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Car Forum / Ford / Ford Mustang / September 2005Gas price whiners
China is driving oil prices since THEY are the new part of the demand equation. If you think it's just gas, take a look at the price of steel, aluminum and other materials they are consuming. They've doubled in less than two years as well. Welcome to the new World. But, if you don't like it, move to Argentina. Gas is subsidized and a tank will cost you (believe it or not) $2.00!!! Of course, you're wages are likely to be a little lower. :) Or, if you think high gas prices are good for your environmental cause, move to England where a tank will run you $90.00. Oh yeah; Your wages will be lower in England too, so with houses in London costing $1m+, get used to the idea of a 400 square foot flat and the term, "roommate." -Rich "Bittorrents are REFUNDS for all the BAD movie products Hollywood never gave us refunds for in the past" WTF are you rattling on about??? Gas prioces are high.... our respective governments are reaping huge windfalls through royalties and taxes. Less than 2000 meters beneath my feet, is a huge puddle of the stuff gasoline is made from. Sure, there is a matter of supply and demandbut looka here.... Right now, I'm paying 99.9 cents per liter for regular gas.... and the reason the price is that low is because the signs don't go any higher. Right now, the business signage companies are in town doing a bang up business installing new signs. FWIW, 99.9 per liter is around 4 bucks a gallon.... when I was younger, I had cars that couldn't hold 4 bucks worth of gas. Am I upset about gas prices? You bet!!! Do I reserve the right to "whine" about gas prices.... damned right.... and I'll stop when you start paying for my gasoline... > China is driving oil prices since THEY are the new part > of the demand equation. If you think it's just gas, take [quoted text clipped - 13 lines] > "Bittorrents are REFUNDS for all the BAD movie products Hollywood > never gave us refunds for in the past" Jim, I don't blame you for bitching. It's sad when you pay more for a gallon of gas than we do here in the US considering all the oil we import from Canada. Who, or what, is responsible for it? > WTF are you rattling on about??? > [quoted text clipped - 30 lines] >>"Bittorrents are REFUNDS for all the BAD movie products Hollywood >>never gave us refunds for in the past" I think it is pure and simple price gouging.... Our government exacts a cruel tax on petroleum products and the refineries charge what they an get away with. I had my own gas station for several years.... this was a leased premise scenario.... My service rep would never allow me to move my prices down.... no matter what the local price was, I would never make enough for the gas bar to pay for itself (I was allowed a little over 3 cents per litre.... anything else, the oil company took. I could move my price down if I wanted to take a sh*t kicking but, if I started a gas war, my oil company wouldn't help me out. Heck, if the guy down the street started a gas war, my oil company wouldn't help me out. I'm not sure of the exacxt number here in Alberta (it varies province to province) but about 40% of our gasoline price is taxes.... IIRC, the world price on a barrel of oil is based on west Texas crude....high quality crude can go for higher and lower quality crude can go for lower.... the chemist have us there since they can determine what products are easily extracted from the base and which products will require special treatment such as catalyst treating....What it boils down to is like being a farmer.... a farmer might get $200 for a good steer,,,, the butcher can turn that steer into over $1000 worth of meat. If the butcher sticks to his guns, he can always find a farmer that will part with a good steer for cheap. Crude oil producers have the oprion of shutting in a well if it can't pay for itself. There are regulations regarding this though I am unsure of what it all entails.... to permanently shut in a well take bucks... lot's of bucks. The refineries offer a price for the wells production... If the refinery is running above their break even dollar, the price they offer goes down.... If the refinery is operating at max production level (sometimes as high as 125%), the price offered can go way down. Long story made short.... the government makes out like jack the bear since they dont have to do anything other than pass another levy.... The refinery (and it's shareholders... some of whom appear to be politicians) makes out like jack the bear.... The consumer suffers real bad and the producer counts pennies (but still does much better than the consumer). Sorry to ramble. Michael, but this is a real sore subject with me.... I don't mind companies making "healthy" profits.... I just don't like having to bring my own vaseline.... > Jim, I don't blame you for bitching. It's sad when you pay more for a > gallon of gas than we do here in the US considering all the oil we [quoted text clipped - 34 lines] > >>"Bittorrents are REFUNDS for all the BAD movie products Hollywood > >>never gave us refunds for in the past" Sounds like you have the government jacking the price up beyond what we have due to the much higher tax rate. I thought our rates are ridiculous! Here I think New York has about the highest gasoline tax rate at a little over 30%. Most states are around 20-22%. Just like here, I don't understand why you Canadians let your politicians continually rape you on high taxes. Considering Canada is a net exporter of oil makes high gasoline prices even more disgusting, IMO. > I think it is pure and simple price gouging.... Our government exacts a > cruel tax on petroleum products and the refineries charge what they an get [quoted text clipped - 91 lines] >>>>"Bittorrents are REFUNDS for all the BAD movie products Hollywood >>>>never gave us refunds for in the past" I'm sure Canadians allow their politicians to rape them on high taxes for pretty much the same reasons we US citizens allow our politicians to rape us. > Sounds like you have the government jacking the price up beyond what > we have due to the much higher tax rate. I thought our rates are [quoted text clipped - 109 lines] >>>>>"Bittorrents are REFUNDS for all the BAD movie products Hollywood >>>>>never gave us refunds for in the past" Too true! I doubt if any politician or party has ever run on the "We're gonna rape you! (over and over)" platform. well 'cept mebbe Clinton.... ;-) > I'm sure Canadians allow their politicians to rape them on high taxes > for pretty much the same reasons we US citizens allow our politicians > to rape us.  