Car Forum / Antique and Collectibles / Studebaker / October 2006
Is our economy really going to hell?(OT)
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Robert Black - 28 Sep 2006 22:10 GMT I have a freind who follows Wall street carefully,hes an investment broker who looks after my meagre portfolio.(I should have enough to live well when I retire at 65,as long as I don't get older than 67) Hes been predicting a major meltdown, on Oct 26 as a matter of fact. I understand how bad things are for the big 3 auto companys, but as I work for a US company, recent events are making me quite nervous. The company I work for had 1200 employees up till one year ago. Last December 500 were laid off,it seems pemanently. Of the 700 left,a few have been axed (both staff and hourly) in dribs and drabs untill were down to about 500. The company announced the cancellation of the order of "center beam" cars weve been working on a few weeks ago,due to a downturn in the building market in the US (these rigs carry lumber) When the remains of this order is completed in two weeks,all but about 100 will be laid off. We have an order for 400 flat cars that is supposed to start up when they get the line set up in January, but only about 300 people will be reqired,and those 400 cars will be done by spring. No more orders on the books. Eveyday I read more company E-mails and there all bad, the high Canadian dollar,increased fuel costs,slowdown in markets etc. Now theres a rumour that even this flat car order is to be cancelled. I don't see anything new being set up in the assembly shop. As a power engineer,I think Ill be safe till spring,as surely they'll want to heat the place, we have 27 acres of buildings under roof thats heated by our steam plant. But Im starting to wonder,I sure don't want to go to Alberta,or anywhere. I know a lot of you guys know a lot about this stuff,and this post isn't meant to start any wars(I hope it dosen't) but Id just like to get a feel for what you guys think is going on. 1929 all over again?
Kevin Wolford - 29 Sep 2006 01:36 GMT No.
The closest thing to 1929 since 1929 was 1979-81. Double digit inflation, a Prime interest rate near 20%, and double digit unemployment. Many have forgotten 1979-81. I won't.
Interest rates and inflation are both tame. And, I'd have died to have the job opportunities that are available today, to me, when I graduated high school in 1981.
The current housing adjustment is just that, an adjustment. After many years of unbridled growth, the market is getting a reality check. Existing home sales began increasing once again last month. 6-7% Mortgages are still more reasonable than the first ones I signed up for. The market is not going to crash.
If you are locked into working for a certain company, unable or unwilling, whichever be the case, to change, the fortunes of that company control your destiny. Individual companies can fail during the best of overall economic times. Especially if they are in a maturing business that is oversupplied, or becoming obsolete.
Studebaker survived the technological obsolescence of the horse and buggy by becoming an auto maker. Then, Studebaker ceased making automobiles in one of the best years ever to that date for the auto industry. Think about that.
>I have a freind who follows Wall street carefully,hes an investment broker >who looks after my meagre portfolio.(I should have enough to live well when [quoted text clipped - 27 lines] > for what you guys think is going on. > 1929 all over again? Jeff Grohs - 29 Sep 2006 05:55 GMT Absolutely NOT!!!
for the last 4 years, since the dot-com bust, my commute down I-680 into Silicon Valley has been a breeze - it went from almost 2 hours in the morning ( 25 miles) to about 35 minutes. Instead of seeing traffic get lighter in the summer, and get heavy again when school started in september, it's been fairly steady... until this fall. Traffic has gotten worse. Not quite as bad as 2000 or 2001, but still worse.
The economy is booming - this is a prime indicator.
some pre-announcements ( of lower revenues) by my company's competitors in the semiconductor industry means that we're probably heading into a recession next year, but for today, things are still hopping.
just my 2 cents.
Jeff
> No. > [quoted text clipped - 54 lines] >>for what you guys think is going on. >>1929 all over again? Michael - Roseland FL - 29 Sep 2006 01:43 GMT Thank Clinton for NAFTA and selling us out to the Chinese.
> I have a freind who follows Wall street carefully,hes an investment broker > who looks after my meagre portfolio.(I should have enough to live well when [quoted text clipped - 27 lines] > for what you guys think is going on. > 1929 all over again? Lee Aanderud - 29 Sep 2006 01:51 GMT I hear the Chinese economy is doing well.
I predict that in 30 years we'll be peddling bikes to work for minimum wage for a subsidiary sweatshop of WalMart (which will buy out everyone by then) while the Chinese are driving gas guzzling SUV's into work from the suburbs.
Lee
> Thank Clinton for NAFTA and selling us out to the Chinese. Pat Drnec - 29 Sep 2006 02:14 GMT Thanks for the obligatory Clinton slam, now this topic can spin off into hate and discontent.
Jeff, you asleep?
> Thank Clinton for NAFTA and selling us out to the Chinese. > [quoted text clipped - 29 lines] >> for what you guys think is going on. >> 1929 all over again?
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The only label that fits: http://www.capitolhillblue.com/artman/publish/article_6966.shtml
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Jeff - 09 Oct 2006 12:53 GMT Nope. Wide awake and too smart to bite with crappy bait and lures like this. Jeff ( Fishing in stocked ponds is way too easy <lol>..) Rice
> Thanks for the obligatory Clinton slam, now this topic can spin off into > hate and discontent. > > Jeff, you asleep?
> > Thank Clinton for NAFTA and selling us out to the Chinese. John Poulos - 29 Sep 2006 02:24 GMT Wrong Presidents
NAFTA:
December 17, 1992 Salinas, Bush, and Mulroney sign the NAFTA agreement.
Most China favored Nation:
"MFN status was restored to China in 1980 conditionally under Title IV (including the Jackson-Vanik freedom-of-emigration amendment) of the Trade Act of 1974 and must be renewed annually." It has been renewed by every President since.
> Thank Clinton for NAFTA and selling us out to the Chinese.
 Signature JP/Maryland Studebaker On the Net http://stude.com My Ebay items:http://www.stude.com/EBAY/ 64 Daytona HT 63 R2 4 speed GT Hawk (Black) 63 R1 GT Hawk 63 Avanti R1 63 Avanti R2 63 Daytona convert 62 Lark 2 door 60 Hawk 60 Lark Convert 57 Silver Hawk 51 Commander 50 Champion
Grumpy AuContraire - 29 Sep 2006 02:43 GMT > Wrong Presidents > > NAFTA: > > December 17, 1992 > Salinas, Bush, and Mulroney sign the NAFTA agreement. Yeah, but it was not in effect until an intense campaign by Clinton, Gore in 1993 or 1994. Remember the famous Gore/Perot debate??? Perot was right!
Oh, and don't forget GATT, a 100% Clinton deed that followed..
> Most China favored Nation: > > "MFN status was restored to China in 1980 conditionally under Title IV > (including the Jackson-Vanik freedom-of-emigration amendment) of the > Trade Act of 1974 and must be renewed annually." It has been renewed by > every President since. Just goes to show that *all* politicians are bottom feeders...
JT
> > Thank Clinton for NAFTA and selling us out to the Chinese. Michael - Roseland FL - 29 Sep 2006 02:59 GMT Like I said, thank Clinton for NAFTA and sekking us out to the Chinese. Read this and get back to me:
Not even the boldest booster can deny the bare facts: U.S. exports did increase, by 36 percent to Mexico and 33 percent to Canada, between 1993 and 1996. But imports increased more--up 83 percent from Mexico, 41 percent from Canada--increasing the U.S. trade deficit by $39 billion.
Those import/export numbers presumably led the Clinton administration to backpedal from earlier claims: Issued quietly a week past the July 1 deadline, the official report claimed NAFTA had generated only a "modest positive effect" on the U.S. economy. The corporate-owned media followed that lead, producing a handful of stories that mirrored the administration's upbeat tone.
Most accounts noted perfunctorily that Clinton's evaluation was "likely to provide ammunition for both sides in the NAFTA debate" (L.A. Times, 7/12/97), but the anti-NAFTA ammunition went largely undescribed: Mainstream coverage overwhelmingly echoed Clinton's accent on the positive and, in particular, the emphasis on total exports as the measure of NAFTA's success, rather than balance of trade--even though balance is considered far more important than volume in determining the impact of trade on jobs.
