> One of these days, we're going to run out of oil. When is a question
> since nobody really knows how much there is down there. Before it gets
> to that point, there will be war.... MAJOR war.... for control of
> what little may remain.... unless an alternative is found. Thus
> nature's normal balance will be returned through the loss of so many
> billions of people.
> All the programs the US government provides won't mean diddly. BUT, if
> a government program was instituted to convert to actually green
> power, combined with government incentives for homeowners, business
> owners, etc to convert to green solutions, we might last a bit longer.
>
> The future kinda looks like the new movie release... "10,000BC" :0)
SNIP
>>>> NOTE: According to a recent agricultural report....
>>>> the US could not possibly produce enough corn to alleviate foreign
[quoted text clipped - 21 lines]
>1,000 years. There is plenty of fossil fuel to last until we come up
>with a cheaper more environmentally friendly alternative.
While I agree there are additional resources, it's what can easily be
converted that will go first, and when that form runs low the panic
will be widespread. If you can't fly the planes, or power the ships,
etc, for international trade, it's a major concern. Recall that the
USA provides a wealth of the worlds breadbasket resources, just as
Asia does the rice commodity. Starvation can drive people to do a lot
of things.
I look back to the effects which drove Japan to WW2, no resources of
their own.... and Germany (aside from bitterness over the WW1
armistice ) they too lack access to fuels.
Now the Russians, reverting to the old USSR ideals, are building
pipelines into Europe which the Euros will become hooked on....
>I don't think war can remove several billion people from the planet.
>Plagues, viruses and starvation are Nature's most efficient ways of
>correcting imbalances. I don't see mankind bucking that trend forever.
When the time comes, we won't be talking the wars of the past. As for
the numbers, the following famines, diseases, climate change impacts,
etc, will remove a good share.
>> All the programs the US government provides won't mean diddly. BUT, if
>> a government program was instituted to convert to actually green
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
>the price of oil keeps rising it will happen sooner than later. China
>and India developing at a ferocious pace will insure it.
But will it happen in time? I have grave doubts and I'm not exactly a
pessimist. But we are living in dangerous times.
Michael Johnson - 07 Mar 2008 13:28 GMT
> SNIP
>>>>> NOTE: According to a recent agricultural report....
[quoted text clipped - 27 lines]
> Asia does the rice commodity. Starvation can drive people to do a lot
> of things.
The oil won't just disappear one day. It will be a gradual process of
less resources for more users. Also, at $100/barrel, there is a lot of
oil in the ground that is financially feasible to retrieve at that
price. We are seeing the beginning of serious transitions to renewable
technologies. It will take several years to get to a point where it
supplies an appreciable portion of our energy but it will occur. There
is plenty of oil to go around while this transition takes place in this
country and Europe.
> I look back to the effects which drove Japan to WW2, no resources of
> their own.... and Germany (aside from bitterness over the WW1
> armistice ) they too lack access to fuels.
The advent of nuclear weapons have changed changed the fundamentals of
warfare. We haven't had a major war since the atomic age because there
are no winners in a conflict where nukes are exchanged. Even with
conventional warfare the weapons are so powerful, and precise, that
large scale conflict is a net losing proposition for almost every
country that would initiate it. China has too much infrastructure to
lose in the event of a war as do we. One hundred well placed cruise
missiles targeting dams, power plants, distribution networks etc. would
wreak havoc on China as the same would on us.
> Now the Russians, reverting to the old USSR ideals, are building
> pipelines into Europe which the Euros will become hooked on....
Europe has made the most progress in going with renewable energy
technologies. They are hooked on oil for now but 50 years in the future
will be a new game for them, IMO, as it will be for us too.
>> I don't think war can remove several billion people from the planet.
>> Plagues, viruses and starvation are Nature's most efficient ways of
>> correcting imbalances. I don't see mankind bucking that trend forever.
> When the time comes, we won't be talking the wars of the past. As for
> the numbers, the following famines, diseases, climate change impacts,
> etc, will remove a good share.
When one looks at the pattern of population growth in countries with
varying degrees of standard of living there is a very clear pattern that
emerges. As the standard of living increases population growth slows
and even turns negative at some point. This is seen in Europe, Japan
and even the USA. We have a net population increase only due to
immigration (both legal and illegal).
If mankind can keep it together while the standard of living for the
rest of the world improves then our species footprint on the planet
should start to recede. China is removing their one child policy
because they see the effects an improved standard of living is having of
population growth. Improvements in their overall standard of living is
doing more to limit population growth than any government imposed
policy. This phenomenon of reduced population growth tied to standard
of living increases might just be what saves our a.ses in the long term.
>>> All the programs the US government provides won't mean diddly. BUT, if
>>> a government program was instituted to convert to actually green
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> But will it happen in time? I have grave doubts and I'm not exactly a
> pessimist. But we are living in dangerous times.
I think it will happen in time. There are plenty of fossil fuels to go
around for some time. We have a lot of oil we can go after here but the
environmentalists have kept us from retrieving it. Add to this the
eventual harvesting of methane hydrate and future finds of oil fields
and we can extend our grace period for several decades, IMO. Just look
at the technology increases we have seen during the last 100 years. Who
in 1900 would have conceived the technology we have today? Think what
will be around 100 years from now. I expect fusion reactors will be the
norm.
Have you heard of the mining of helium3 from the moon? I watched a show
about it the other day and it was fascinating. One space shuttle load
of helium3 (50,000 lbs.) from the moon would supply the energy needs of
the entire USA for one year. It is estimated that the moon has one
million tons of helium3 in its top soil layer. Also, the Sun is the the
ultimate source of helium3 and the reason the Earth has little of it is
due to its magnetic field shielding us from the solar winds. Maybe the
way of the future is to send out robot ships to circle the Sun to
collect helium3 from the solar wind and then return to Earth. Now that
would be a truly unlimited source of energy. Helium3 also produces very
little radioactive byproducts and makes the fusion process much easier
to achieve. Like I said, who can say what technology will be available
to us in 100 years.