pricing to rebut a comment
exactly like yours.

> Then the storm hits and does whatever damage to the facilities it does.
> If it were heavy damage, it would take months to repair.  If it were minor
> damage, then they only have to do system checks and get rid of the gators
> and snakes and make it safe to operate again. This could be days of
> inspection, testing and repair, if you had full crews and extra
> contractors.

True, but "days of inspection" are better than months of no production.
According to what I was hearing mid afternoon, damage was "minor". Again, I
said that before.

> In the days of a regular plant shutdown/turnaround, all this workforce
> worked there butts off and went home after their shift or to the motel.
> Hello? The homes are gone. There are no hotels.  Most of the
> infrastructure is gone.  It is difficult to start a refinery with nobody
> to run it.  Lots of companies are helping the communities by bringing in
> basic needs. Without that, people won't be able to work.

Ok, so the companies spend some of their profits and create the services
needed to support employees. Not a huge hardship, given the size and
resources of these companies.

> Some of you out there think all you have to do is turn a key and a
> refinery starts.  This ain't your sweet Dodge Ram CTD.  LOL!  Depending on
> the particular unit, it may take a week to 10 days to come up online and
> make on-test product.  That is when no problems occur during startup.
> Some facilities took most of a month after the last hurricane went through
> Mississippi.

Great, so its a month instead of six. Again, We're talking about things I
already noted.

> Gasoline shortage?  You will get your gasoline after the refiners outbid
> someone else for the tanker load of gas.  Maybe you ought to feel good
> that you have a vehicle to put it in.  Thousands in the South no longer
> do.

I'l repeat myself, I do not believe, based on almost all reports I've read
and heard, that there is any shortage of motor fuel in this country. And
yes, I feel good that I have a vehicle to put it in. Take note (because
obviously you haven't) I have yet to complain about the cost of fuel. Do I
like it? No. But at this point, I'm doing ok with it, and have no real
hardship. Perhaps you should take that into account next time you decide to
lecture me with a guilt trip.

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

> <snip>
>> You missed it, the price DID drop over $2 a barrel on that news, and
[quoted text clipped - 32 lines]
> that you have a vehicle to put it in.  Thousands in the South no longer
> do.
TBone - 31 Aug 2005 18:40 GMT
> > You seem to miss something here, Max.  There was over a million barrels
> > per day refining production shut down along the coast prior to the
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> that I didn't miss that part, since I used that pricing to rebut a comment
> exactly like yours.

You didn't miss it, you simply didn't understand it.  $2 is chump change and
means nothing.

> > Then the storm hits and does whatever damage to the facilities it does.
> > If it were heavy damage, it would take months to repair.  If it were minor
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> According to what I was hearing mid afternoon, damage was "minor". Again, I
> said that before.

Then you heard wrong.  Until they get the flood water out of the way, there
is no way to inspect and no idea how bad the damage really is so most of the
reports that you hear right now are wishful thinking and simply bullshit.

> > In the days of a regular plant shutdown/turnaround, all this workforce
> > worked there butts off and went home after their shift or to the motel.
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> needed to support employees. Not a huge hardship, given the size and
> resources of these companies.

It is a HUGE hardship as much of the area is still under water and there is
no way to get building supplies into these areas.  Then you can add the
facts that there is no electricity, drinking water, or shelter nearby for
the construction crews either and the problem becomes much larger than you
want to see.

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Max Dodge - 01 Sep 2005 00:43 GMT
> You didn't miss it, you simply didn't understand it.  $2 is chump change
> and
> means nothing.

Thanks for jumping through the same hoop twice.

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

>> > You seem to miss something here, Max.  There was over a million barrels
>> > per day refining production shut down along the coast prior to the
[quoted text clipped - 53 lines]
> the construction crews either and the problem becomes much larger than you
> want to see.
GeekBoy - 31 Aug 2005 03:55 GMT
> <snip>
>> You missed it, the price DID drop over $2 a barrel on that news, and
[quoted text clipped - 27 lines]
> Some facilities took most of a month after the last hurricane went through
> Mississippi.