Critics call the shift in emphasis an example of bait and switch. "During the debate, they said the overall trade balance would improve. Now that that hasn't happened, they've changed their tune," says Sarah Anderson of the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS). Along with the Economic Policy Institute, Global Trade Watch and other groups, IPS issued its own report card, "NAFTA at Three Years: The Failed Experiment."
Establishment media also left unchallenged the administration's attribution of the disappointing trade balance results to internal Mexican economic problems that had nothing to do with the pact. The New York Times (7/11/97), for example, referred matter-of-factly to "the deep financial crisis that engulfed Mexico in 1995 and turned a small American trade surplus with the country into a deficit." A Washington Post article (7/11/97) speculated on NAFTA's effect "if the impact of Mexico's financial crisis is factored out."
But to "factor out" Mexico's peso crisis in assessing NAFTA is disingenuous in the extreme, Anderson says, because the two are deeply entwined. "The Failed Experiment" argues that the peso's fall was a necessary part of Mexico's "aggressive export-led growth strategy"--a strategy that was premised on NAFTA. The artificially high peso had kept down inflation in Mexico, which was key to NAFTA's passage in the U.S. and to the 1994 election of pro-NAFTA Mexican president Ernesto Zedillo.
In fact, mainstream media largely acknowledged this at the time; much of their pro-NAFTA reporting depicted the pact as crucial for Mexico's economic future. The L.A. Times declared in 1993 (3/25/93) that NAFTA would "keep Mexico stable." And the Washington Post explained why: It reported (7/1/93) that the Mexican economy "is supported by a heavy flow of investment from abroad," and "a lot of that investment is based on the assumption that the United States will keep its word in putting the trade agreement into effect."
But that's all forgotten now: The Mexican crisis, which devastated that country's economy, doubling the number of unemployed, dropping real wages 27 percent in just two years and pushing millions of people into poverty, is today just a sad story whose only connection to NAFTA is that it "initially overshadowed any gains from" the pact (U.S. News & World Report, 7/7/97).
Some outlets are categorical: "Analysts say the notion that NAFTA caused the 1995 peso crisis is simply wrong-headed," asserted the L.A. Times (7/9/97). "The crisis--and the slump that followed--were spawned by mismanagement on the part of Mexican policymakers, who had kept the peso artificially high to distract from domestic political problems, analysts say."
Jobs! Jobs! Jobs?
In 1993 (5/11/93), the Washington Post declared without qualification that NAFTA would "create twice as many jobs in this country as it will threaten," while other outlets (e.g., L.A. Times, 5/29/93) limited themselves to the claim that it would generate "many more U.S. jobs than it will eliminate."
In 1997, however, the same outlets that were so confident in predicting the future threw up their hands at the idea of reporting the present. "For all the claims and counterclaims about NAFTA's impact on employment, analysts have no good way to measure it," says the L.A. Times (7/9/97). The New York Times is similarly stumped: "Officials said there were largely unsolvable problems in generating an accurate estimate of job losses," they declare (7/11/97).
NAFTA critics aren't buying that line. Economists routinely use trade balances to reckon job creation and loss; the "Failed Experiment" indicates that the quadrupling of the U.S. deficit with Mexico and Canada works out to some 420,000 jobs lost to increased imports and to companies shifting production to Mexico to take advantage of lower wages.
Some articles did cite Labor Depart-ment statistics that, by July of this year, more than 133,000 U.S. workers had applied for the "transitional adjustment assistance" program set up to address job loss connected to NAFTA. But most accounts left out facts that suggest why that number isn't a very good indicator: It excludes all those who seek help through other, more accessible programs, and it only includes people employed directly in manufacturing--if a factory shuts down, the secretaries and administrators who lose their jobs don't qualify (much less other affected workers in the surrounding community).
NAFTA proponents often play down the numbers of people thrown out of work by "free trade" policies, arguing that it's more important that the jobs created are in export sectors that pay higher-than-average wages. That analysis, supported by the White House, repeatedly found its way into news reports; but readers had to find the occasional "opinion" column to get any countervailing information, however basic--like the fact that the jobs being lost to import competition also pay higher-than-average wages (Jeff Faux, Washington Post op-ed, 5/20/97), or that even the much-ballyhooed NAFTA-generated exports can wind up costing U.S. jobs, since "more and more, multinationals are shipping components to Mexico, so they can be assembled by low-wage workers, then sent right back as finished products to the United States." (David Bonier, New York Times op-ed, 7/13/97) This kind of "revolving door" export has more than doubled under NAFTA.
Unsubtle Threats
If disputes about the number of lost jobs were pushed to mainstream media margins, discussion of NAFTA's impact on wages and workers' rights was forced off the page entirely. Media overwhelmingly ignored, for example, the compelling report commissioned by the U.S. Labor Department on U.S. employers' use of the threat of "moving to Mexico" to hold down wages and benefits. (According to Cornell University researcher Kate Bronfen-brenner, who conducted the study, the Clinton administration sat on the results for several months before they were finally released--National News Reporter, 5/97.)
Employers have long used plant-closing threats to keep workers from forming unions and to force concessions, but Bronfenbrenner found (Multinational Monitor, 3/97) that between 1993 and 1995, employers used this illegal maneuver in a whopping 50 percent of all union certification elections; 15 percent actually did shut down within two years of a union victory--triple the rate found in the late 1980s, before NAFTA went into effect. "In fact, in several campaigns, the employer used media coverage of the NAFTA debate to threaten the workers that it was fully within the company's power to move the plant to Mexico if workers were to organize," Bronfen-brenner wrote.
The threats aren't subtle: During a United Auto Workers 1995 organizing campaign, Michigan's ITT Automotive parked tractor-trailers full of equipment in front of the plant, bearing hot-pink signs reading "Mexico Transfer Job." Another company posted maps of North America throughout the factory, with an arrow pointing from the current plant site to Mexico. Workers get the message; where employers used such threats, unions' success rate dropped significantly.
Of course, whether something is a problem or a boon depends on where you stand. U.S. News & World Report (7/7/97), for one, did acknowledge that "a growing number of U.S. companies [have turned] to Mexico for manpower and manufacturing capacity" as a direct result of NAFTA. But they see that as a good thing, since it "may have helped ease the bottlenecks that cause inflation during an economic expansion," providing what one source describes as a "relief valve" from inflationary pressure. Readers familiar with media corporate-speak know that "inflation" means higher wages; so U.S. News is telling us that NAFTA gives employers "relief" from having to pay workers more. Cham-pagne, anyone?
Losers Weepers
In place of thoughtful analysis of the kind and quality of jobs destroyed and created by NAFTA, the corporate-owned media offered a gloss: Trade pacts, in the ubiquitous simpleminded phrase, produce "losers" as well as "winners." While implicitly or explicitly arguing that winners matter more, media have made occasional passing mention of what might be done about those annoying losers.
"Congress should provide generous retraining and relocation assistance to those who will suffer" under NAFTA, the New York Times (8/17/93) suggested vaguely back in 1993. The Washington Post (3/15/93) agreed: Govern-ment must "acknowledge an obligation to the people who get hurt in the process," and that means "job training and adjustment legislation."
Critics like the Economic Policy Institute's Jeff Faux (Washington Post op-ed, 5/20/97) point to obvious fallacies in the retraining "solution." The ratio of U.S. to Mexican wages, Faux notes, is roughly 9 to 1. "Even if this administration and Congress were willing to finance first-class retraining for American workers, which they are not, it is impossible to make U.S. workers anywhere near nine times as productive as Mexican workers in competing industries."
But you won't find such criticism taken up in mainstream news accounts. Once they'd declared "retraining and education" the linchpin in ameliorating any harmful "free trade" fallout, the establishment press corps promptly lost interest in it. Recent NAFTA assessments offered no information on the scope, success or even the existence of any such effort.
In fact, establishment media won't even take up the issue of trade pacts' disparate impact on different groups of people when they're handed the opportunity. When more than 150 labor, environmental and human rights activists protesting the proposed expansion of NAFTA to Chile rallied in San Francisco on June 26, they were simply ignored by the city's major dailies, the Chronicle and the Examiner (San Francisco Bay Guardian, 7/2/97).
