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Car Forum / Toyota / Prius / February 2007

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Lifetime of a Toyota Prius

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Phil - 19 Jan 2007 04:37 GMT
I am looking at purchasing a Prius and as I was researching I found an
article that quoted an Australian manager from Toyota on the lifetime
of the battery and the car.  I have pasted the paragraph below

Toyota's manager of alternative fuels and specialized vehicles, Vic
Johnstone, concedes the batteries, like the car itself, are built to
last
less than a decade. "The life of the car and the battery are
supposed to be the same... around 8 to 10 years," he said. "We're
not expecting to replace them [the batteries]. In fact we only hold
one [replacement] battery in stock nationally."

This seemed a very short lifetime for a car to me so I researched the
matter further.

Other sites quoted toyota as saying the lifetime of the car is about
109,000 miles (174,400 km).  Travelling about 9400 miles (15000 km per
year) this makes the lifetime of the Prius around 9 years.

If this is indeed the case it makes the lifetime cost of the Prius very
high compared to the average vehicle which should last at least 16
years (travelling 15,000 km annually).

Can anyone give me any more information on the accuracy of this
information or add to the discussion.
Michael Pardee - 19 Jan 2007 12:56 GMT
>I am looking at purchasing a Prius and as I was researching I found an
> article that quoted an Australian manager from Toyota on the lifetime
[quoted text clipped - 21 lines]
> Can anyone give me any more information on the accuracy of this
> information or add to the discussion.

Oh no! The 2002 I bought a few months ago has only 3K miles to live!

Seriously, the reason so few batteries are stocked is because the demand is
so low. I've lost count, but altogether I've heard of perhaps a dozen main
battery replacments. The symptoms in each case pointed to failing
connections within the battery, possibly within individual cells, rather
than loss of capacity. Age seems to be a minor factor. I've never heard of a
Prius being scrapped because it needed a main battery.

The supply of batteries from wrecks greatly exceeds the demand. A member of
the Yahoo! Prius Technical Stuff forum bought a main battery on ebay for
$600 for experimentation... not bad, considering the core value of a battery
is $200 US from Toyota.

I hadn't heard if the owner of the Yahoo! Prius forum reached 200K miles on
his 2001 yet; the last I recall was something like 194K miles. The first
owner to exceed 200K miles was probably the famous (in some circles)
Vancouver taxi owner whose service record extends through 206K miles -
http://www.hybridexperience.ca/Pages/images/scan.pdf

Compare this with Ford Taurus automatics, which had a design flaw in the
forward clutch piston that effectively limited the life of the vehicle to
125-150K miles.

Mike
mrv@kluge.net - 19 Jan 2007 18:27 GMT
> I hadn't heard if the owner of the Yahoo! Prius forum reached 200K miles on
> his 2001 yet; the last I recall was something like 194K miles. The first

Eric posted about passing 200,000 miles at:
http://autos.groups.yahoo.com/group/toyota-prius/message/97293

according to his signature on his most recent post,
http://autos.groups.yahoo.com/group/toyota-prius/message/98880 , his
vehicles are up to:
Eric Metzler in Enfield, Maine
'00 Silver Insight #223, "Alumena"
106,000 miles, 57.1 mpg over last 72,000 miles
'01 Green Prius, "Genie"
205,000 miles, 40/46 winter/summer mpg
'04 Tideland Pearl Prius pkg. 9, "Puddleglum"
70,000 miles, 46mpg (less in winter)

> The first
> owner to exceed 200K miles was probably the famous (in some circles)
> Vancouver taxi owner whose service record extends through 206K miles -
> http://www.hybridexperience.ca/Pages/images/scan.pdf

and another hybrid taxi owner in BC is now over 254,000 miles as well:
http://www.hybridexperience.ca/Toyota_Prius.htm#hybridtaxi

Meanwhile, I still can't believe that people are still quoting the CNW
paper with a Prius lifetime of only ~100,000 miles...  That report is
so riddled with poor assumptions (causing bad math) as to reek of
anti-hybrid propaganda.