I remember my younger days I did a temp job on a Mobil Oil turnaround. They
had to wait a while before crews could start work on it. 2 weeks later they
turned the unit back on and after about 10 days it was too hot for anyone to
work on it anymore. End of job

> Gasoline shortage?  You will get your gasoline after the refiners outbid
> someone else for the tanker load of gas.  Maybe you ought to feel good
> that you have a vehicle to put it in.  Thousands in the South no longer
> do.
TBone - 31 Aug 2005 15:51 GMT
> > LOL, unless those reports were written TODAY, they really don't mean sh.t.
> > If the supply is fine as you say, why would the President be considering
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> is a shortage of oil. All I've read says, theres no shortage, just a huge
> investor pool that likes to speculate.

The futures market tells me all I need to see.  Unless supplies in the NEAR
future are going to be strained, the price cannot be driven up like that and
the news today backs me up.

> As to the president, we all know why he's considering it. Political favor,
> insurance in keeping a good economy, etc. But I doubt it'll have any real
> effect on pump prices, since there is plenty of oil to be had.

Once again, you are completely wrong.  3 Refineries are under water and will
not be restarting any time soon, there is currently NO production in the
gulf at all, the mars platform is severely damaged and will probably be down
for months and an entire 50 million dollar rig is MISSING.  Now the
President has said that he WILL tap the strategic reserves which would (if
the price was driven up by pure speculation) cause a major price drop and
again, that didn't happen.  A $2.00 price drop means NOTHING and today, the
price held at $70 a barrel.

> > If the price was purely based on people in the futures market speculating
> > to
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
> the hurricane not suddenly disappearing. Damage to major supply lines,
> maybe, but all the refinery spokespeople are claiming minor damage.

There tune has now changed and $2 a barrel doesn't mean sh.t, not when we
are up $20.

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Max Dodge - 01 Sep 2005 00:37 GMT
> LOL, a reserve for how long Max.  These refineries could be down for
> months
> and who knows how long it will take to fully repair the infrastructure.
> And
> BTW, they had DAYS, not weeks to prepare.

Um, no, they had weeks, its hurricane season, and they knew a week in
advance that Katrina was coming into the gulf. Thus, they had at least ten
days to figure it out, maybe more. I'm sure they have their own
meteorological staff that helps them keep track of such things.

As to the damage, I'm STILL not seeing anything that says the damage was
more than minor to these refineries.

What kills me is, y'all act like there are no refineries anywhere else in
the U.S.

>> Typically dozens of tankers sit waiting for a place to offload.
>
> Sure, and where are they going to offload too?

Its a big country, and since Texas has terminals, as do states along the
east coast. If the oil companies felt they had a problem, you can bet the
tankers would be sent elsewhere to off load.

> Yea, a buffer for a few days or even weeks, not months.

Ok, so who says it'll be months?

> Not only do you have to look at the futures market Max, you actually have
> to
> understand it and from what you are saying, you don't.

Ahh yes, the ol' "you don't know what you're talking about, and neither do
I, so I'll just insult you and leave my defense of my statements at that."

How original.

> If it were only this simple.

It is that simple.

> First of all, the only way that people could
> drive uip the price this way is if the supplies are limited which
> according
> to you, they are not.

Wrong. You obviously don't know how the market works. These people are
buying a stake in the FUTURE of oil production, expecting that their
investment will bear a return. They aren't buying a supply, they are buying
(and risking) on a product yet to be produced.

> Then there is a SIGNIFICANT risk of loss driving up
> the price in a market that has a ready supply because someone else can
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> beginning and I really don't have the time to list out point by point why
> this is wrong and you really need to do a little reading.

I have, but it seems you have not.

> The only thing
> that I will say that the only way for the futures of something to be
> driven
> up like this is because the near future availability of of the item is
> believed to be in SHORT supply.

The key word being "BELIEVED".

> The price is always determined by the market Max.  If people will not pay
> the price that you want, then you lose money.

But in the case of fuel, they keep buying, don't they? Thus, the spiral goes
on.

> The futures market tells me all I need to see.  Unless supplies in the
> NEAR
> future are going to be strained, the price cannot be driven up like that
> and
> the news today backs me up.

Except for that little word you used, "BELIEVED" ..to be in short supply.