A group of mostly Latino members of Congress met similar media indifference when they publicly protested the disproportionate burden NAFTA puts on Latino, African-American and female workers, who often work in especially vulnerable regions and industries. The Washington Post (7/16/97), which ran a brief item on page C13, sidestepped the protest's substance to frame it as most importantly a "blow to President Clinton's trade agenda."
Another topic that somehow dropped off the media's radar between 1994 and 1997 was NAFTA's impact on the environment. It's a glaring absence in the current discussion, says IPS's Anderson, "because that's been perhaps NAFTA's most outrageous failure."
The disturbing information cited by Anderson and others would make for gripping reporting: In NAFTA's wake, fewer than 1 percent of trucks entering the U.S. each year are inspected--even though 50 percent of those inspected are rejected for major safety violations. Or that much Mexican produce is entering the U.S. with illegal pesticide residue due to weakened food safety inspections.
Such complaints got a mention in some of the mainstream accounts of the White House NAFTA report, but few outlets considered them worthy of any actual investigation. One exception, a June 30, 1997 L.A. Times story on pollution control efforts on the U.S.-Mexican border, provided a pretty bleak picture of NAFTA's public health repercussions.
While including information on some NAFTA-produced improvements, like a new water treatment plant in the Tijuana River Valley, the story found much more evidence of broken promises and official indifference. For example, "only 16 of 98 promised public utility projects have been approved for financing through NAFTA; just one has been completed." Forty percent of the Mexican population in the border area have no sewers or drinkable water, likewise some 400,000 people on the U.S. side. The notoriously toxic New River "still runs black on days when Mexicali's inadequate sewer system is overwhelmed," and ground water in expanding border cities is being depleted at alarming rates.
"As the trucks roll north carrying Zenith TVs, General Motors auto parts, Sony computer monitors . . . and a host of other name-brand products," wrote reporters Frank Clifford and Mary Beth Sheridan, "they pass through communities with elevated rates of tuberculosis, typhoid, hepatitis, salmonellosis and other diseases associated with bad water and bad air."
NAFTA encouraged an explosion in industry in the already polluted maquiladora zone, but "did not mandate a crackdown on polluters or a cleanup of existing pollution." And while the pact outlined some programs for infrastructure improvements, "lending policies and high interest rates by NAFTA's financial arm, the North American Development Bank, have made it difficult for many small border towns, especially in Mexico, to qualify for assistance."
This kind of in-depth exploration of NAFTA's actual impact on real communities is just what was missing from most of mainstream coverage, which generally presents the issue as claims and counterclaims, facts be damned. That it appeared in the L.A. Times is noteworthy; in 1993, the paper argued in an outraged editorial (7/1/93) that calls for the trade pact to include an environmental impact statement were "based on dubious assumptions about NAFTA's negative effects on the environment, especially along the U.S.-Mexico border," and gave "too much credence to scare scenarios of extreme environmentalists."
>From the Same Primer If news reports ignored NAFTA's failures, or blurred them with ostensibly neutral language, editorials made it clear that the corporate-owned media are emphatically allied with "free trade" boosters. Indeed, mainstream editorialists all appear to be reading from the same primer.
NAFTA has been "a sweet deal economically" that President Clinton "should have no hesitation in declaring . . . a success," said the L.A. Times (6/30/97). The pact has been "good for Mexico," creating a "bountiful trade family." There is no mention whatsoever of the trade deficit, and the paper gives only a throwaway sentence to "legitimate concerns" like "the jobs picture, environmental aspects, political effects"; such questions, they allow, should be "heard out and investigated where necessary."
The Washington Post was equally upbeat: "Free trade is good for the U.S. economy," it declared (4/27/97); it "helps create jobs that tend to be higher-paying than average," and promotes the exports that have "helped revive the U.S. manufacturing sector." For workers who "lose out" under the new policy, the Post's remedy is the same glib panacea from 1993: "retraining" and "improved education to create the kind of labor force that will attract long-term investment."
In a New York Times op-ed (7/13/97) that questioned the conventional wisdom, a former member of a presidential commission on U.S./ Asian-Pacific trade, Kenneth Lewis, called for a "national dialogue" on trade. We need to ask fundamental questions, like: "What is the purpose of our trade policy and what do we want our domestic economy to look like?" and: "What conditions must exist--concerning human rights, workers' rights or environmental protections--for us to allow other nations' goods to enter our country?"
Far from providing the space for such a dialogue, when it comes to trade, mainstream media don't even pretend to present two sides: The "debate" they offer is between a presumed consensus of economists who "understand" the issue and a few stray "political Luddites" (L. A. Times, 7/1/93) who don't. Even as their concerns are borne out, organizations critical of NAFTA are portrayed as partisan--as in the New York Times (7/11/97) formulation, "labor unions, environmentalists and other Democratic constituencies"--or "protectionist." Trade policy dissenters are presented as merely wanting to "kill" trade pacts, instead of calling for open discussion of their implications and offering alternative economic visions.
Most disturbing is that while establishment media's coverage of NAFTA's effects sidestepped critics' substantive concerns and ignored myriad issues that cry out for investigation, these outlets were also clamoring for President Clinton to be given "fast track" authority to negotiate even further-reaching trade pacts (involving Chile and other countries) with limited discussion. But it's not surprising that national media who are so unwilling to honestly examine the effects of past trade pacts would be interested in squelching debate on future ones.
> > Wrong Presidents > > [quoted text clipped - 21 lines] > > > > Thank Clinton for NAFTA and selling us out to the Chinese. John Poulos - 29 Sep 2006 03:15 GMT Holy crap a politician misled us, you got me, Clinton is responsible for everything bad that happened since. After all he piled up the pesky budget surplus so GW could piss it away on a bigger government and a war without end. Let's bash Nixon or Carter for a while, that we can agree on.
> Like I said, thank Clinton for NAFTA and sekking us out to the Chinese. > Read this and get back to me: >  Signature JP/Maryland Studebaker On the Net http://stude.com My Ebay items:http://www.stude.com/EBAY/ 64 Daytona HT 63 R2 4 speed GT Hawk (Black) 63 R1 GT Hawk 63 Avanti R1 63 Avanti R2 63 Daytona convert 62 Lark 2 door 60 Hawk 60 Lark Convert 57 Silver Hawk 51 Commander 50 Champion
Lee Aanderud - 29 Sep 2006 03:27 GMT The majority of that surplus can be thanked to his vice-president inventing the internet which created the .com boom. <G>
Lee
> Holy crap a politician misled us, you got me, Clinton is responsible for > everything bad that happened since. After all he piled up the pesky budget [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] >> Like I said, thank Clinton for NAFTA and sekking us out to the Chinese. >> Read this and get back to me: John Poulos - 29 Sep 2006 03:51 GMT Now that I agree with.
"The inventor of the Mosaic Browser, Marc Andreesen, credits Gore with making his work possible. He received a federal grant through Gore's High Performance Computing Act. The University of Pennsylvania's Dave Ferber says that without Gore the Internet "would not be where it is today."
Joseph E. Traub, a computer science professor at Columbia University, claims that Gore "was perhaps the first political leader to grasp the importance of networking the country. Gore never claimed that he "invented" the Internet, which implies that he engineered the technology. The invention occurred in the seventies and allowed scientists in the Defense Department to communicate with each other. In a March 1999 interview with Wolf Blitzer, Gore said, "During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet. Could we perhaps see an end to cheap shots from politicians and pundits about inventing the Internet?"