(I suppose that if you counted all the vehicles disposed of early by
accidents, as opposed to those scrapped by age/wear/repair costs, then
maybe you could sufficiently drag down a vehicle's lifespan, but that
doesn't help with longevity questions but more with insurance
questions... (I guess this is similar to how infant mortality rates
greatly affect a population's life expectancy.)

Some articles for further reading:
http://pressroom.toyota.com/Releases/View?id=TYT2004062345528 (bench
testing of hybrid battery)
http://avt.inl.gov/pdf/hev/end_of_life_test_1.pdf (fuel economy and
battery capacity testing once  160,000 miles are reached on a Classic
Prius, GenI HCH, Insight)
http://avt.inl.gov/hev.shtml (HEV testing)
http://www.toronto.ca/fleet/pdf/technology_testing_report_0703.pdf
(all vehicles tested are expected to have a life cycle of ownership of
only 8 years)
http://www.arb.ca.gov/regs/title13/2112.pdf (California Code of
Regulations, title 13, requiring vehicles to have a useful life of
(depending on passenger vehicle) 5 years/50,000 miles (whichever occurs
first), or 7 years/75,000 miles, 10 years/120,000 miles, or 10
years/150,000 miles.  See Division 3, chapter 2, Article 2.1, section
10 and 17. (BTW: 2004-current Prius qualifies under the 10 year/150,000
mile criteria.))
Sherman - 21 Jan 2007 06:21 GMT
When my battery dies i'm replacing it with a plug-in kit like the ones at
calcars.org

>> I hadn't heard if the owner of the Yahoo! Prius forum reached 200K miles on
>> his 2001 yet; the last I recall was something like 194K miles. The first
[quoted text clipped - 50 lines]
> 10 and 17. (BTW: 2004-current Prius qualifies under the 10 year/150,000
> mile criteria.))
mrv@kluge.net - 27 Jan 2007 18:09 GMT
On Jan 19, 1:27 pm, "m...@kluge.net" <m...@kluge.net> wrote:
> (I suppose that if you counted all the vehicles disposed of early by
> accidents, as opposed to those scrapped by age/wear/repair costs, then
> maybe you could sufficiently drag down a vehicle's lifespan, but that
> doesn't help with longevity questions but more with insurance
> questions... (I guess this is similar to how infant mortality rates
> greatly affect a population's life expectancy.)

So, I guess the question is - how do you define vehicle life
expectancy?  Is it how long the car should last if outside forces do
not interfere (just the health of the components of the vehicle), or
is it the average of all of the vehicles of that type last (even
adding in early deaths due to accidents)?
mrv@kluge.net - 05 Feb 2007 04:28 GMT
On Jan 27, 1:09 pm, "m...@kluge.net" <m...@kluge.net> wrote:

> So, I guess the question is - how do you define vehicle life
> expectancy?  Is it how long the car should last if outside forces do
> not interfere (just the health of the components of the vehicle), or
> is it the average of all of the vehicles of that type last (even
> adding in early deaths due to accidents)?

I'll note that I was just watching the show "Understanding" on the
Science Channel, episode titled "Widgets" (from 2004), which stated
that the average lifetime for an automobile is only 14 years.
mark_digital© - 05 Feb 2007 05:26 GMT
> On Jan 27, 1:09 pm, "m...@kluge.net" <m...@kluge.net> wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
> Science Channel, episode titled "Widgets" (from 2004), which stated
> that the average lifetime for an automobile is only 14 years.

OK so how did they come up with that average?
pacificdays@lost.net - 06 Feb 2007 03:49 GMT
>On Jan 27, 1:09 pm, "m...@kluge.net" <m...@kluge.net> wrote:
>
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>Science Channel, episode titled "Widgets" (from 2004), which stated
>that the average lifetime for an automobile is only 14 years.