> Once again, you are completely wrong.  3 Refineries are under water and
> will
> not be restarting any time soon,

Got a source on this? I keep hearing "minor damage".

> there is currently NO production in the
> gulf at all,

Rubbish. 900+ platforms, and no production?

> the mars platform is severely damaged and will probably be down
> for months and an entire 50 million dollar rig is MISSING.  Now the
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> the
> price held at $70 a barrel.

Paranoia reins supreme it seems. You're good at listing damage, bu say
nothing of whats still working. All your info is speculative, with no
sources listed. I've been watching MSN, among others, and so far, no reports
on huge oil related damages.

> There tune has now changed and $2 a barrel doesn't mean sh.t, not when we
> are up $20.

Up $20 from what point in time? Get it yet? This rise in price has been LONG
TERM, not just from this week.

I'd like to see you sources on refinery damage.

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

>> > LOL, unless those reports were written TODAY, they really don't mean
> sh.t.
[quoted text clipped - 47 lines]
> There tune has now changed and $2 a barrel doesn't mean sh.t, not when we
> are up $20.
Steve Scott - 01 Sep 2005 02:14 GMT
Apparently, pre-Kat, the refineries in the US have been running darned
near to capacity.  There haven't been any new refineries built in the
US in far too long.  Too many NIMBYers.

>What kills me is, y'all act like there are no refineries anywhere else in
>the U.S.
TBone - 01 Sep 2005 02:24 GMT
While you are correct would you want one in your backyard?

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If at first you don't succeed,  you're not cut out for skydiving

> Apparently, pre-Kat, the refineries in the US have been running darned
> near to capacity.  There haven't been any new refineries built in the
> US in far too long.  Too many NIMBYers.
>
> >What kills me is, y'all act like there are no refineries anywhere else in
> >the U.S.
Steve Scott - 01 Sep 2005 02:32 GMT
Sure they can put one in my backyard.  Sell them the whole property
and they can have the front yard too.  

Seriously, there are MANY locations in the US where a refinery could
be placed and the impact would be minimal.  

>While you are correct would you want one in your backyard?
>
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>> >What kills me is, y'all act like there are no refineries anywhere else in
>> >the U.S.
Max Dodge - 01 Sep 2005 02:46 GMT
> Apparently, pre-Kat, the refineries in the US have been running darned
> near to capacity.  There haven't been any new refineries built in the
> US in far too long.  Too many NIMBYers.

Terrific, but to use that logic, a drop of 10% in production in the past
week is being blamed for a 60% rise in cost over the past year.

Simply isn't so. Fact is, global demand has driven the speculative market
over the past year, not lack of refinery capacity in the past week.

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

> Apparently, pre-Kat, the refineries in the US have been running darned
> near to capacity.  There haven't been any new refineries built in the
> US in far too long.  Too many NIMBYers.
>
>>What kills me is, y'all act like there are no refineries anywhere else in
>>the U.S.
TranSurgeon - 01 Sep 2005 03:01 GMT
> Simply isn't so. Fact is, global demand has driven the speculative market
> over the past year, not lack of refinery capacity in the past week.

don't neglect the news media fueling the feeding frenzy

if the media would STFU for a few days, prices would stabilize; instead,
their constant harping leads operators to think 'hey, the news people have
the general public believing it will go still higher, let's raise it another
20 cents........'
Steve Scott - 01 Sep 2005 03:48 GMT
It's both really.  Anticipated increases in global demand while
current world oil production is near its peak have driven up the oil
futures.  Nine consecutive weeks of a decrease in US gas stockpiles
has also helped to drive up US gas prices.

>> Apparently, pre-Kat, the refineries in the US have been running darned
>> near to capacity.  There haven't been any new refineries built in the
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
>>>What kills me is, y'all act like there are no refineries anywhere else in
>>>the U.S.
TBone - 01 Sep 2005 04:48 GMT
> > LOL, a reserve for how long Max.  These refineries could be down for
> > months
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> days to figure it out, maybe more. I'm sure they have their own
> meteorological staff that helps them keep track of such things.