> The majority of that surplus can be thanked to his vice-president inventing > the internet which created the .com boom. <G> > > Lee
 Signature JP/Maryland Studebaker On the Net http://stude.com My Ebay items:http://www.stude.com/EBAY/ 64 Daytona HT 63 R2 4 speed GT Hawk (Black) 63 R1 GT Hawk 63 Avanti R1 63 Avanti R2 63 Daytona convert 62 Lark 2 door 60 Hawk 60 Lark Convert 57 Silver Hawk 51 Commander 50 Champion
Lee Aanderud - 29 Sep 2006 04:15 GMT I predict Al Gore will be the next face carved into Mount Rushmore... or maybe they'll scrub the current faces and use the blank slate for Al. He's already the father of the internet which produced the latest economic revolution in this country. Next he'll be responsible for single-handedly reversing global warming and saving the planet... that is after he parachutes into Pakistan and retrieves the body (dead or alive) of Bin Laden and bringing the fighting in Iraq and the rest the Middle East to an end. Rambo is looking more and more like a Girl Scout compared to this guy. Or maybe I'm just revealing the script from the next Michael Moore movie.
Lee
> Now that I agree with. > [quoted text clipped - 18 lines] >> >> Lee John Poulos - 29 Sep 2006 04:25 GMT History will judge all the politicians, not us. We could keep a pissing contest going over events happening 20 years or more ago. If GW turns Iraq into the land of milk and honey, it'll come out one way, if the coast is under water in 100 years, it'll come out another. Hell, I now look back on Reagan as a conservative I could live with after seeing GW's version of a small government and less foreign involvement.
> I predict Al Gore will be the next face carved into Mount Rushmore... or > maybe they'll scrub the current faces and use the blank slate for Al. He's [quoted text clipped - 30 lines] >>> >>> Lee
 Signature JP/Maryland Studebaker On the Net http://stude.com My Ebay items:http://www.stude.com/EBAY/ 64 Daytona HT 63 R2 4 speed GT Hawk (Black) 63 R1 GT Hawk 63 Avanti R1 63 Avanti R2 63 Daytona convert 62 Lark 2 door 60 Hawk 60 Lark Convert 57 Silver Hawk 51 Commander 50 Champion
Lee Aanderud - 29 Sep 2006 13:42 GMT History written by whom? Here's a joke that's relevant.
George W. Bush is seen crossing the Potomac river on foot. The Washington Post : "President Bush crosses the Potomac River". The Washington Time : "Bush's conservative approach saves taxpayers a boat". Mother Jones : "Bush can't swim".
Lee
> History will judge all the politicians, not us. We could keep a pissing > contest going over events happening 20 years or more ago. If GW turns Iraq > into the land of milk and honey, it'll come out one way, if the coast is > under water in 100 years, it'll come out another. Hell, I now look back on > Reagan as a conservative I could live with after seeing GW's version of a > small government and less foreign involvement.
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Mike Hunter - 29 Sep 2006 15:47 GMT Not to change the subject but the OT topic was, is our economy really going to hell? The answers to THAT question is obviously NO, for anyone willing to do a search on the subject. If you do you will find the facts are that the current state of the economy is the highest it has ever been in our history, based on GNP. The income to the treasury is the highest in our history, even though everybody we given a tax rate cut to spur the economy after 9/11. Unemployment is at the lowest in history. The number of successful small business continues to grow. More people own their home than at any time in history, and the US is still by far the largest manufacturing.county in the world.
The biggest problem facing our economy is there is an ever growing shortage of qualified people to do the work that currently is available in the US, and it is aggravated by the growing number of boomers that are retiring. Labor Department figures show there are only three qualified people available to for every five job openings in the US! Employers are happy it they can just find somebody who will come to work on time, stay the shift and in trainable.
Although we currently are operating with a budget defect the county has historically operated with a deficit during wartime. When FDR was asked about the horrendous deficits during WWII his reply was; 'One does not worry about the water bill when the house in on fire.' We have plenty of time after our county is safe again to make up any deficit.
mike hunt
> The majority of that surplus can be thanked to his vice-president > inventing the internet which created the .com boom. <G> > > Lee midlant@earthlink.net - 29 Sep 2006 17:41 GMT If this is a war, why don't we have a draft. We've lowered the published standards to the level of people you wouldn't let into your house, and the unofficial (end of month) standards (which have existed since the end of the depression) even lower. I'm 67 years old, blind in one eye with glaucoma in both and a trouble-maker to boot! If I were ex-army instead of navy, I bet they could find a spot for me if I offered my sevices.
Karl
> Not to change the subject but the OT topic was, is our economy really going > to hell? The answers to THAT question is obviously NO, for anyone willing [quoted text clipped - 27 lines] > > > > Lee John Poulos - 29 Sep 2006 17:47 GMT Give the war a few more years and they'll take you. The Army Reserve age limit was raised from 35 to 40 in March 2005, then to 42 in Jan 2006.
> If this is a war, why don't we have a draft. > We've lowered the published standards to the level of people you [quoted text clipped - 7 lines] > > Karl
 Signature JP/Maryland Studebaker On the Net http://stude.com My Ebay items:http://www.stude.com/EBAY/ 64 Daytona HT 63 R2 4 speed GT Hawk (Black) 63 R1 GT Hawk 63 Avanti R1 63 Avanti R2 63 Daytona convert 62 Lark 2 door 60 Hawk 60 Lark Convert 57 Silver Hawk 51 Commander 50 Champion
Mike Hunter - 29 Sep 2006 19:59 GMT The draft was ended a long time ago. Today military is all volunteer.
mike hunt
> If this is a war, why don't we have a draft. > We've lowered the published standards to the level of people you [quoted text clipped - 46 lines] >> > >> > Lee midlant@earthlink.net - 30 Sep 2006 03:12 GMT > The draft was ended a long time ago. Today military is all volunteer. > > mike hunt "Volunteer" for military nowadays can mean, "I can be bribed." ( Hmmm. Likely candidates for Congress when they get out? )
Karl
me@notanywhere.net - 30 Sep 2006 04:04 GMT On 29 Sep 2006 19:12:30 -0700, you wrote:
>"Volunteer" for military nowadays can mean, "I can be bribed." >( Hmmm. Likely candidates for Congress when they get out? ) > >Karl also currently means you CANNOT get out when your term is up..LOL
--Shiva--
Grumpy AuContraire - 29 Sep 2006 05:27 GMT Inversly, you can thank the GOP's "Contract With America" for the budget surplus of the 1990's...
JT
> Holy crap a politician misled us, you got me, Clinton is responsible for > everything bad that happened since. After all he piled up the pesky [quoted text clipped - 20 lines] > 51 Commander > 50 Champion John Poulos - 29 Sep 2006 05:40 GMT I'll give you that, but don't care who or what had a good result, just give me good news. I'm a independent, I don't care about the brand of the car, just give me a smooth ride. <g>
> Inversly, you can thank the GOP's "Contract With America" for the budget > surplus of the 1990's... [quoted text clipped - 25 lines] >> 51 Commander >> 50 Champion
 Signature JP/Maryland Studebaker On the Net http://stude.com My Ebay items:http://www.stude.com/EBAY/ 64 Daytona HT 63 R2 4 speed GT Hawk (Black) 63 R1 GT Hawk 63 Avanti R1 63 Avanti R2 63 Daytona convert 62 Lark 2 door 60 Hawk 60 Lark Convert 57 Silver Hawk 51 Commander 50 Champion
Grumpy AuContraire - 29 Sep 2006 12:34 GMT Speaking of "smooth" rides, what ever happened to the HD mid fifties rear springs that SASCO is supposedly reproducing?
I just filed a belated 2005 FIT and am getting an unexpected $2K refund!
JT
> I'll give you that, but don't care who or what had a good result, > just give me good news. I'm a independent, I don't care about the brand [quoted text clipped - 45 lines] > 51 Commander > 50 Champion John Poulos - 29 Sep 2006 13:14 GMT I'm still waiting to. The previous supplier won't do them in that small a volume, and the others want crazy money. Maybe SI will source them from China at some point.
> Speaking of "smooth" rides, what ever happened to the HD mid fifties > rear springs that SASCO is supposedly reproducing? [quoted text clipped - 51 lines] >> 51 Commander >> 50 Champion
 Signature JP/Maryland Studebaker On the Net http://stude.com My Ebay items:http://www.stude.com/EBAY/ 64 Daytona HT 63 R2 4 speed GT Hawk (Black) 63 R1 GT Hawk 63 Avanti R1 63 Avanti R2 63 Daytona convert 62 Lark 2 door 60 Hawk 60 Lark Convert 57 Silver Hawk 51 Commander 50 Champion
Alex Magdaleno - 29 Sep 2006 05:56 GMT > Inversly, you can thank the GOP's "Contract With America" for the budget > surplus of the 1990's..." No You can thank Bush I and Clinton for the two biggest tax raises in history for balancing the budget. You can also thank the 4 tax raises Reagan passed after he saw what a disaster his Tax cut was for the deficit.