Really?  The average age of a boy molested by a Republican is also 14
years.  What a co-in-kee-dink.
mark_digital© - 06 Feb 2007 06:18 GMT
>>On Jan 27, 1:09 pm, "m...@kluge.net" <m...@kluge.net> wrote:
>>
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> Really?  The average age of a boy molested by a Republican is also 14
> years.  What a co-in-kee-dink.

Hopefully with some counseling they'll be ok. Don't worry about.
Tom - 14 Feb 2007 04:05 GMT
>>>On Jan 27, 1:09 pm, "m...@kluge.net" <m...@kluge.net> wrote:
>>>
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
>
> Hopefully with some counseling they'll be ok. Don't worry about.
Who gets the counseling?  The nav lady?
mrv@kluge.net - 05 Feb 2007 21:50 GMT
On Jan 27, 1:09 pm, "m...@kluge.net" <m...@kluge.net> wrote:
> So, I guess the question is - how do you define vehicle life
> expectancy?  Is it how long the car should last if outside forces do
> not interfere (just the health of the components of the vehicle), or
> is it the average of all of the vehicles of that type last (even
> adding in early deaths due to accidents)?

A UK 2001 report from the Commission for Integrated Transport puts the
Brittish car's life expectancy average at 13.95 years, and a scrappage
chart of cars in the UK shows that most cars there are put to scrap in
years 13-17.  Some die in year 1, some go past 22, but...
http://www.cfit.gov.uk/docs/2001/scot0122/scot0122/02.htm

A 2006 US DOT updated report finds that the typical passenger car will
travel a lifetime mileage of 152,137 miles (25 years), while light
trucks will travel 179,954 miles (36 years).  This is given as when
the surviving number of those vehicles reached below the 2% mark.
Previous governmental reports used 126,665 miles for passenger cars
(20 years) and 153,698 miles for light trucks (25 years).  These
numbers are used to estimate the impact of proposed fuel economy
standards or future fuel consumption/operating costs.  If you look at
the charts on page 9 (12 of the PDF) and 12 (15 of the PDF), you'll
see that the 50% point (where half of the vehicles are no longer
surviving) is around 13-14 years.
http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/pdf/nrd-30/NCSA/Rpts/2006/809952.pdf
mark_digital© - 19 Jan 2007 17:41 GMT
>I am looking at purchasing a Prius and as I was researching I found an
> article that quoted an Australian manager from Toyota on the lifetime
[quoted text clipped - 21 lines]
> Can anyone give me any more information on the accuracy of this
> information or add to the discussion.

How old is your information may I ask?
Phil - 20 Jan 2007 05:30 GMT
The article was dated october 2003.

See the following link to the article:

http://www.carpoint.com.au/print.aspx?TabID=500945&R=ce5452&ModID=1001879

The quote about life of car can be followed from a link in the article
or directly with the following link:

http://www.carpoint.com.au/car-news/DesktopDefault.aspx?tabID=500648&ArticleID=5
487&R=ce5487


mark_digital? wrote:
> >I am looking at purchasing a Prius and as I was researching I found an
> > article that quoted an Australian manager from Toyota on the lifetime
[quoted text clipped - 23 lines]
>
> How old is your information may I ask?
Michael Pardee - 20 Jan 2007 15:31 GMT
The article was dated october 2003.