SignatureJafo '02 GT Black Not eggzackly stock. The run on that platform every time. It's just in the fine print no one bothers to read. ;) > Too true! I doubt if any politician or party has ever run on the "We're > gonna rape you! (over and over)" platform. [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] >>for pretty much the same reasons we US citizens allow our politicians >>to rape us. Ah, so _that's_ what that tiny print says! Time for new glasses... > The run on that platform every time. It's just in the fine print no > one bothers to read. ;) [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] >>>taxes for pretty much the same reasons we US citizens allow our >>>politicians to rape us. >Sounds like you have the government jacking the price up beyond what we >have due to the much higher tax rate. I thought our rates are [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] >continually rape you on high taxes. Considering Canada is a net >exporter of oil makes high gasoline prices even more disgusting, IMO. I've often thought that, but once your government becomes the biggest "business" in the country, they tend to want to keep it that way and NEVER scale back. They also do what they please with the money they rake in. The Canadian population is too used to the nanny state to object. The only thing that will change it is a popular revolution and that is very unlikely. -Rich "Bittorrents are REFUNDS for all the BAD movie products Hollywood never gave us refunds for in the past" > Sounds like you have the government jacking the price up beyond what we > have due to the much higher tax rate. I thought our rates are ridiculous! [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > high taxes. Considering Canada is a net exporter of oil makes high > gasoline prices even more disgusting, IMO. Here in Finland there's 75% tax in gasoline =) And now regular gas costs 1.329E / litre >>Sounds like you have the government jacking the price up beyond what we >>have due to the much higher tax rate. I thought our rates are ridiculous! [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > Here in Finland there's 75% tax in gasoline =) > And now regular gas costs 1.329E / litre Damn! What percentage of the population owns a car there? >> Here in Finland there's 75% tax in gasoline =) >> And now regular gas costs 1.329E / litre > > Damn! What percentage of the population owns a car there? Like 80% =) Finland is country with long distances (and bad public transportation network) and car is "must" here. Only in southern parts there's good train/bus network. Few years ago in summer there was a lot of V8 USA made cars on the roads. Now days only few people have money to use regularly big engine cars. I have driven my '66 Mustang only few thousand kilometers in this summer because of high gas prices. >>>Here in Finland there's 75% tax in gasoline =) >>>And now regular gas costs 1.329E / litre [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > I have driven my '66 Mustang only few thousand kilometers in this summer > because of high gas prices. The next question is why does the public let the government soak them on gasoline taxes? What are the income tax rates there? >>>>Here in Finland there's 75% tax in gasoline =) >>>>And now regular gas costs 1.329E / litre [quoted text clipped - 11 lines] > The next question is why does the public let the government soak them on > gasoline taxes? What are the income tax rates there? That's good question, car owners have been punished for ages by goverment here. There's high gas tax, high insurence cost,high new car tax / used car import tax and "temporary" car tax once in a year. And also I need to mention high diesel tax once a year. If all tax would go to make road network better that would be fine but about 10% of all collected taxes go to that. Car owners here are too nice to attack goverment and go barricades, it's always been like that :( I think income tax average is here like 45-50% Good example as our high new car tax is 05 Mustang. If u could buy new 05 here it would cost over 50000 euros (nearly 60000$) so it's no wonder why nobody wants to import those here. >>>>Here in Finland there's 75% tax in gasoline =) >>>>And now regular gas costs 1.329E / litre [quoted text clipped - 11 lines] >The next question is why does the public let the government soak them on >gasoline taxes? What are the income tax rates there? Because they want all those nice "free" givernment social programs. Ya know like the liberals here keep pushing for. -- Please Don't Steal - The Government Hates Competition ZombyWoof (take the dogs when replying via e-mail) KEEPING THE PRICE OF GAS DOWN I hear we are going to hit close to $3.00 a gallon by the end of summer. Want gasoline prices to come down? We need to take some intelligent, united action. Read to the end. Phillip Hollsworth, offered this good idea: This makes MUCH MORE SENSE than the "don't buy gas on a certain day" campaign that was going around last April or May! The oil companies just laughed at that because they knew we wouldn't continue to "hurt" ourselves by refusing to buy gas. It was more of an inconvenience to us than it was a problem for them. BUT, whoever thought of this idea, has! come up with a plan that can really work. Please read it and join with us! By now you're probably thinking gasoline priced at under $2.00 is super cheap. Me too! It is currently $2.75 for regular unleaded in my town. Now that the oil companies and the OPEC nations have conditioned us to think that the cost of a gallon of gas is CHEAP at $1.50-$1.95, we need to take aggressive action to teach them that BUYERS control the marketplace.... not sellers. With the price of gasoline going up more each day, we consumers need to take action. The only way we are going to see the price of gas come down is if we hit someone in the pocketbook by