> JT > [quoted text clipped - 23 lines] >> 51 Commander >> 50 Champion markshere2 - 29 Sep 2006 11:26 GMT One missing factor here: a little event called the collapse of Soviet Untion was brought about by The Teflon Don (Ron Reagan). The resultant "Peace Dividend" slashed military spending under the Klinton regime.....
Go ahead and ask me why I coudn't get a commission in the USAF.
There are no "easy answers" to complicated situations. I didn't drive my Studebaker yesterday, but I did on Wednesday.
by "Alex Magdaleno" <plymouth47075@yahoo.com> Sep 28, 2006 at 09:56 PM
in message news:451CA164.7BCE2BC6@GrumpyvilleNOT.com...
> Inversly, you can thank the GOP's "Contract With America" for the budget > surplus of the 1990's..." No You can thank Bush I and Clinton for the two biggest tax raises in history
for balancing the budget. You can also thank the 4 tax raises Reagan passed after he saw what a disaster his Tax cut was for the deficit.
Nate Nagel - 29 Sep 2006 12:09 GMT You're right, of course, there are no easy answers. whether or not you liked either Reagan or Clinton I think you have to agree that the collapse of the Soviet Union and subsequent de-escalation of the Cold War was a good thing for the US. Likewise, even though it affected you personally, the reduced military spending and balanced budget also gave benefit to the US. I don't forsee any benefits that I'm going to see within the next 20 years (or even longer term for that matter) as a result of W's policies... all I see is debt.
I think Clinton and Reagan were both men who, whether you agreed with them or not, had the best interests of the US at heart, they just had very different philosophies. Thus it was possible to disagree with them without necessarily disapproving. I don't know what the hell W is thinking.
nate
> One missing factor here: a little event called the collapse of Soviet > Untion was brought about by The Teflon Don (Ron Reagan). The resultant [quoted text clipped - 22 lines] > passed > after he saw what a disaster his Tax cut was for the deficit.
 Signature replace "fly" with "com" to reply. http://home.comcast.net/~njnagel
Robert Black - 29 Sep 2006 17:03 GMT Sorry this turned into a bit of a mud sling,I shouldn't have started it. Here in Canada,our only female with any real chance of ever becoming prime minister just blew her credibility to hell by having a well publiciesd affair with a hockrey player (to Canadaian eh?) ,former(retired) tough guy from the Toronto Maple Leafs,Tie Domni. Seems old Tie forgot that hes already married and the press is having a field day with it,lots of pictures of the "happy" couple. He tried to buy his wife off with their house and a few million,but as might be expected,shes out for blood. The MP,Belinda Stronhac, is a poor little rich girl whos daddy Frank Stronhac owns Magna auto parts,which Belinda used to run,before she got into politics. Some people pay a high price for a little strange . http://www.canada.com/topics/sports/story.html?id=015af4a0-426d-4865-871e-41350e 740622&k=37636
> Holy crap a politician misled us, you got me, Clinton is responsible for > everything bad that happened since. After all he piled up the pesky budget [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] >> Like I said, thank Clinton for NAFTA and sekking us out to the Chinese. >> Read this and get back to me: John Poulos - 29 Sep 2006 03:04 GMT Again, wrong guy, Truman in this case:
1947 Having already established the International Monetary Fund and the precursor to the World Bank, the United States and its allies create the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) to bolster free trade. GATT is intended to be a stopgap measure on the way to forming the International Trade Organization.
Clinton is responsible for the stain on Monica's dress though.
> Oh, and don't forget GATT, a 100% Clinton deed that followed.. > [quoted text clipped - 10 lines] > >>> Thank Clinton for NAFTA and selling us out to the Chinese.
 Signature JP/Maryland Studebaker On the Net http://stude.com My Ebay items:http://www.stude.com/EBAY/ 64 Daytona HT 63 R2 4 speed GT Hawk (Black) 63 R1 GT Hawk 63 Avanti R1 63 Avanti R2 63 Daytona convert 62 Lark 2 door 60 Hawk 60 Lark Convert 57 Silver Hawk 51 Commander 50 Champion
Grumpy AuContraire - 29 Sep 2006 05:39 GMT I should have been more clear.
"1994 - Trade ministers meet for the final time under GATT auspices at Marrakesh, Morocco to establish the World Trade Organization (WTO)."
This was the action that sealed the current deal on international trade agreements.
JT
> Again, wrong guy, Truman in this case: > [quoted text clipped - 38 lines] > 51 Commander > 50 Champion Alex Magdaleno - 29 Sep 2006 05:51 GMT With majority Republican support http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?con gress=103&session=1&vote=00395
34 Republican Yea 10 Republican Ney 27 Democrat Yea 28 Democrat Ney
> Thank Clinton for NAFTA and selling us out to the Chinese. > [quoted text clipped - 35 lines] >> for what you guys think is going on. >> 1929 all over again? John Poulos - 29 Sep 2006 06:16 GMT He shoots, he scores. <g> Great fact I was unaware of.
> With majority Republican support > http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?con gress=103&session=1&vote=00395 [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > 27 Democrat Yea > 28 Democrat Ney
>> Thank Clinton for NAFTA and selling us out to the Chinese. JP/Maryland Studebaker On the Net http://stude.com My Ebay items:http://www.stude.com/EBAY/ 64 Daytona HT 63 R2 4 speed GT Hawk (Black) 63 R1 GT Hawk 63 Avanti R1 63 Avanti R2 63 Daytona convert 62 Lark 2 door 60 Hawk 60 Lark Convert 57 Silver Hawk 51 Commander 50 Champion
Robert Black - 29 Sep 2006 10:51 GMT I should have known better,sorry.
> He shoots, he scores. <g> Great fact I was unaware of. > [quoted text clipped - 23 lines] > 51 Commander > 50 Champion Lee Aanderud - 29 Sep 2006 13:48 GMT What fact? One swing vote on the Democrat side and Alex wouldn't have posted this?
49% of the Democrat vote was for it, 51% was against it... even back then they waffled on the subject.
Lee
> He shoots, he scores. <g> Great fact I was unaware of. > [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] >> 27 Democrat Yea >> 28 Democrat Ney
 Signature Posted via a free Usenet account from http://www.teranews.com
John Poulos - 29 Sep 2006 14:37 GMT Actually, I saw the vote as the good old days when both sides voted their conscience, yea's, and ney's from both sides. Now, they vote as a block or they "waffled."
> What fact? One swing vote on the Democrat side and Alex wouldn't have > posted this? [quoted text clipped - 13 lines] >>> 27 Democrat Yea >>> 28 Democrat Ney
 Signature JP/Maryland Studebaker On the Net http://stude.com My Ebay items:http://www.stude.com/EBAY/ 64 Daytona HT 63 R2 4 speed GT Hawk (Black) 63 R1 GT Hawk 63 Avanti R1 63 Avanti R2 63 Daytona convert 62 Lark 2 door 60 Hawk 60 Lark Convert 57 Silver Hawk 51 Commander 50 Champion
midlant@earthlink.net - 29 Sep 2006 17:52 GMT > Actually, I saw the vote as the good old days when both sides voted > their conscience, yea's, and ney's from both sides. Now, they vote as a > block or they "waffled." John, you hit the problem right there. I have always voted for centerists as they are the ones who keep some sanity in DC.
Be it Rush or Pacifica, it's the radicals who have screwed up this nation, but even then it was for the good-old American profit ideal, not the good of the nation, that they spewed their illocical faux hatred.
Karl
John Poulos - 29 Sep 2006 21:01 GMT Yep, I notice now when when one guy does not toe the party line on every vote, he's threatened by his party. Any idea, even a good one, is "bad" if the other side suggested it. Congress has turned into a 2 vote system, them and us and it sucks.