See the following link to the article:

http://www.carpoint.com.au/print.aspx?TabID=500945&R=ce5452&ModID=1001879

=================================================================
The article is quite even-handed; it does point out that "there have been
questions raised about the life span of its battery pack, the replacement
cost and relative recyclability." That covers it well. Googling "Prius
battery fail" returns about 120K hits, mostly speculating on how common and
frequent the main battery failures will be. Googling "Honda transmission
fail" [without quotes] returns about 600K hits, most asking why their
transmission failed, how to get Honda to pay for it (Honda provides extended
coverage for a group of their transmissions that had a high failure rate),
etc. Googling "Taurus transmission fail" returns about 170K hits... same
thing, except Ford didn't support the customers. Bottom line: ten years
after the Prius was introduced in Japan people are still speculating how
long the batteries will last because they aren't failing in enough numbers
to provide data.
===================================================================

The quote about life of car can be followed from a link in the article
or directly with the following link:

http://www.carpoint.com.au/car-news/DesktopDefault.aspx?tabID=500648&ArticleID=5
487&R=ce5487


=================================================================

That's more familiar. Toyota has consistently maintained the battery is
designed to last the life of the car. Normally, Toyota reps have declined to
put a figure on the design life of the car, just as all mfrs except perhaps
Rolls Royce do. You can see the danger: BelchFire says their car is designed
to last 10 years, then MotorSkate says theirs is designed to last 12
years... leading to a Liar's Poker escalation in which the competitors
finally turn on SteelHorse and say "Oh yeah? Prove your cars actually last
two hundred years!"  More recently we have heard a Toyota rep say the car is
designed to last 12 to 15 years. I suspect he was also speaking out of
school.

The same article is the basis of a lot of FUD concerning the "greenness" of
the NiMH batteries Toyota uses. This particular article even suggests
special handling if a lot of the NiMH batteries are collected in one place,
but doesn't mention that Toyota pays $200 for the return of unserviceable
hybrid batteries. Presumably Toyota contracted in advance for the recycler
(it would be smart business practice in Japan) and rolled the contract
amount into the purchase price of their hybrids. In any event, nickle is too
valuable to just throw away.

This is also an Australian site, which explains why the battery - actually
hybrid system - warranty is given as 5 years. Here in the US the base hybrid
system warranty period has been 8 years / 100K miles since the beginning,
while in the states that adhere to California's emission rules the warranty
is 10 years / 150K miles. It goes without saying the failure rate in that
worst case (10 years / 150K miles) is expected to be low, or Toyota would be
smart not to offer the vehicle in those states. So far that matches the real
world experience of the early adopters.

Mike
mark_digital© - 21 Jan 2007 10:24 GMT
>>The article was dated october 2003<<

--------------------------------------------

Thanks for the links. I read both articles.
I can relate to your pre-purchase concern about the batteries. In 2002 our
local Toyota dealer finally had a Prius we could actually touch instead of
just reading about. We spoke with their service department and found out if
the battery pack failed after the warrantee a replacement would cost $4800
(US). It didn't scare me away because I just plunked down almost that amount
on a new computer and accessories. And what for? A marginally faster
processor?
Anyway, 2003 rolls around and the battery is now $3400, the color we wanted
was immediately at hand, and factory cruise control was added.
Here we are 4 years later and the car has just a little bit over 87,000
miles, 50,000 miles on the second set of tires, and no major or minor
electrical or mechanical problems. Last I heard, $2000 for a battery.
We have plans to buy another Prius but we don't know when. I can't think of
any reason not to unless there isn't a Toyota service department that's
trustworthy. If gasoline was free we still would want a Prius. If critics
managed to somehow drive the retail cost down, that's good too. I do fear
Toyota will sacrifice fuel efficiency to level the playing field amongst
their line-up of hybrids.

mark_
Phil - 24 Jan 2007 10:32 GMT
My real concern was not so much the battery life as the vehicle life.
If the battery last 7-10 years thats quite reasonable.  But for toyota
to say the car itself has a life of less than 10 years concerns me.  I
am very much a buy and drive till it dies sort of car owner.  I have
previously had a manual Mazda 626 which lasted 21 years (1 engine
recondition) and a Mitsubishi Nimbus which is still going strong after
14 years (one replacement automatic transmission and another not so far
away).