LOL, can you really be this stupid.  Hurricanes are just about impossible to
predict as to exact path and strength.  Until it got there (into the gulf)
they had no idea where it would wind up and when it did cross over Florida,
it entered the gulf as a weak category 1.  Then after it got there, they
still had no idea how much stronger it would get OR it's path back out.  At
first they thought it would turn NE and hit Florida again.  Like I said, at
best they had DAYS and either way and until it actually made landfall, they
still didn't know exactly where it was going to hit.  BTW, refineries under
water don't produce much and pipelines without power to their pumps
transport NOTHING.

> As to the damage, I'm STILL not seeing anything that says the damage was
> more than minor to these refineries.

While the damage may be minor, they don't have the power or personel to
restart right away and many are still under water and cannot restart until
the water is removed.

> What kills me is, y'all act like there are no refineries anywhere else in
> the U.S.

The other ones are already under maximum proguction so what exactly do you
expect them to do?  And even if they could produce more, how exactly do you
expect to get the product to where it needs to go?

> >> Typically dozens of tankers sit waiting for a place to offload.
> >
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> east coast. If the oil companies felt they had a problem, you can bet the
> tankers would be sent elsewhere to off load.

LOL, yea, and they will get there when, in a week or so.  And if these east
coast and Texas refineries are already operating at maximum capacity, what
exactly is this extra crude going to do for them?

> > Yea, a buffer for a few days or even weeks, not months.
>
> Ok, so who says it'll be months?

The news and the President.

> > Not only do you have to look at the futures market Max, you actually have
> > to
> > understand it and from what you are saying, you don't.
>
> Ahh yes, the ol' "you don't know what you're talking about, and neither do
> I, so I'll just insult you and leave my defense of my statements at that."

I know more about this than you do.

> How original.
>
> > If it were only this simple.
>
> It is that simple.

Nope.

> > First of all, the only way that people could
> > drive uip the price this way is if the supplies are limited which
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> investment will bear a return. They aren't buying a supply, they are buying
> (and risking) on a product yet to be produced.

That is correct and that risk has to be founded in something.  If as you and
Miles say, that the supply is just fine, there would be no justification in
taking that risk and at the first sign of trouble (like the President
opening the national reserves) the price would crash just like it did with
the tech bubble.

> > Then there is a SIGNIFICANT risk of loss driving up
> > the price in a market that has a ready supply because someone else can
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
>
> I have, but it seems you have not.

If you read it, you didn't understand what you were reading.

> > The only thing
> > that I will say that the only way for the futures of something to be
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>
> The key word being "BELIEVED".

That is correct and that belief has to be based on some facts and figures.
The people that can afford to make these investments didn't get that money
by being foolish.

> > The price is always determined by the market Max.  If people will not pay
> > the price that you want, then you lose money.
>
> But in the case of fuel, they keep buying, don't they? Thus, the spiral goes
> on.

Sure, they keep buying, but they tend to buy less (and buy more fuel
efficient vehicles) and if the reserves of gas increase, the price falls and
these investors lose money.

> > The futures market tells me all I need to see.  Unless supplies in the
> > NEAR
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>
> Except for that little word you used, "BELIEVED" ..to be in short supply.

Because it is with record low reserves BEFORE this disaster AND before the
big holiday.

> > Once again, you are completely wrong.  3 Refineries are under water and
> > will
> > not be restarting any time soon,
>
> Got a source on this? I keep hearing "minor damage".

Just because the damage is minor doesn't mean that they can restart.  Under
water is under water and even if the water is only a few feet high, it is
enough to prevent the refinery from restarting and if the pipeline is not
operational, where exactly is the output going to go?

> > there is currently NO production in the
> > gulf at all,
>
> Rubbish. 900+ platforms, and no production?

Don't tell me, talk to Shell.  They made the comment on CNBC today.  Did you
forget about the evacuations on those platforms?

> > the mars platform is severely damaged and will probably be down
> > for months and an entire 50 million dollar rig is MISSING.  Now the
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> Paranoia reins supreme it seems. You're good at listing damage, bu say
> nothing of whats still working.

Because if we are running at 100%, what is still working doesn't really
matter.  What matters is how much is no longer working and for how long.