not purchasing their gas! And we can do that WITHOUT hurting ourselves. How? Since we all rely on our cars,! we can't just stop buying gas. But we CAN have an impact on gas prices if we all act together to force a price war. Here's the idea: For the rest of this year, DON"T purchase ANY gasoline from the two biggest companies which now are one), EXXON and MOBIL. If they are not selling any gas, they will be inclined to reduce their prices. If they reduce their prices, the other companies will have to follow suit. But to have an impact, we need to reach literally millions of Exxon and Mobil gas buyers. It's really simple to do!! Now, don't whimp (sic) out on me at this point... keep reading and I'll explain how simple it is to reach millions of people!! If each of you send it to at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300)...and those 300 send it to at least ten! More (300 x 10 =3,000) ... and so on, by the time the message reaches the sixth generation of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION consumers! If those three million get excited and pass this on to ten friends each, then 30 million people will have been contacted! If it goes one level further, you guessed it.... THREE HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE!!! Again, all you have to do is send this to 10 people and DON'T purchase ANY gasoline from EXXON and MOBIL. That's all. How long would all that take? If each of us sends this email out to ten more people within one day of receipt, all 300 MILLION people could conceivably be contacted within the next 8 days!!! I'll bet you didn't think you and I had that much potential, did you! Acting together we an make a difference. If this makes sense to you, please pass this message on. EXXON AND MOBIL gas isn't any better than the other brands out there. PLEASE HOLD OUT UNTIL THEY LOWER THEIR PRICES TO THE $1.50 RANGE AND KEEP THEM DOWN. THIS CAN REALLY WORK! You need to learn marketing 101 regarding supply and demand. If you don't increase supply or decrease demand you will not effect the price. You evidently don't know that the companies other than Exxon and Mobil will RAISE the price of their gas due to the increased demand. Exxon and Mobil won't have to lower their prices at all because they will have the lowest price by default. Plus, where do you think these small gas stations get their petroleum products? It is from the big companies. The big boys will make money regardless. If you want to lower the price of gasoline then increase the supply and/or lower the demand. It's real simple. > KEEPING THE PRICE OF GAS DOWN > I hear we are going to hit close to $3.00 a [quoted text clipped - 49 lines] > out there. PLEASE HOLD OUT UNTIL THEY LOWER THEIR PRICES > TO THE $1.50 RANGE AND KEEP THEM DOWN. THIS CAN REALLY WORK! > You need to learn marketing 101 regarding supply and demand. If you > don't increase supply or decrease demand you will not effect the price. [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > of gasoline then increase the supply and/or lower the demand. It's real > simple. Well yes and no. My Master's thesis (The structural determinates of gasoline shortages in the US by PAD's) in 1974 following the supply crisis of 1972/3 examined a multitude of variables. Interestingly, the only statistically significant variable that explained price changes in the study was market share. This may not be true today and may explain why there is little if any difference in price between the majors in any given market area. Attempts to buy market share by lowering the price is immediately matched by the competition. Market share today is probably driven by marketing hype ( my additives are better than yours). Another thing about gasoline production. IIRC when you refine that barrel of crude about 60% of the distillate will be gasoline leaving the balance for all the other distillates and the crud (bunker and asphalt). I'm not sure but that may mean that the internal combustion engine will always be needed unless another viable use for gasoline is found. SignatureRichard '94 GT 'vert Under Drive Pulleys Transgo HD2 Reprogramming Kit High Stall Torque Converter 4:10 Gears Gripp Sub Frame Connectors (welded) FRPP Aluminum Drive shaft FRPP M5400-A Suspension Laser Red Personally, I think part (not nearly all) of the problem is the 4,423,452 different "blends" of gas that are all over the country. You drive up to a pump these days, and you will see 87, 89, 91, 92 octane. Unless your owners manual says so, 99.9% of the vehicles produced today run perfectly (and are designed) to run on 87 octane. That, and the blended fuels that the enviromentalist, and EPA have forced on consumers in different parts of the country have effectively screwed up the supply delivery of fuels across the country. If there is a "surplus" of gas in the upper midwest, and a shortage of fuel say in southern California, the excess cannot be piped through the nationwide pipeline distrubution system because it isn't "compatible" with their blend. THANKFULLY, the head of the EPA wednesday, put a temporary stop to that and mandated that the fuel blends won't matter until the current "crisis" is over (it's set to expire on Sept 15th). Yes, I think part of the "suv" craze might be coming to an end. Heck the bulk of these vehicles are never driven in 4WD, or off road anyway. part of this has to be the "keep up with the Jones" mentality of the population. Do I think SUV's should be outlawed...nope...I just think it's silly to have one, but I won't stop someone from owning one if that is their choice. I'm sure that europe is laughing that we are finally paying "our fare share" since our gas has been cheap, compared to europe. I think that we as a nation missed our chance in the 70's to become independent of the mideast oil, but rampant enviromentalism wacko mentality stopped it. Maybe we can tell the tree huggers and snail darter idiots out there that we should come first. Heck, even if and when we have (as they like to put it) an enviromental "disaster", we clean it up better than anyone in the rest of the world. We are sitting on tons upon tons of oil...but we can't pump it out of the ground. We haven' built a refinery plant in almost 30 years in this country because of