For the price of a Prius I would expect a lifetime of at least 16 years
(if not 20).  When I calculate the total purchase and lifetime running
costs (petrol, insurance, maintainence, tyres, etc) for a Prius
(assuming lifespan of 10 years) and compare it to a V6 Camry (assuming
lifespan of 16 years) I get an annualised cost for the Prius of
AUD$7500 per annum and for the V6 Camry of AUD$6800 per annum.

That means that even with the much lower petrol costs, the shorter life
makes the Prius a more expensive option.  The calculation would be
completely different if the Prius was made to last 16 years (the
annualised cost for the Prius would drop to AUD$6100 per annum).

So is Toyota saying you pay a premium to be environmentally
responsible?

> >>The article was dated october 2003<<--------------------------------------------
>
[quoted text clipped - 19 lines]
>
> mark_
mark_digital© - 24 Jan 2007 12:38 GMT
My real concern was not so much the battery life as the vehicle life.
If the battery last 7-10 years thats quite reasonable.  But for toyota
to say the car itself has a life of less than 10 years concerns me.  I
am very much a buy and drive till it dies sort of car owner.  I have
previously had a manual Mazda 626 which lasted 21 years (1 engine
recondition) and a Mitsubishi Nimbus which is still going strong after
14 years (one replacement automatic transmission and another not so far
away).

For the price of a Prius I would expect a lifetime of at least 16 years
(if not 20).  When I calculate the total purchase and lifetime running
costs (petrol, insurance, maintainence, tyres, etc) for a Prius
(assuming lifespan of 10 years) and compare it to a V6 Camry (assuming
lifespan of 16 years) I get an annualised cost for the Prius of
AUD$7500 per annum and for the V6 Camry of AUD$6800 per annum.

That means that even with the much lower petrol costs, the shorter life
makes the Prius a more expensive option.  The calculation would be
completely different if the Prius was made to last 16 years (the
annualised cost for the Prius would drop to AUD$6100 per annum).

So is Toyota saying you pay a premium to be environmentally
responsible?

______________________________________________
Sorry, Phil. I can't discuss this with you any further unless you adjust
your newsreader back to indenting replies. Until then, happy motoring.
Michael Pardee - 24 Jan 2007 13:04 GMT
My real concern was not so much the battery life as the vehicle life.
If the battery last 7-10 years thats quite reasonable.  But for toyota
to say the car itself has a life of less than 10 years concerns me.  I
am very much a buy and drive till it dies sort of car owner.  I have
previously had a manual Mazda 626 which lasted 21 years (1 engine
recondition) and a Mitsubishi Nimbus which is still going strong after
14 years (one replacement automatic transmission and another not so far
away).

For the price of a Prius I would expect a lifetime of at least 16 years
(if not 20).  When I calculate the total purchase and lifetime running
costs (petrol, insurance, maintainence, tyres, etc) for a Prius
(assuming lifespan of 10 years) and compare it to a V6 Camry (assuming
lifespan of 16 years) I get an annualised cost for the Prius of
AUD$7500 per annum and for the V6 Camry of AUD$6800 per annum.

That means that even with the much lower petrol costs, the shorter life
makes the Prius a more expensive option.  The calculation would be
completely different if the Prius was made to last 16 years (the
annualised cost for the Prius would drop to AUD$6100 per annum).

So is Toyota saying you pay a premium to be environmentally
responsible?

================================================================

Your question really highlights an area of contention: when is a car at the
end of its useful life? I have mostly bought cars that were at what the
previous owners considered the end of their useful lives for 30 years. My
belief is that 80-100K miles is the sweet spot. At 50K miles it is very hard
to tell how a car has been treated; at 100K it is very hard to hide. Any car
that is in good condition after 100K miles is likely to give at least 100K
more before it is really done. Exceptions are those with time bombs, like
the Taurus automatic transmission and some of the '80s GM ABS. Years seem to
matter most in how the interior holds up - the Royalite plastic suffers
most.