> All your info is speculative, with no
> sources listed. I've been watching MSN, among others, and so far, no reports
> on huge oil related damages.

LOL, just look at the area and the aerial pictures.  The place is a disaster
with no housing, power, or water.  Where are these people going to live who
operate these refineries and how are they going to more the refined
materials with the pipeline down, the roads under water, and no fuel for the
trucks to transport it?

> > There tune has now changed and $2 a barrel doesn't mean sh.t, not when we
> > are up $20.
>
> Up $20 from what point in time? Get it yet? This rise in price has been LONG
> TERM, not just from this week.

I never said that it was all from this week.  Roy made a complaint about the
sudden jump in price of diesel this week and that WAS due to this storm.  As
for the $20 dollar increase, that was the past few months and was not due to
pure speculation but was due to real problems with supply and demand.

> I'd like to see you sources on refinery damage.

Try CNBC, the local news, the President, CNN....

Signature

If at first you don't succeed,  you're not cut out for skydiving

Max Dodge - 01 Sep 2005 14:38 GMT
> LOL, can you really be this stupid.  Hurricanes are just about impossible
> to
> predict as to exact path and strength.

Yeah, thats why they are able to put a five day track on them, and pretty
much nail the track dead on. If they are within 100 miles (and they were) on
such a storm they nailed it.

> Until it got there (into the gulf)
> they had no idea where it would wind up and when it did cross over
> Florida,
> it entered the gulf as a weak category 1.

Yeah, and everyone knows a hurricane over water gathers strength. Except you
apparently. "Weak category 1" shows how much you actually know about this
sort of thing.

> Then after it got there, they
> still had no idea how much stronger it would get OR it's path back out.

It tracked almost exactly as NOAA had it on their websites.

> The other ones are already under maximum proguction so what exactly do you
> expect them to do?  And even if they could produce more, how exactly do
> you
> expect to get the product to where it needs to go?

You seem to think trucks and trains are the answer, so why ask me?

> The news and the President.

Let me get this straight, you believe the President on this issue, but
everything else, from the economy to the Iraq War, you say h has no clue and
doesn't have the facts. Is that how it works?

> I know more about this than you do.

Apparently not.

>> The key word being "BELIEVED".
>
> That is correct and that belief has to be based on some facts and figures.
> The people that can afford to make these investments didn't get that money
> by being foolish.

HAS to be? Yeah, I'm sure all the day traders know exactly what they are
looking at. And I'm sure all the info sources have it right. Just like the
President does this ONE time with your beliefs.

> Don't tell me, talk to Shell.  They made the comment on CNBC today.  Did
> you
> forget about the evacuations on those platforms?

And Shell owns ALL the platforms, right?

> LOL, just look at the area and the aerial pictures.  The place is a
> disaster
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> the
> trucks to transport it?

You'd be surprised what large industry can do when they see a profit
opportunity. All those questions and more WILL be answered by the close of
business Friday. BET on it.

> Try CNBC, the local news, the President, CNN....

Yeah, I listed CNN as one of my sources, and here you are contradicting it.
You list the president as a reliable source, which contradicts anything
you've said about the man in recorced history, and expect me to believe what
you say. Laughable at best.

Please post 25 times in response to this, I want to see you top 100
worthless posts to this thread.

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

>> > LOL, a reserve for how long Max.  These refineries could be down for
>> > months
[quoted text clipped - 219 lines]
>
> Try CNBC, the local news, the President, CNN....
TBone - 01 Sep 2005 16:34 GMT
> > LOL, can you really be this stupid.  Hurricanes are just about impossible
> > to
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> much nail the track dead on. If they are within 100 miles (and they were) on
> such a storm they nailed it.

LOL, yea, within their 100 mile cone of uncertainty.  The problem with that
is that 100 miles makes a HUGE difference in the amount of damage.  You do
know that, right?  And on top of that, do you really want tankers in port
with an approaching hurricane?

> > Until it got there (into the gulf)
> > they had no idea where it would wind up and when it did cross over
> > Florida,
> > it entered the gulf as a weak category 1.
>
> Yeah, and everyone knows a hurricane over water gathers strength.

