At this rate we will be on rationing by winter

'Squawk Box' Guest Warns of $12-15-a-Gallon Gas
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20080521145247.aspx

 It may be the mother of all doom and gloom gas price predictions: $12
for a gallon of gas is “inevitable.”

     Robert Hirsch, Management Information Services Senior Energy
Advisor, gave a dire warning about the potential future of gas prices on
CNBC’s May 20 “Squawk Box”. He told host Becky Quick there was no single
thing that would solve the problem, due to the enormity of the problem.

     “[T]he prices that we’re paying at the pump today are, I think,
going to be ‘the good old days,’ because others who watch this very
closely forecast that we’re going to be hitting $12 and $15 per gallon,”
Hirsch said. “And then, after that, when oil – world oil production goes
into decline, we’re going to talk about rationing. In other words, not
only are we going to be paying high prices and have considerable
economic problems, but in addition to that, we’re not going to be able
to get the fuel when we want it.”

     Hirsch told the Business & Media Institute the $12-$15 a gallon
wasn’t his prediction, but that he was citing Charles T. Maxwell,
described as the “Dean of Oil Analysts” and the senior energy analyst at
Weeden & Co. Still, Hirsch admitted the high price was inevitable in his
view.

     “I don’t attempt to predict oil prices because it’s been
impossible in the past,” Hirsch said in an e-mail. “We’re into a new era
now, and over the next roughly five years the trend will be up
significantly. However, there may be dips and bumps that no one can
forecast; I wouldn’t be at all surprised. To me the multi-year upswing
is inevitable.”

     Maxwell’s original $12-15-a-gallon prediction came in a February 5
interview with Energytechstocks.com, a Web site run by two former Wall
Street Journal staffers.

     “[Maxwell] expects an oil-induced financial crisis to start
somewhere in the 2010 to 2015 timeframe,” Energytechstocks.com reported.
“He said that, unlike the recession the U.S. appears to be in today,
‘This will not be six months of hell and then we come out of it.’
Rather, Maxwell expects this financial crisis to last at least 10 or 12
years, as the world goes through a prolonged period of price-induced
rationing (eg, oil up to $300 a barrel and U.S. pump prices up to $15 a
gallon).”

     According to associate of Maxwell at Weeden & Co., Maxwell is out
of the country and currently unavailable for comment.

     Maxwell’s biography on the Weeden & Co. Web site said he “has been
ranked by the U.S. financial institutions as the No. 1 oil analyst for
the years 1972, 1974, 1977 and 1981-1986,” according to polls taken by
Institutional Investor magazine.

     “In addition, for the last 17 years he has been an active member
of an Oxford-based organization comprised of OPEC and other industry
executives from 30 countries who meet twice a year to discuss trends
within the energy industry.”

     Although Maxwell’s prediction is for the long-term, not everyone
supports high-end predictions, even in the short-term. CNBC contributor
and the vice president of risk management for MF Global (NYSE:MF) John
Kilduff said on  “The Call” May 7that he expected gas prices to drop
following the Chinese Olympics, as China’s economic boom slows down.