That's the thing we don't know about the Prius. Is there a vital part -
battery, hybrid transaxle, inverter - that will not reliably make it past a
particular milestone? In terms of miles, I am confident the answer is "yes"
because plenty of people have made it into the 200K mile area wthout
trouble. It's the years we don't know about; the model has only been out ten
years now. OTOH, in those ten years no trouble spot has emerged.

There is no "sure thing" in buying cars, but our two 2002 Prius cars have
been the most reliable cars I've ever owned. I've only had two new cars
before and they were both *far* less reliable than the Prius. One of the
Prius we bought new in November 2002 and the other I bought a few months ago
with 103K miles on it. I handed down my 22 year old, 240K mile Volvo to my
son-in-law when I bought the second Prius :-)  'Research and decide' has
served me well.

Mike
Michael Pardee - 25 Jan 2007 00:55 GMT
> That's the thing we don't know about the Prius. Is there a vital part -
> battery, hybrid transaxle, inverter - that will not reliably make it past
> a particular milestone? In terms of miles, I am confident the answer is
> "yes"

ah... "yes" meaning "no!" <8^P - - - Mike

> because plenty of people have made it into the 200K mile area wthout
> trouble. It's the years we don't know about; the model has only been out
> ten years now. OTOH, in those ten years no trouble spot has emerged.
Michelle Steiner - 24 Jan 2007 17:09 GMT
> My real concern was not so much the battery life as the vehicle life.
> If the battery last 7-10 years thats quite reasonable.  But for
> toyota to say the car itself has a life of less than 10 years
> concerns me.

When has any car company officially said what the expected life span of
a car is?

Signature

Support the troops:  Bring them home ASAP.

mark_digital© - 24 Jan 2007 19:27 GMT
>> My real concern was not so much the battery life as the vehicle life.
>> If the battery last 7-10 years thats quite reasonable.  But for
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> When has any car company officially said what the expected life span of
> a car is?

If vehicle life is determined by parts availability (and I'm not saying it
is for sure) then if Toyota says 10 years, that quote could be understood as
their legal requirement to supply parts. And *if* that's true, whoever Phil
personally spoke to is manipulating the facts. I think it's also called a
little white lie.
Pure speculation on my part (no pun intended).
Michael Pardee - 25 Jan 2007 00:58 GMT
> When has any car company officially said what the expected life span of
> a car is?

The only one I can think of is Rolls Royce. They used to say a Rolls is
designed to last 50 years and that it was the last car anybody had to buy,
but that was a while ago.

Mike
pacificdays@lost.net - 25 Jan 2007 16:45 GMT
>> My real concern was not so much the battery life as the vehicle life.
>> If the battery last 7-10 years thats quite reasonable.  But for
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>When has any car company officially said what the expected life span of
>a car is?

Longer than the expected life span of a lesbian "relationship."

In 2004, the first lesbian couple married in Canada, the ones
responsible as to why homosexual marriages are legal in Canada, now
wanted a divorce but they were unable to because there is nothing in
the law permitting a divorce among homosexual spouses. What does this
say to us?  They were together for decades and couldn't stand each
other for a week of marriage once their queer fantasy popped and the
reality set in that they were sinning against nature.

Wonder who shifted the "stick" in that relationship.  LOL.

HTH.  :-)))
Bob Wilson - 27 Jan 2007 00:58 GMT
> Other sites quoted toyota as saying the lifetime of the car is about
> 109,000 miles (174,400 km).  Travelling about 9400 miles (15000 km per
> year) this makes the lifetime of the Prius around 9 years.

Wrong web sites:

http://avt.inel.gov/hev.html
http://www.hybridexperience.ca/Toyota_Prius_Fuel_Performance.htm

These fleet reports show:

- Department of Energy achieved more than 160,000 miles for hybrids
including Prius
- Canadian Prius taxi with over 332,000 km

Then you can also go to Ebay and look at the used Prius mileage. In
short, we're seeing mileage exceed 109,000 miles and everyday, they get
more miles.

Bob Wilson
 
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