Price of a barrel of crude oil on Labor Day weekend 2006?

$35.00 per barrel.

Average price of a gallon of gas will be on Labor Day weekend 2006?

$5.59 per gallon.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.  I predict we'll never see gas
fall to under $2.00 per gallon again--no matter what it's selling for
"per barrel".  The oil companies are getting the price up where they
want it, and they'll fight to keep it there even if they have to shut
refineries down to create a crisis.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it:)

Mark

I'm thinking Forbes is a bit of an optimust.

Oil just under $40 a barrel

Gas around $1.75.

Jeff DeWitt

HMMMMMMM-
didn't Forbes make a go for the presidency awhile back???

Jim

The availability of crude oil is not the problem with our domestic market
right now.  Refinery capacity has been limited because of governmental
policy decisions and investment money flow since the mid 1970's.  The last
new refinery went on line in the U.S. in the late 1970's.

Until the refinery bottleneck is cured or demand falls, the price of
gasoline will remain higher than it's relationship to the price of crude.
It will take a couple years for new refining capacity to get online and have
an impact.  I suppose it could be done faster if the governmental red tape
could be pushed aside and investors could be confident it's a sound move.

My personal opinion is that investors are skittish to invest in new refining
capacity because of possible alternative fuel developments, and the fact the
oil industry has been widely viewed as "politically incorrect" since the
1970's.  Although there are more cars on the road today, they are more fuel
efficient than those of decades past, and that has buffered the
corresponding increase in demand that could have occurred.  But, that payoff
is about tapped out, both in raw numbers, and in any future reductions
through efficiency.

Alternative fuel technologies that have been developed (like ethanol) use
more energy to produce their product than they yield in a usable fuel, and
they can't compete without subsidy, even at today's prices.  (Tons and tons
of coal or natural gas are used to heat the corn "soup" to make ethanol, for
example).  Other fuels would require significant changes in the delivery
infrastructure.

Higher prices should draw new oil refinery capacity to market, if the
government and public will allow it.  Environmental groups certainly will
block any new oil related capacity, as they have for 30 years.  If they oil
objectors remain successful, some alternative fuel system will eventually
become cheaper than oil.  The harder they block, the sooner it will happen.
And, the more severe, costly and sudden the transition will be for us all.

My hope is the market is allowed to cure itself.  It took us 30 years to
create this problem.  It won't go away in less than a year.

Rising fuel prices are actually a sign of real growth.  An economic
recession would certainly take pressure off prices.

My guess for fuel and crude prices next year:

Crude $40-$45
Fuel $1.95 - $2.25

Subsequent years depend on our future commitment to new refining capacity.

$105.00 a barrel
$4.699 a gallon for the cheap stuff.
He's wrong.
Dick S.

$70 a barrel and over $3 at the pump. The demand from China and India is
growing at an increasing rate.