the "not in my back yard" mentality of the public. Maybe that can end to. Too much political correctness and wacko envromentalism are mostly, but not all of where the blame should be. >Well yes and no. My Master's thesis (The structural determinates of gasoline >shortages in the US by PAD's) in 1974 following the supply crisis of 1972/3 [quoted text clipped - 11 lines] >but that may mean that the internal combustion engine will always be needed >unless another viable use for gasoline is found. Following that idea, the other companies will have increased sales. They will need to get fuel to cover those increases. So they buy from the ones who have fuels that are not moving. Besides, no movement of this sort has really ever attracted enough people to make it work. People need fuel and the oil companies know it. Just like the food companies know people need to eat. The higher prices suck, and hurt, but, we have maintained the cheapest fuels in the western world for decades. Ask anyone who lives in Japan, Portugal, Finland, etc, what they pay per LITER. Be very thankful they have not found a way to charge you for every breath of air you take. >KEEPING THE PRICE OF GAS DOWN >I hear we are going to hit close to $3.00 a [quoted text clipped - 49 lines] >out there. PLEASE HOLD OUT UNTIL THEY LOWER THEIR PRICES >TO THE $1.50 RANGE AND KEEP THEM DOWN. THIS CAN REALLY WORK! Spike 1965 Ford Mustang fastback 2+2 A Code 289 C4 Trac-Lok Vintage Burgundy w/Black Standard Interior; Vintage 40 16" rims w/BF Goodrich Comp T/A gForce Radial 225/50ZR16 KDWS skins; surround sound audio-video. Gad what fools these morons be.... Children are obscene but should not be heard Give me a peperoni pizza... or give me a calzone! >I think it is pure and simple price gouging.... Our government exacts a >cruel tax on petroleum products and the refineries charge what they an get [quoted text clipped - 19 lines] >into over $1000 worth of meat. If the butcher sticks to his guns, he can >always find a farmer that will part with a good steer for cheap. Speaking of this. How come during the height of the "mad cow" scare when no one wanted Canadian beef, CANADIANS were being charged $39/kilo in some cases for top end steak? I HATE fixed markets. -Rich "Bittorrents are REFUNDS for all the BAD movie products Hollywood never gave us refunds for in the past" > the government makes out like jack the bear since > they dont have to do anything other than pass another levy. I'm not so sure about that. Here's in California they list the gas taxes at the stations. It appearsa to be a fixed rate per gallon, so price increases do not feed the state any more than normal, and there's no sales tax on gas... >>the government makes out like jack the bear since >>they dont have to do anything other than pass another levy. > > there's no sales tax on gas... Yes there is. It's called the Gas Tax. ;) > Yes there is. It's called the Gas Tax. ;) Yeah, it's not a percentage tax. It's flat. > Who, or what, is responsible for it? It's the traders on the oil markets reacting to world event. For example, the hurricane today has caused several refineries to be shut down. That drove the price sike past $70 per barrler. And you don't just start those refineries up in one day when the sun comes out again. Everyone is always looking for a conspiracy, but the truth is pretty much right out in the open. Futures markets and global demand (China, as Rich said, being a big factor). Sorry, folks, but there really are no secret global cabals (or at least none worth spending any brain cells on). Civilization is sort of boring that way. >> Who, or what, is responsible for it? > >It's the traders on the oil markets reacting to world event. For >example, the hurricane today has caused several refineries to be shut >down. That drove the price sike past $70 per barrler. And you don't >just start those refineries up in one day when the sun comes out again. For some reason I just can't wrap my pea brain around why a refinery being shutdown would cause the product they consume to go up. Logic would dictate that it would go down as it is not being consumed while the refinery is shut down. Also, refineries have a finite capacity to convert oil to gas. Once that capacity is reached they can't consume any more oil to convert. If the wells are still pumping it out and the refineries are at maximum, where the hell is all the crude going to go (yes I know other markets), but it is our refinery capacity more then anything else that impacts supply & demand for refined fuel. >Everyone is always looking for a conspiracy, but the truth is pretty >much right out in the open. Futures markets and global demand (China, [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] >none worth spending any brain cells on). Civilization is sort of boring >that way. -- Please Don't Steal - The Government Hates Competition ZombyWoof (take the dogs when replying via e-mail) In California, when a refinery goes down, the law of supply and demand continues. So, if one less refinery is providing product, this would tend to indicate less supply, with continued stable to increasing demand. The price rises. I have heard that refineries tend to process at maximum prior to shutting down in order to stockpile while off line. Seems like here (Calif) the refineries don't plan to shut down. They have fires, and other breakdowns which are "unexpected". The crude produced in the Gulf of Mexico right now is facing similar circumstance. Many of the rigs were damaged and output to refineries is greatly reduced. According to differing reports, this could account for between 17 and 24% of US usage. And it is estimated that is may take several months before everything is back to full capacity. That is going to decrease supply, even if demand remains stable, so prices will rise. One of the oil company heads stated that he does not believe that the price per barrel can be sustained at $70, or $60, or even $50 per barrel. That the price must come down or the world faces a major change in societal structure. Then he said that he has been wrong before. >>> Who, or what, is responsible for it? >> [quoted text clipped - 20 lines] >>none worth spending any brain cells on). Civilization is sort of boring >>that way. Spike 1965 