>> Actually, I saw the vote as the good old days when both sides voted >> their conscience, yea's, and ney's from both sides. Now, they vote as a [quoted text clipped - 11 lines] > > Karl
 Signature JP/Maryland Studebaker On the Net http://stude.com My Ebay items:http://www.stude.com/EBAY/ 64 Daytona HT 63 R2 4 speed GT Hawk (Black) 63 R1 GT Hawk 63 Avanti R1 63 Avanti R2 63 Daytona convert 62 Lark 2 door 60 Hawk 60 Lark Convert 57 Silver Hawk 51 Commander 50 Champion
Grumpy AuContraire - 29 Sep 2006 01:58 GMT > I have a freind who follows Wall street carefully,hes an investment broker > who looks after my meagre portfolio.(I should have enough to live well when [quoted text clipped - 27 lines] > for what you guys think is going on. > 1929 all over again? I don't think anything that you have mentioned is tied into a specific "meltdown" but I think that eventually there will be a substantial crash due to credit collapse. Outsourcing and bottom line issues are the driving force behind your employer's "slowdown."
JT
Comatus@bex.net - 29 Sep 2006 19:01 GMT Kevin may have come off a little fierce about being tied to the fortunes of one company, but it's true. Union factory hands may have been history's best-kept peasantry, but today's techies are the world's highest-paid migrant workers. If you want to survive in business, don't get too attached to your house or land.
I can't believe a rail-car builder could be short of work with a continent-wide shortage of coal and grain carriers. Bombardier is a separate issue, with their long bet on passenger service (anyone notice they've changed the name of their snowmobiles, to prepare that division for sale?). But anyone who can build freight cars should be working overtime. This sounds like a management issue: how much do they lose on each unit they sell? It's pretty cheap to heat 27 acres in Tennessee, and in China it's not even an issue. Plus, you get a thousand year tax write-off for building, and lose the union and the benefits package.
I had a couple drinks with a Nebraska rancher in August who said Wyoming ought to be a mile-deep hole in the ground by now, based on the number of coal trains passing his pasturage. Along Lincoln Highway, it's 5 minutes between trains--in the 70's I used to see high-speed container freights from the coast; now it's nothing but Wyoming coal (or, as Ohio power-plant engineers call it, "dirt.")
It is not any president's job to regulate the economy. A vibrant trade will transcend the worst meddling; a sick market cannot be propped up by any intervention. Other than our thorough-going, Left and Right addiction to praying to Government to cure all ills and cushion all shocks, the biggest obstacle to even-handed policy is not so much the 4-year presidential term, but the constant two-year battle for Congress. And I don't see where popular election of Senators has benefited the republic.
me@notanywhere.net - 29 Sep 2006 23:57 GMT a little digging finds the FOLLOWING.. I am NOT the author, but I DO KNOW in MY particular area, WATER is getting dammed hard to find thats drinkable, and HOUSES are NOT selling AT ALL..
jobs? all you want, at $8 an hour, part time.. OR LESS..
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_39/b4002001.htm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,,1836589,00.html
http://www.fourwinds10.com/NewsServer/ArticleFunctions/ArticleDetails.php?Articl eID=9624
Read also: Huge Gold Action and Earth Shaking Change Imminent http://www.kitco.com/ind/laird/may162006.html ************** http://www.kitco.com/ind/Laird/may312006.html World Markets about to Crash Together? By Chris Laird
May 31, 2006 www.prudentsquirrel.com
Recent stock headlines include a collapsed India stock market, collapsed not just dropping. Collapsed Middle East stock markets on the order of 50%. Dropping European markets, and US markets. Very weak Japanese stocks, probably looking to crash like the Middle East and India markets because the Nikkei is/was up 50% in a year. Very weak Chinese stocks, rapidly weakening emerging markets because of a slowing commodities bull. Weak Russian markets.
In short, the whole world is just about to fall into a synchronized stock cascade. Here is a typical headline, one of many these last weeks: European sell-off continues after U.S., Asia falls Autos, miners among decliners following steep Wall Street fall LONDON (MarketWatch) -- European markets dropped sharply Wednesday morning, extending the week's losses and taking their cue from a steep fall in the U.S. on the back of rising oil prices and falling consumer confidence. I offered a theory in World Speculation Dominoes that the world financial markets are all synchronized and will crash together. It appears that we are very near such an event right now. The causes I have written several articles with stock crash alert in the title this year. One of the major impetuses was the imminent unwinding of the Japanese Yen carry trade. In that ten year old free money spree, Japan allowed financiers world wide to borrow Yen for a literally zero interest rate and then invest that money in world stock markets and to buy other nations bonds for about a 3% interest rate premium. The amount of borrowed Yen invested in the worlds financial markets is astounding. We are talking trillions of dollars value in Yen that has found its way into every major financial market in the world. The US is considering a pause in its interest rate hikes of late. The interest rate differential the US holds over Japan and Europe is as much as 3%. If that differential is not maintained, trillions of dollars of US denominated financial investments are going to be unloaded on the world markets. A combination of unwinding the Yen carry trade and a serious drop in the value of the USD will just simply pull the rug out from under every major financial market that has benefited from the cheap USD and Yen. Liquidity is being pulled from world markets as we speak. It could get really ugly in a very short time friends. There are substantial reasons for major stock collapses due to very large macro economic trends affecting both the Yen and the USD. This is made worse by the bubble nature of world stock markets as of the last year, where many Asian markets saw gains over 50%, such as the Nikkei and Korean markets. They are/ were in stock manias. And then add the literal collapse of the Middle Eastern markets in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait
.and India. Then add emerging market weakness, and the fact that the Nikkei and the US stock markets are also definitely tipping down as we speak, and there is definitely a little panic in the winds. To say the least. Im going to go out on a small limb and say we are looking right now at a gigantic world stock collapse. I dont like writing this, I get no fun out of writing gloomy financial analyses. It is still possible that these world market drops will be forestalled, but the end is nearing now for a world financial mania that started in Japan in the early 1990s with their ridiculous zero interest rates. As a matter of fact, the whole financial mania we are about to see collapse began in Japan in the 1980s when they created their own stock and real estate bubbles that collapsed in the early 1990s. Then the US had its financial and real estate bubbles in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Just as late as last year, the financial manias took hold in India, the Middle East and Korean and even emerging markets
.and are now crashing as we speak. Now the flagship markets of the US and Japan are shuddering. The final gasp of a world financial mania is appearing before our eyes right now. The big story out now is the appearance of world stock collapses that may get out of control. I have been writing about this for months already for my readers. The other big story is an impending energy war in the Middle East. Look at your stock portfolio right now. Imagine how you would feel if it dropped 50%. That has happened this year in the Middle Eastern markets. Something like this has happened in India as well just recently. Its so bad in the Middle East that the Saudi Royal Family has offered to guarantee middle income people ($144k a year there) with guaranteed stock purchases for several years if they will go back into their stock markets. How about that one? As a matter of fact, I am only giving a brief rehash of the quite recent stock collapses. The number of nations involved is many. Trust me, go look for that kind of news, you will find a lot of it recently. There are two major forces that are propelling gold upward. One is fear of financial market collapses that are appearing like burned popcorn everywhere. The other is an imminent energy war in the Middle East. Iran is the pretext. It does not help that their leader is a maniacal Iranian mystic/politician that believes he is ushering in the end of history his own words. So, we have a huge overhang over the world financial markets with the unwinding of the Yen carry trade. The over blown real estate markets that are now collapsing just like everyone feared world wide. The imminent dropping of the USD that is making world central banks very afraid that a lower USD will pull more liquidity out of the speculative bubble world stock markets. And fear of an energy war in the Middle East with Russia and China and Iran on one side, Israel right in the middle, and the US and its few allies on the other side. No wonder gold is up about 200 bucks this year, and is having no problem holding onto its 650$ range. Im sure gold is going to go well over 700 quite soon now. Read my article about Huge Action and Earth Shaking Change Imminent. Now there is talk among central bankers that they are in crisis mode. The ECB and BOJ have both made comments like that, the BOJ much more gentle, but just as concerned. The ECB and friends are talking of crisis mode operations and financial crisis war games as we speak. They are concerned about the implications of a dropping USD and the liquidity that will pull out of world financial markets. The list goes on. Russia, emerging now from its decade old financial collapse following perestroika is now joining a growing list of energy producers who are creating oil bourses denominated in anything but USD. The Proposed Ruble bourse is the latest. This is just one snippet, to be added to Irans Euro Oil bourse, and all the coordinated oil / resource nations now collaborating with hostility to the Western Economies. A new world financial order is just now emerging and it looks very much, very much like the pre 1930s. Oh, did I mention that we are seeing the highest insider selling of stocks since about 2000?? I think this delineation of financial market bad news could be ten pages. Im just hitting some of the more recent high points. So perhaps some of you with gains in stocks should take some money off the table and put it where it is safe. OF course that is the big question of the day isnt it? What, with the usual safe haven of good sovereign bonds being very questionable. Besides the imminent decline of the USD and that affecting the yield of USD bonds, Japan will have some trouble maintaining their bond quality if they tip into deflation again. And of course who else has bonds people want? Not many. There has been a lot of discussion about the Euro becoming the next alternative to the USD. Problem is there arent enough of them to do the job. There are probably over 100 trillion US dollars out there now working as the de-facto world currency. The number and penetration of Euros is less that one tenth of that. It is going to be interesting to see what happens should there be a simultaneous precipitous drop in world stock markets of the order of 50%. I wonder if the USD is going to survive that. The last time there was a great world depression the USD was a flight to safety. This time, it could be just the opposite. There are two big stories out now. One, and the biggest, is the impending energy war in the Middle East. The other is an emerging world stock collapse. The Prudent Squirrel Newsletter is a big picture gold and economic commentary. Stop by and have a look. (This weeks issue was very short because I was ill this last week.) Christopher Laird Editor-in-Chief www.PrudentSquirrel.com
From: "The Daily Reckoning" <dr@dailyreckoning.com> To: mwman@earthlink.net Subject: The Daily Reckoning - Flu Bug Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2006 16:50:00 -0400 X-ELNK-Info: spv=0; X-ELNK-AV: 0 X-ELNK-Info: sbv=0; sbrc=.0; sbf=00; sbw=000;
A Daily Reckoning Investment Alert
The whole housing market is catching...