LOL, that is not true.  Hurricanes over WARM water gain strength but that is
not the only condition and although they gain strength, there is no way of
knowing how much.  They predicted a strong 3 or possibly a 4 not the 5 that
it became.

> Except you apparently. "Weak category 1" shows how much you actually know
about this
> sort of thing.

Still apparently far more than you do.

> > Then after it got there, they
> > still had no idea how much stronger it would get OR it's path back out.
>
> It tracked almost exactly as NOAA had it on their websites.

Yea, within their 100 mile possible deviation and no idea of how strong it
might become.

> > The other ones are already under maximum proguction so what exactly do you
> > expect them to do?  And even if they could produce more, how exactly do
> > you
> > expect to get the product to where it needs to go?
>
> You seem to think trucks and trains are the answer, so why ask me?

Because you claim to know everything.  Trucks and trains are an emergency
solution but you keep saying that the impact is minimal so perhaps you know
something that everyone else doesn't.

> > The news and the President.
>
> Let me get this straight, you believe the President on this issue, but
> everything else, from the economy to the Iraq War, you say h has no clue and
> doesn't have the facts. Is that how it works?

And you claim that he is right about everything and now he is lying, LOL.
That door swings both ways Maxi.  The difference here is that the damage is
obvious and the reports back him up this time.

> > I know more about this than you do.
>
> Apparently not.

Wrong again, but why spoil a near perfect record.

> >> The key word being "BELIEVED".
> >
[quoted text clipped - 5 lines]
> looking at. And I'm sure all the info sources have it right. Just like the
> President does this ONE time with your beliefs.

That is right, the belief HAS TO BE based of some facts and figures or they
are fools and would be soon parted from that money.  Having some facts and
figures does not mean that they know everything and things can change AND
the can simply be wrong but playing the futures market is MUCH more involved
than just making lucky guesses as you seem to indicate.

> > Don't tell me, talk to Shell.  They made the comment on CNBC today.  Did
> > you
> > forget about the evacuations on those platforms?
>
> And Shell owns ALL the platforms, right?

Why would they be any different than the rest of them?

> > LOL, just look at the area and the aerial pictures.  The place is a
> > disaster
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
> opportunity. All those questions and more WILL be answered by the close of
> business Friday. BET on it.

Of course they are going at it for all that they are worth but there are
limits to even what the big oil companies can do and it all costs money.
People still need food, water, and shelter and until a temporary
infrastructure can be set up to support these needs, not much is going to
happen and I doubt that business is going to close for them on Friday.

> > Try CNBC, the local news, the President, CNN....
>
> Yeah, I listed CNN as one of my sources, and here you are contradicting it.
> You list the president as a reliable source, which contradicts anything
> you've said about the man in recorced history, and expect me to believe what
> you say. Laughable at best.

LOL, believe what you want to Max, you are still wrong.  As of 10:00AM on
CNBS, 91% of crude production in the gulf has been reported as stopped which
is considered significant to me.  Reports now indicate that up to 20
platforms are missing and the ones still there are just beginning to undergo
inspections.  So  much for minor damage.

> Please post 25 times in response to this, I want to see you top 100
> worthless posts to this thread.

PKB.  BTW, you are getting very predictable and it has become expected that
when you find yourself on the losing end of an argument or discussion that
you begin saying things like you did above.

Signature

If at first you don't succeed,  you're not cut out for skydiving

Max Dodge - 01 Sep 2005 23:36 GMT
> LOL, yea, within their 100 mile cone of uncertainty.  The problem with
> that
> is that 100 miles makes a HUGE difference in the amount of damage.  You do
> know that, right?  And on top of that, do you really want tankers in port
> with an approaching hurricane?

The only problem with a 100 mile wide prediction is foolish people who
gamble regardless. If you find that a hurricane is tracked within 100 miles
of you, get the f.ck out, its that damn simple. Its also very wise, given
that even within that 100 miles damage is inevitable, no matter the level.
You do know that, right?

As to the tankers, WTF, are there no other ports? I think we've done this
Q&A before. You do know THAT, right?

>> Yeah, and everyone knows a hurricane over water gathers strength.
>
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> that
> it became.