Ford Mustang fastback 2+2 A Code 289 C4 Trac-Lok Vintage Burgundy w/Black Standard Interior; Vintage 40 16" rims w/BF Goodrich Comp T/A gForce Radial 225/50ZR16 KDWS skins; surround sound audio-video. Gad what fools these morons be.... Children are obscene but should not be heard Give me a peperoni pizza... or give me a calzone! > For some reason I just can't wrap my pea brain around why a refinery > being shutdown would cause the product they consume to go up. Futures markets react when someone in Ulan Bator sneezes. Go figure. >WTF are you rattling on about??? > [quoted text clipped - 12 lines] >prices? You bet!!! Do I reserve the right to "whine" about gas prices.... >damned right.... and I'll stop when you start paying for my gasoline... Then Canada should elect the first party that says "We'll cut gas taxes in half." Of course, the slimy provinces get their cut too. -Rich "Bittorrents are REFUNDS for all the BAD movie products Hollywood never gave us refunds for in the past" > Gas prioces are high.... our respective governments are reaping huge > windfalls through royalties and taxes. That's leads to the one thing I find really depressing. In all the talk of using oil reserves and increasing mileage and whatnot, I have yet to hear ANYONE (other than me) suggest cutting back on the gas taxes a bit. >>Gas prioces are high.... our respective governments are reaping huge >>windfalls through royalties and taxes. [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > whatnot, I have yet to hear ANYONE (other than me) suggest cutting back > on the gas taxes a bit. Consider having heard it from me. ;) If Ronnie Reagan were still around, he'd have said it.... : 0 ) >> Gas prioces are high.... our respective governments are reaping huge >> windfalls through royalties and taxes. [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] >whatnot, I have yet to hear ANYONE (other than me) suggest cutting back >on the gas taxes a bit. Spike 1965 Ford Mustang fastback 2+2 A Code 289 C4 Trac-Lok Vintage Burgundy w/Black Standard Interior; Vintage 40 16" rims w/BF Goodrich Comp T/A gForce Radial 225/50ZR16 KDWS skins; surround sound audio-video. Gad what fools these morons be.... Children are obscene but should not be heard Give me a peperoni pizza... or give me a calzone! > China is driving oil prices since THEY are the new part > of the demand equation. The same could be said of any and all consumers. Why single out China? > If you think it's just gas, take a look at the price of steel, > aluminum and other materials they are consuming. They've > doubled in less than two years as well. Damn those Chinee. > Welcome to the new World. It was so much better when it was just us and them - the First World and everybody else. Prices never went up in those days. No. Wait. Yeah, they did... > But, if you don't like it, move to Argentina. I think I've heard this same line used in some other instance... Give me time, it'll come back to me... > Gas is subsidized and a tank will cost you (believe it or not) $2.00!!! $2.00 Argentine, or $2.00 US? > Of course, you're wages are likely to be a little lower. :) Gas prices and corresponding wages differ all throughout the United States, too. But don't let that stop whatever point it is you're trying to make. > Or, if you think high gas prices are good for your environmental > cause, move to England where a tank will run you $90.00. If I were worried about environmental causes, I'd either stay right where I am and fight to better conditions, or I'd move to some place that had REALLY lousy environmental policies. England doesn't strike me as that place. > Oh yeah; Your wages will be lower in England too, so with houses > in London costing $1m+, get used to the idea of a 400 square foot > flat and the term, "roommate." Tell it to Madonna. Nobody here cares. dwight >> China is driving oil prices since THEY are the new part >> of the demand equation. > >The same could be said of any and all consumers. Why single out China? Because THEY are responsible for the majority of the new demand. And India. The U.S. has always been a big consumer because they produced MOST of the goods the World consumed. -Rich "Bittorrents are REFUNDS for all the BAD movie products Hollywood never gave us refunds for in the past" >>> China is driving oil prices since THEY are the new part >>> of the demand equation. [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > And India. The U.S. has always been a big consumer because they > produced MOST of the goods the World consumed. If you want to complain about business competition, too bad. The current situation has been decades in the making, ever since the first American entrepreneurs contracted the Chinese to make cheap swizzle sticks and sneakers. China's (and India's ...and Ireland's, for that matter) booming economy is a direct result of American enterprise. If you want to blame the Chinese for the rise in gasoline prices OVER THE PAST TWELVE MONTHS, then I would remind you that China existed for a few years before that. Their industry did not rise up whole in that short span of time. It's not like a billion Chinese suddenly went out and bought Chevies under GM's employee discount program, making my gasoline go from $1.50 in June 2004 to $2.70 in July 2005. dwight >>>>China is driving oil prices since THEY are the new part >>>>of the demand equation. [quoted text clipped - 17 lines] > Chevies under GM's employee discount program, making my gasoline go from > $1.50 in June 2004 to $2.70 in July 2005. Here's my take on why the price of gasoline in so high. Think of the refined oil products we consume as being stored in a huge reservoir like a water supply. Now with water, the size of the reservoir is determined by anticipating the overall demand but in addition peak usage is considered as is the possibility of a drought occurring for a given period of time. The reservoir is then sized accordingly to ensure there is a reliable water supply for the users. The oil industry has allowed the size of our oil "reservoir" to not only stay the same but to reduce as the demand has increased. We don't size the reserve to buffer the peaks and lows of the oil market. When the price of oil drops we should be stockpiling to buffer the price when it