THE DENVER FLU
"It is just a blood bath, a path of devastation," says a Denver Realtor. "It is just ugly."
Home prices down 15-17% from a couple of years ago...foreclosures up 63%...and the "flu" is spreading to Naples, Miami, Orange County, Boston...everywhere.
Boston Blues... "It's unbelievable," a Realtor told The Boston Globe. These are "very large drops."
Tears in Florida... "One lady broke down in tears," says a Florida Realtor. "Her husband bought two investment properties, and they are going to lose their life savings."
Minneapolis/St. Paul... "15 houses per buyer. If we had buyers."
Dear Concerned Homeowner,
It's here. For years, we've all heard about the housing bubble and how it could pop. Well, the wait is over. POP!
POP! POP! POP!
The worst real estate bust in American history has begun.
Don't take my word for it. Just ask the people who are in the best position to know, like the Realtors quoted above. They see a drop in prices like you wouldn't believe...
But wait until you hear the lenders - the people who made the bubble possible...
Lenders see a 10-20% tumble in home prices
Yes, you heard right: A 10-20% loss nationwide, according to a poll of American mortgage lenders. And much bigger losses in the hottest markets.
How big? In the last housing bust about 15 years ago, prices in the hot Pacific and New England markets tumbled 25-30%. And that bubble was nothing compared with this one.
Two out of every three lenders told the pollster there IS a bubble. It's real. A spokesman for the polling firm said, "In the minds of lenders, the housing bubble has moved from 'Loch Ness Monster' myth status to an economic reality..."
It gets worse. Due to changes in the mortgage lending market, the housing bust won't be confined to a few hot markets this time. It will affect every single one of us.
In fact, you'll discover in the next few minutes that we're headed into a devastating recession.
5 out of 10 lenders say the bust is here
This is an amazing admission, coming from the heart of the real estate industry. It's as if the makers of aspartame were saying, "Forget it, you're never going to lose weight. And by the way, our product causes cancer."
What's more, the mortgage lenders have lots of company. The activity index of the National Association of Home Builders is at a three-year low. And the National Association of REALTORS now predicts sales will drop this year.
Remember, these are paid hacks for the housing industry. The real situation is two or three times as bad as they admit.
Defaults rock the lenders
Over the last few years, a lot of people paid for their homes with interest-only or adjustable-rate mortgages, called IOMs or ARMs.
Now those mortgages are resetting at higher interest rates. Families can see their monthly payment go up 40 or 50%. The result is a huge, huge wave of defaults now hitting banks like a tsunami.
My name is Dan Amoss, and my newsletter and weekly e-mail service - Strategic Investment - predicted the ARM disaster two years ago. At the time, everyone else was saying real estate is a "can't lose" proposition.
The newsletter said, "Half of all buyers in those 'hot markets' are buying houses they can't afford...When interest rates spike up, their monthly payments are going to soar."
My readers reaped enormous gains if they did exactly what was advised. They protected themselves with the investments recommended:
As I write this, the average position in the portfolio is up 39.3%. Individual picks are up 144%...124%...79%...113%...67%...
And these are just open positions. In 2004, our closed positions sported a gain of 49.5%, and in 2003, our average gain was just a whisker below 70% - to be precise, it was 69.96%.
If you'd followed our strategy, you'd be up 300% in the last four years.
That was then, and this is now. What steps do you need to take today? I explain how to protect yourself and profit in a FREE Special Report called Housing Leads the Way Into Recession: 5 Ways to Protect Yourself.
I beg you to send for your free copy so you don't get clobbered by the worst real estate market in American history.
Folks are losing their homes in record numbers. It's not just a personal problem when 10 or 15 million homeowners have negative equity or can't meet their payments. It will take down the world's biggest lenders. We're staring at a financial collapse.
--Shiva--
Mike Hunter - 30 Sep 2006 17:32 GMT Perhaps the people where you live have no skills to offer an employer. Anybody that does can almost name their price Even WalMart pays $10 and hour for full time employees, plus benefits. LOL
mike hunt
> a little digging finds the FOLLOWING.. I am NOT the author, but > I DO KNOW in MY particular area, WATER is getting dammed hard to [quoted text clipped - 339 lines] > > --Shiva-- Grumpy AuContraire - 30 Sep 2006 22:06 GMT Oh great! How many full time positions exist at any given WalMart?? A dozen??? Maybe two dozen???
JT
> Perhaps the people where you live have no skills to offer an employer. > Anybody that does can almost name their price Even WalMart pays $10 and [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > > jobs? all you want, at $8 an hour, part time.. > > OR LESS.. snip
> > --Shiva-- Mike Hunter - 01 Oct 2006 15:52 GMT Why do you ask? Are you looking for a job there? I suggest you ask the HR person at WalMart, they will have the answer you seek.
mike hunt
mike hunt
> Oh great! How many full time positions exist at any given WalMart?? A > dozen??? Maybe two dozen??? [quoted text clipped - 17 lines] > >> > --Shiva-- Nate Nagel - 30 Sep 2006 22:53 GMT Ooooh, $10 an hour. I'm impressed, now tell me how I can live on that.
nate
> Perhaps the people where you live have no skills to offer an employer. > Anybody that does can almost name their price Even WalMart pays $10 and [quoted text clipped - 345 lines] >> >> --Shiva--
 Signature replace "fly" with "com" to reply. http://home.comcast.net/~njnagel
Lee Aanderud - 01 Oct 2006 00:51 GMT Move to the middle of Kansas and live in a house shared by three families.
Lee
> Ooooh, $10 an hour. I'm impressed, now tell me how I can live on that. > [quoted text clipped - 349 lines] >>> >>> --Shiva-- Mike Hunter - 01 Oct 2006 16:13 GMT Pay you mom for room and board I guess. Better yet stay in school get some training and look for a job that pays more than one where you simply pack shelves.