Actually, it was a Cat 4 when it hit landfall, according to the Weather
Channel, less than Camille, which was a Cat 5. However, I fail to see what
diffference 131 MPH or 155MPH makes to most buildings; both will knock the
crap out of a house. Thus your point about what category Katrina may have
been is... well moot at best.

> Yea, within their 100 mile possible deviation and no idea of how strong it
> might become.

Well, they predicted a strong Cat 4, and thats what it was. They had a track
that put it well into the Gulf and turning north, and thats what it did. I'm
amused that you are blaming the supposed inaccuracy of the NOAA and the
Hurricane Center for your inability to prove a totally different point.

> And you claim that he is right about everything and now he is lying, LOL.
> That door swings both ways Maxi.  The difference here is that the damage
> is
> obvious and the reports back him up this time.

Never said he was lying, I just figure on most things he's a mouth piece
trying to say the right thing. I find it amusing that you, OTOH, will blast
him for anything, then rely on his words to prove your weak points. BTW, if
you recall, I have said over and over that he was wrong to invade Iraq,
although I can see positives to having done so. But you knew that, right?

>> And Shell owns ALL the platforms, right?
>
> Why would they be any different than the rest of them?

Because different compaines have different operating policies, different
locations, and different equipment. But you knew that, right?

> Of course they are going at it for all that they are worth but there are
> limits to even what the big oil companies can do and it all costs money.
> People still need food, water, and shelter and until a temporary
> infrastructure can be set up to support these needs, not much is going to
> happen and I doubt that business is going to close for them on Friday.

Ya know, if an oil company can feed, house, and employ hundreds of men
60-100 miles out to sea, I'll bet they can do the same on land. Its not
gonna be as difficult as you make it out to be.

> LOL, believe what you want to Max, you are still wrong.  As of 10:00AM on
> CNBS, 91% of crude production in the gulf has been reported as stopped
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> undergo
> inspections.  So  much for minor damage.

I was speaking about the refineries. So far, you haven't mentioned anything
about them, you just keep dodging the issue and talking about other stuff.
So they lost 20 out of 950, its still not the major losses you claim.

Had a chat with my broker today. I asked him what he thought of the oil
prices. He said he figured the Gulf and Katrina were minor factors in a
global economy and that prices were up for now due to the storm, but would
gradually tail off in October, but never be lower than $2 a gallon again. He
also took issue with the predicted $4 per gallon, saying he felt that
perhaps eventually it would go there, but not in the forseeable future. He
mentioned that refineries were running at near capacity, but that he
expected the companies would bounce back fairly easily on that issue.

This guy has made a small fortune for my grandparents, thus I don't
particularly give a damn if you take issue with what he says. As far as I
can see, he knows his sh.t, and thats good enough for me.

Please continue your posting frenzy, and be sure to insult my dead
grandparents and their very much alive broker while you are at it.

Signature

Max

Give a man a match, and he is warm for a short while. Light him on fire, and
he is warm for the rest of his life.

>> > LOL, can you really be this stupid.  Hurricanes are just about
> impossible
[quoted text clipped - 146 lines]
> when you find yourself on the losing end of an argument or discussion that
> you begin saying things like you did above.
miles - 01 Sep 2005 01:58 GMT
>>As to the president, we all know why he's considering it. Political favor,
>>insurance in keeping a good economy, etc.

Tell us why Gore wanted to tap the reserves when gas prices rose during
his campaign?  Tell us how it wasn't pure politics.

> Now the
> President has said that he WILL tap the strategic reserves which would (if
> the price was driven up by pure speculation) cause a major price drop and
> again, that didn't happen.  A $2.00 price drop means NOTHING and today, the
> price held at $70 a barrel.

Geez TBone are you that ignorant?  A puny release of US oil reserves to
help a few local refineries isn't going to affect the global futures
price of oil more than the $2 it did.  Domestic oil prices flucuate only
short term and will always follow the global futures market for the
longer term.
Max Dodge - 01 Sep 2005 02:41 GMT
>>>As to the president, we all know why he's considering it. Political
>>>favor,
>>>insurance in keeping a good economy, etc.

The above are my words.

Regardless, there are two reasons for a president to tap the reserves, 1)
political favor, 2) economic gain or stability.