raises. Why this occurs is anyone's guess. I think it is a combination of things like oil companies maximizing profits, environmental groups/regulations making development of new oil fields impossible or impractical, regulations negatively impacting the construction of new refineries and the lack of sufficient storage facilities for crude oil and refined products. If the government would really be looking out for the welfare of the citizens they would make it easier for oil companies to build refineries and find/develop new oil fields and demand they have sufficient capacity/storage to buffer price spikes. A prime example is the government keeping the oil fields on the North Slope closed off. Also, there are many fields off the coast of California that have been made off limits because of the environmentalists. The fact is that oil can be extracted from these areas with virtually no impact on the surrounding environment. Personally, I don't believe there is a shortage of oil in the ground and there won't be for many, many decades. It is the system that extracts it and refines it that is causing the current problem. I think in 1-2 years from now the prices will stabilize and will remain that way for 10-15 years. >>>>>China is driving oil prices since THEY are the new part >>>>>of the demand equation. [quoted text clipped - 55 lines] > think in 1-2 years from now the prices will stabilize and will > remain that way for 10-15 years. I pretty much agree. They wanted the US prices to get up to around $3/gal give or take, and here we are. This new level of fuel prices and home prices combined with the fact that more people than ever are further in debt than ever before in history should make for some interesting economic times ahead. >>>>>>China is driving oil prices since THEY are the new part >>>>>>of the demand equation. [quoted text clipped - 62 lines] > that more people than ever are further in debt than ever before in > history should make for some interesting economic times ahead. The home prices are getting ready to take a dive in most areas of the country. A few areas may remain stagnant because demand will remain high. Being in the land development industry, I can see the drop in home prices coming. Existing home sales are slowing here, which is the first indicator. Also, new home sales are being driven by investors that are opting for interest only loans. They are banking on increasing home prices to justify refinancing in a few years. If that doesn't materialize then the sh.t will really hit the fan. IMO, anyone buying a house right now had better plan on living in it for the next 7-10 years. >>>>>>>China is driving oil prices since THEY are the new part >>>>>>>of the demand equation. [quoted text clipped - 70 lines] > drop in home prices coming. Existing home sales are slowing here, > which is the first indicator. It's just starting to happen down here too. > Also, new home sales are being driven > by investors that are opting for interest only loans. They are > banking on increasing home prices to justify refinancing in a few > years. If that doesn't materialize then the sh.t will really hit > the fan. IMO, the sh.t is already hitting the fan. People just don't want to see it yet, so they're pretending the air is clean. The wake up call is iminent. > IMO, anyone buying a house right now had better plan on > living in it for the next 7-10 years. Or take a nice, long bath. : The home prices are getting ready to take a dive in most areas of the : country. A few areas may remain stagnant because demand will remain [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] : that are opting for interest only loans. They are banking on increasing : home prices to justify refinancing in a few years. Every time I see one of those ads all I can think is "How stupid is THAT??" If that doesn't : materialize then the sh.t will really hit the fan. IMO, anyone buying a : house right now had better plan on living in it for the next 7-10 years. > : The home prices are getting ready to take a dive in most areas of the > : country. A few areas may remain stagnant because demand will remain [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > > Every time I see one of those ads all I can think is "How stupid is THAT??" Actually it isn't stupid if you buy at the right time. There are some investors here that bought 3-4 years ago and have made out like bandits. The smart ones have stopped buying investment homes. Now the ones that are buying think they have missed out and want to feed at the slop trough too. They are using 100% financing with interest only loans to help them qualify for the purchase and the banks are letting them do it knowing full well the risk of foreclosure. IMO, recent buyers will be lucky to break even if they sell within the next 3-5 years is the price correction happens this year. Then again I may be wrong but I do know that home values have risen about 20% per year for the last 3 years here. That can't continue without a correction in the near future. Otherwise, there will be no buyers left that can afford a home. > If you want to blame the Chinese for the rise in gasoline prices OVER THE > PAST TWELVE MONTHS, then I would remind you that China existed for a few > years before that. Their industry did not rise up whole in that short span > of time. No, but their demand for imported oil has. This has been pretty widely reported. China was an oil exporter until 1993. Their thirst for oil HAS doubled in just the past 5 years, and their domestic supplies are beginning to become depleted. They have untapped stuff in the Tarim Basin (AKA, the middle of f*cking nowhere and then some) that was not economic to bring out at $50 a barrel. Maybe $70 a barrel will give them reason to look at it again. Al lot of the things driving current prices are relatively fleeting with the exception of the China variable. You can also add India as a big source of increasing demand. Other things driving current prices. - Recent and currrent hurricanes. - More active trading in the oil futures indicitive of speculation. That will probably burn itself out, so to speak, once a few of the big players take a couple in the shorts. - Political turmoil in Venezuela. - The extreme *ahem* variablility of Iraq's