If you have a skill you might even try getting one of the new automated machinery technician jobs at McDonalds.. Because of the new minimum wage has made automation cost effective, McDonalds is installing robotic equipment that they have had waiting in the wings, in their stores that will make, wrap, and dispense the food the customer choses buy pressing buttons, much as the person behind the counter now does on the cash register, near a picture of the food on a menu board.
They need people with the skills to maintain the robots. Starting pay is around $26 an hour form what I've read. The new stores require any average of three employees per shift, rather than twenty
mike hunt
> Ooooh, $10 an hour. I'm impressed, now tell me how I can live on that. > [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] >> >> mike hunt djvirto - 04 Oct 2006 07:17 GMT Another off topic post for another off topic thread, but a very interesting one.... ------
Hey McDonalds took my idea! Really, this process has been going on for a long time, notably including the cotton gin and automated looms.
It seems like reliable automation could result in endless production, and eliminate the advantage that cheap labor nations like China currently have (other than size and ruthlessness I guess). HOWEVER, it is absolutely crucial to get the population growth of low-skilled people under control, in the U.S. and abroad. We need fewer, but more skilled and more disciplined workers, but what we are getting is more unskilled and disinterested people due to the fact that poor people are having many, many more kids than anyone else. Not only that, but they generally (yes I'm generalizing here so shoot me) don't put much energy into raising them, the kids all too often fall into a culture of underage sex and drugs (which often their parents see as normal), which is a self re-inforcing process.
Ok, not like I'm not talking about anything you don't already know right? But this point doesn't seem to be made often, it is very unpopular, and the only people who I see making it in mainstream media are the guys on shows like Tony Brown's Journal because they are pretty much firewalled from any racism charges (which is an oversimplification and a straw-man counterargument of course, but still a potent one).
Another too-infrequently-made-point that is a pretty obvious reality from where I stand- Anti-intellectualism and the conservative-liberal stalemate has allowed us to cede our culture to the regressive, devolved urban culture, with rap music leading the way (and yeah, yeah I know it's not all bad but this crap they play here in the ghetto about killing all white people and so on is what these kids are listening to). The message these urban kids generally get is that it's not ok to be too smart (you're a nerd or in some circles, just too white), that the most important thing in life is to be tough, that you have to fit in and go along to get along. The only mainstream values that seem to penetrate are nationalism/patriotism the value of which is debateable. What's lost? Being a unique individual, thinking of a Better Way, curiousity for it's own sake (cause if you're tough you've already got it all figured out), respect for very high levels of technical knowledge that don't relate to stereo speaker wiring, and so on. Oh yeah and being considerate of other people for the sake of being nice. That's (often literally) a foreign concept to most urban youth. In fact it's contrary to the goal of being tough.
I listen to what young (2-8 year old) urban kids are saying to see what is filtering through their minds. It's not like I have a choice a lot of times because their parent don't appear to discipline them at all and they run around stores and restaurants screaming.. but I digress.. Frequently the parents are speaking spanish and often make it clear in situations that they don't speak english.. but their kids do. Their kids' minds seem to be filled with all kinds of stuff from TV and movies. Catch phrases seem to stick, I wish I can remember some right now but it's always something out of really cheesy TV dialogue. I'll have to pay more attention.
So I think the good news is that if media were to drop the 'it's right for you' multi-culti paradigm and slip back more into a Victorian style 'this is what's right and if you don't do it you're a bad person' mode things would turn around REAL FAST. My specific generation, who grew up in the media environment of the 80s is a good example.. media told us growing up over and over that drugs were very bad, that sex was very dangerous, that the key to happiness was to get married, and guess what- 5-15 years later many of my peers are teetotalers (seems like many more than the generations after and certainly more than the ones before), and went straight into marriage without a promoscious phase.
Ok this is already very long, but I do want to hazard an even more speculative hypothesis: it is my theory that the spread of literacy created by the protestants followed by cheap printed materials created by technology is the essential factor that lay behind the very moralistic focus of Victorian middle and upper classes. Steeped in brow-beating literature, magazines, and newspapers, you got a culture steeped in brow-beating. I mean this in a positive way. What social order we have now is just the remnant of what the Victorians established (if you ask me).
So all we have to do is solve that conservative-liberal cultural stalemate, figure out what we agree on to move our culture forward, pump out the media to support this, and we'll be able to bring these lower class kids (when it comes down to it they're not all that happy with their lot anyway) into the mainstream culturally.. then we'll be in business in way we haven't seen since 1948-1958... Oh yeah but first we have to get poor people to quit having so many kids so we can afford to put all children into very good schools and train them to have the mental ability to fix robot frying machines...
Feel free to email me off-list and tell me why I'm full of crap.
-patrick patrick@patrickhoyt.com
> Pay you mom for room and board I guess. Better yet stay in school get some > training and look for a job that pays more than one where you simply pack [quoted text clipped - 23 lines] > >> > >> mike hunt me@notanywhere.net - 01 Oct 2006 04:06 GMT On Sat, 30 Sep 2006 12:32:34 -0400, you wrote:
>Perhaps the people where you live have no skills to offer an employer. >Anybody that does can almost name their price Even WalMart pays $10 and >hour for full time employees, plus benefits. LOL > >mike hunt in YOUR AREA maybe.. they got in dutch in Chicago cause they were gonna be forced to pay the $10 an hour, and screamed bloody murder.
I got a Walmart 2 miles from me and the service drive folks that do the tire changes etc, get $8 and thats higher than the store folks get.. supposedly, the store managers 'average' pay across the country is 2 grand a week. give or take a bit
--Shiva--
midlant@earthlink.net - 01 Oct 2006 04:57 GMT I would be more interested in the mean or median than the average pay figure. Average is an old ruse that says, "Ignore the mask I'm wearing."
Karl
> On Sat, 30 Sep 2006 12:32:34 -0400, you wrote: > [quoted text clipped - 15 lines] > > --Shiva-- me@notanywhere.net - 02 Oct 2006 16:26 GMT someone asked.. and it was posted in todays paper.. the MEDIAN household income in my county is a bit over 30k per year.. this county has a population of between 1/4 and 1/3 million, too the median house price is 122k, as of last year when they did the math
--Shiva--
John Poulos - 02 Oct 2006 17:05 GMT My counties median household income is $71,000, but most homes cost 350-500K.
> someone asked.. and it was posted in todays paper.. the MEDIAN > household income in my county is a bit over 30k per year.. this [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > >
 Signature JP/Maryland Studebaker On the Net http://stude.com My Ebay items:http://www.stude.com/EBAY/ 64 Daytona HT 63 R2 4 speed GT Hawk (Black) 63 R1 GT Hawk 63 Avanti R1 63 Avanti R2 (sold) 63 Daytona convert 62 Lark 2 door 60 Hawk 60 Lark Convert 57 Silver Hawk 51 Commander
Paul Villforth - 08 Oct 2006 04:08 GMT And the water that is drinkable is being bought up by multinationals (I almost typed foreign nationals), bottled, and sold back to you.
> a little digging finds the FOLLOWING.. I am NOT the author, but > I DO KNOW in MY particular area, WATER is getting dammed hard to [quoted text clipped - 339 lines] > > --Shiva-- Lee Aanderud - 08 Oct 2006 04:20 GMT Also remember that bottled water does not need to be monitored, unlike tap water. Nearly every nutritionist will tell you the safest water to drink is tap water... it's just not cool to drink water out of a glass today.
Lee
> And the water that is drinkable is being bought up by multinationals (I > almost typed foreign nationals), bottled, and sold back to you. [quoted text clipped - 342 lines] >> >> --Shiva-- midlant@earthlink.net - 09 Oct 2006 06:26 GMT If it says."Drinking Water" it must meet specs. Now, where could a bottler easily get such water at a good price?
(Hint: Lee just told us.)
Karl (Also, it hard to find cheap water that hasn't been spring water at one time or another.)
> Also remember that bottled water does not need to be monitored, unlike tap > water. Nearly every nutritionist will tell you the safest water to drink is [quoted text clipped - 348 lines] > >> > >> --Shiva--
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