supplies. - Some claim the "peak oil" effect, but I'm a little skeptical on that at the moment. It might be there as a meme affecting the trading, but it's effects is lost amongst all the others. No magic. No governemnt agendas. No secret cabals. Just natures and people being wasteful and/or stupid. Personally, I think it's a bubble. It may spiral as high as $90 or $100, but I think it'll eventually fall back to the $20 to $30 range again as things easr in Iraq & Venezuela and the weather calms down and the investors begin to bail like they did from the tech stocks. But China and India ain't goin' anywhere... > No magic. No governemnt agendas. No secret cabals. Just natures and > people being wasteful and/or stupid. [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > again as things easr in Iraq & Venezuela and the weather calms down and > the investors begin to bail like they did from the tech stocks. Nice thought but I suspect OPEC will continue to at least set the base line price for some time to come and I cannot see it being $30.00 a barrel. SignatureRichard '94 GT 'vert Under Drive Pulleys Transgo HD2 Reprogramming Kit High Stall Torque Converter 4:10 Gears Gripp Sub Frame Connectors (welded) FRPP Aluminum Drive shaft FRPP M5400-A Suspension Laser Red want to save gas. slow down. Gas companies are setting the price and fools are paying at stock market. Even OPEC says the price is too high. >> If you want to blame the Chinese for the rise in gasoline prices OVER THE >> PAST TWELVE MONTHS, then I would remind you that China existed for a few [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] >No, but their demand for imported oil has. This has been pretty widely >reported. Maybe they are stockpiling it. Part of the Great Plan. Force the enemy to spend more than it can afford, until it's system collapses under it's own weight. Sounds a bit like what happened to the USSR. >No magic. No governemnt agendas. No secret cabals. Just natures and >people being wasteful and/or stupid. I dunno about that. Those space aliens out at Area 51 might be doing something sneaky.... >Personally, I think it's a bubble. It may spiral as high as $90 or >$100, but I think it'll eventually fall back to the $20 to $30 range >again as things easr in Iraq & Venezuela and the weather calms down and >the investors begin to bail like they did from the tech stocks. One of the cable news shows interviewed one of the oil company heads, and he didn't go as low as $20-30, but he did say he didn't believe it could be sustained at even $50. >But China and India ain't goin' anywhere... Spike 1965 Ford Mustang fastback 2+2 A Code 289 C4 Trac-Lok Vintage Burgundy w/Black Standard Interior; Vintage 40 16" rims w/BF Goodrich Comp T/A gForce Radial 225/50ZR16 KDWS skins; surround sound audio-video. Gad what fools these morons be.... Children are obscene but should not be heard Give me a peperoni pizza... or give me a calzone! "dwight" <tfrog93@GEEmail.com> wrote in news:z4mdncE6Xf3vs4zeRVn- hQ@comcast.com: > The same could be said of any and all consumers. Why single out China? Because every drop of the oil that the Alaskan oil wells and pipeline are producing are being sold to the Orient. The USA imports it's oil from the Middle East at high OPEC prices, and sells what they could use internally to foreign countries. And who pays? The consumer. If anybody can't tell that this stinks, you must have dead nostrils. > "dwight" <tfrog93@GEEmail.com> wrote in news:z4mdncE6Xf3vs4zeRVn- > hQ@comcast.com: [quoted text clipped - 7 lines] > > If anybody can't tell that this stinks, you must have dead nostrils. If that's true... Sounds like every other well-meaning government program. But it's probably overly simplistic. The United States is the No. 3 oil producing country in the world, behind only Saudi Arabia and the former Soviet Union. Yet, daily production of oil and natural gas dropped last year to 7.2 million barrels per day, down 36% since its peak in 1970. (Washington Post) The Prudhoe Bay oilfields are producing nowhere near what they used to, down 75% since 1987. (75%!) How about this little snippet? "Relatively small amounts - never more than 7% - of Alaskan crude have been sold to Korea, Japan and China. Korea imports about half of this oil." Can you give me a link to a reputable source that says that "every drop...(is)...being sold to the Orient"? dwight : > China is driving oil prices since THEY are the new part : > of the demand equation. : : The same could be said of any and all consumers. Why single out China? Currently CHina IS the big glut on the market. They are the ones that have driven up the cost of most of our natural resources because of their high demand. Not just the prices of oil but of everything from timber to steel. Like locusts but we are greedy enough that we won't say no to them, nor does the rest of the world for that matter. In return, well you know what we get. Shoddy goods and unemployment. Kate > : > China is driving oil prices since THEY are the new part > : > of the demand equation. > : > : The same could be said of any and all consumers. Why single out China? > > Currently CHina IS the big glut on the market. China's markets are growing, yes, but they didn't spring up full-blown within the past year. > They are the ones that have driven up the cost of most of our natural > resources because of their high demand. [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > > In return, well you know what we get. Shoddy goods and unemployment. There you have it. China's high demand is a direct result of OUR high demand, and now we're going to complain because the hired help want a raise. Ah, for those days of really cheap and cooperative workers... Fact is, we want to spread our way of life around the world. Problem is, once we spread our way of life around the world, we're in direct competition with the world for our way of life. Damn. Still doesn't explain the huge bump in oil prices over the past year. dwight "dwight" <tfrog93@GEEmail.com> wrote in message : Damn. : : Still doesn't explain the huge bump in oil prices over the past year. : : dwight I agree, in California they always made some excuse, like this or that refinery was down. It's all just price gouging I believe, and they get away with it because the government gets their hairy little palms greased in the deal. > "dwight" <tfrog93@GEEmail.com> wrote in message > : [quoted text clipped - 10 lines] > the > government gets their hairy little palms greased in the deal. Best reason I've seen so far deals with the "peak oil" aspect - that point at which we've used up exactly half of the world's reserves, without finding sufficient new deposits to accomodate the need. In the belief that this "peak oil" point is imminent, oil futures are being bidded up beyond reality. What I could never figure out is why oil "futures" have an immediate impact on my gas pump price. My local Mobil station is up to $2.739 now for 87 octane. And, so far, no one is telling them that they CAN'T raise the price. Speaking of rising prices... I grabbed a couple of quarters and went out in search of an air pump. Every stinkin' one of 'em was asking 75 cents for three minutes of air. It's like all of the stations got together and raised the price simultaneously. So I stopped at the Mobil Minimart and asked for change for a dollar, so I could use their 75 cent air pump. The attendant told me it was free. Just push the button and get air. The thing was broken, and didn't know whether I put my quarters in or not. AND ANOTHER THING! My rearview mirror fell off in TFrog. It's been 12 years, so I guess it was due. Went to KMart and picked up my official rearview mirror adhesive kit. But it seems that Ford has changed something up on the mirror, itself. Used to be, the mirror assembly was held to the mounting bracket by a single Allen screw. Now I find that I need an official Ford Rearview Mirror Removal Tool. When the hell did this happen, and whose bright idea was that?!? To hell with it - I put the mirror back on whole. Just sitting here waiting for the glue to dry. dwight Re. "peak oil" I've been surfing again, looking at how blogs and the major media are reacting to gas prices. In some areas we are still sitting at record highs. Having been immersed in Peak Oil sites for a couple months it is easy to see gas prices as rising in the context of tightening supplies. It is easy to see today's prices as one step in a 5 or 10 year trend ... or it was ... the last month or so looks more like a bubble on top of the broader trend. Probably the most interesting thing about the surfing is that most people don't seem to see it that way, as a trend. They (quite understandably) look at price history and see that gas is sometimes high, sometimes low, and that it's high right now. The normal expectation (if you don't think of the game changing) is that prices will "return" to a low level. The $10 phrase for that is "regression to the mean" and it is a good default assumption, without any change in fundamentals. If we look at the recently passed Energy Bill, I think we see some tacit recognition of a change in fundamentals. I don't think we'd spend as many billions on ethanol and biodiesel if there was not recognition that oil will continue to get tight. If oil drilling in new places was enough to "solve" the gas price problem, I'm sure that is all we'd do. So even with some self-doubt (that I don't have the Peak Oil thing all figured out), I'm going to say that there is a little bit of a disconnect in the public mind: We launch long term plans for gasoline replacement, but we only look at gas prices month-to-month. Really, if we have national plans to replace gasoline, it must be because we expect gasoline to get (much?) more expensive over time. : > "dwight" <tfrog93@GEEmail.com> wrote in message : > : [quoted text clipped - 16 lines] : "peak oil" point is imminent, oil futures are being bidded up beyond : reality. How the hell do they KNOW when we reach the halfway mark? Do they have a fuel gauge somewhere that's attached to the earth? : What I could never figure out is why oil "futures" have an immediate impact : on my gas pump price. : : My local Mobil station is up to $2.739 now for 87 octane. And, so far, no : one is telling them that they CAN'T raise the price. Damn! That's a lotta money for regular. Of course when the holiday is over the price my drop slightly. There's a question, WHY do they ALWAYS raise the price over a long holiday? : Speaking of rising prices... : : I grabbed a couple of quarters and went out in search of an air pump. Every : stinkin' one of 'em was asking 75 cents for three minutes of air. It's like : all of the stations got together and raised the price simultaneously. I remember the day when there were two long red hoses at each end of the island. One was air and the other water. All you needed for free, OR if you went into the full serve the guy would check and fill for you. *sigh* Nowadays .75 is just SO wrong! Maybe you should get one of those cheap little air compressors from harbor freight. : So I stopped at the Mobil Minimart and asked for change for a dollar, so I : could use their 75 cent air pump. The attendant told me it was free. Just : push the button and get air. The thing was broken, and didn't know whether I : put my quarters in or not. Thanks to the clerk, saved you 3/4 of a buck! Take that off the bottom line on your fuel purchase and you got a pretty fair price on fuel! : AND ANOTHER THING! : [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] : Allen screw. Now I find that I need an official Ford Rearview Mirror Removal : Tool. When the hell did this happen, and whose bright idea was that?!? Seriously? LOL I'll be dipped! : To hell with it - I put the mirror back on whole. Just sitting here waiting : for the glue to dry. How did you hold it up there? Duct tape? LOL Poor Dwight. : dwight Yep, they do.... it's in a broom closet in Langley, VA, and is synchronized with the one in the lavatory at OPEC... : 0 ) >: > "dwight" <tfrog93@GEEmail.com> wrote in message >: > : [quoted text clipped - 81 lines] > >: dwight Spike 1965 Ford Mustang fastback 2+2 A Code 289 C4 Trac-Lok Vintage Burgundy w/Black Standard Interior; Vintage 40 16" rims w/BF Goodrich Comp T/A gForce Radial 225/50ZR16 KDWS skins; surround sound audio-video. Gad what fools these morons be.... Children are obscene but should not be heard Give me a peperoni pizza... or give me a calzone! |
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