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Car Forum / Toyota / Prius / April 2007

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Prius vs. Hummer

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Jean B. - 21 Mar 2007 14:03 GMT
Some folks like to chide me (and others) about the Prius.  One
posted a link to an editorial piece, which has the header
"Prius Outdoes Hummer in Environmental Damage".  See:

http://clubs.ccsu.edu/recorder/editorial/editorial_item.asp?NewsID=188

I'm sure some of the folks here with more technically-oriented
minds would have some good counterarguments?
Signature

Jean B.

mrv@kluge.net - 21 Mar 2007 17:04 GMT
> Some folks like to chide me (and others) about the Prius.  One
> posted a link to an editorial piece, which has the header
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> --
> Jean B.

It's been refuted on most of the main Prius discussion groups since it
came out a while ago.  The most recent public thread is here:
http://autos.groups.yahoo.com/group/toyota-prius/message/100720

(the "lifetime" of each vehicle is vastly out of proportion to make
the hummer look better, the story uses very old information on a
Canadian nickel mine that has been working hard to clean itself up
(and is currently much cleaner than the story asserts), the story came
from a source known to do reports favorable to whomever paid for the
report, etc.)
Jean B. - 21 Mar 2007 17:50 GMT
>> Some folks like to chide me (and others) about the Prius.  One
>> posted a link to an editorial piece, which has the header
[quoted text clipped - 17 lines]
> from a source known to do reports favorable to whomever paid for the
> report, etc.)

Thanks, I'll go take a look.  I did wonder about that 100,000
mile lifetime they assigned to the Prius.

Signature

Jean B.

If you are not part of the solution, you are not dissolved in
the solvent.

bob - 22 Mar 2007 00:00 GMT
>>> Some folks like to chide me (and others) about the Prius.  One
>>> posted a link to an editorial piece, which has the header
[quoted text clipped - 20 lines]
> Thanks, I'll go take a look.  I did wonder about that 100,000 mile
> lifetime they assigned to the Prius.

why would any GM product outlive a toyota? that's not the norm for sure..if
they're assuming you throw the prius away after the batteries go, that's
just bad logic.

bob
Ashton Crusher - 22 Mar 2007 07:35 GMT
>>>> Some folks like to chide me (and others) about the Prius.  One
>>>> posted a link to an editorial piece, which has the header
[quoted text clipped - 26 lines]
>
>bob

Why wouldn't it?  Or a ford product? How many Chevies and Fords have
served one career as a police car and a second as a taxi?  I've never
seen a Toyota do so.
Michael Pardee - 22 Mar 2007 13:36 GMT
>>why would any GM product outlive a toyota? that's not the norm for
>>sure..if
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> served one career as a police car and a second as a taxi?  I've never
> seen a Toyota do so.

Fords and GMs almost seem tailored for fleet service. They typically have
lower initial purchase costs and are reliable enough during the warranty
period. After that they have a period of moderate cost failures before they
descend into "beater" status. The first phase is attractive to police and
utility service, while the second phase is attractive to taxi service.

I've hung around Ford and GM fora (among others) recently, looking for ideas
for a car for my new-driver son-in-law. As a DIYer the second phase doesn't
worry me, assuming the car doesn't have common expensive "gotchas." Would he
and I prefer a Honda or Toyota or Hyundai? Sure... but the price of a decent
one is out of his range.

Mike
Greg - 22 Mar 2007 13:49 GMT
Isn't this thread a little "apples and oranges"?
I don't see much to compare between a Hummer
and a Prius.

I have an '01 Prius with about 133K miles on it, and
it feels like I've just passed the initial break-in period.

Anyone have a good idea where I might sell it? I'm
about ready to move up to the current generation Prius.
i.e. '04 or newer...

Thanks!                                           - Greg

 Guru Says GOODBYE To Search Engines
http://1stBe.com/goodbye-search-engines

>>>why would any GM product outlive a toyota? that's not the norm for
>>>sure..if
[quoted text clipped - 20 lines]
>
> Mike
Michael Pardee - 23 Mar 2007 16:11 GMT
> Isn't this thread a little "apples and oranges"?
> I don't see much to compare between a Hummer
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
>
> Thanks!                                           - Greg

Craig's List is popular, but I found mine in the classifieds of our local
paper. The seller lives a bit over 100 miles away, but for a car that isn't
too far to go. Most fora also don't complain about one quick post to say you
have a car of the forum's type for sale, but be sure to include your
location.

The seller did mention a number of people responding to the newspaper ad
(which didn't give the miles) shrank when they heard it had 103K miles on
the clock. That's in what I consider the "sweet spot" for used cars - it's
easy to tell how they have been treated, and they still have 100K to 200K
miles left. 133K still scares some people, mostly geezers like me who
remember when engines and front ends were getting pretty ragged by 100K. I
consider all properly maintained and driven Hondas and Toyotas to be in
their prime in the 100Ks. (No rust around here.)

Patience... there must be a number of Prius enthusiasts who are looking for
a used "Classic."

Mike
Greg - 02 Apr 2007 14:19 GMT
Thanks Mike,

I posted my last car ad for my '04 Prius in our local newspaper
classifieds. It was $34 for unlimited space/words, and ran for
10 days. The circulation was >200K, but I got few calls on it.
Ended up selling it on eBay, but that cost me $85!

I'm currently trying a selling service based in Las Vegas. They
run your ad on multiple web sites and in several publications.
The ads run until car is sold. $289

In case anybody might be interested, mine's an '01 Prius
w/133K miles. $10.9K OBO.  Located in Mishawaka, near
S. Bend, IN. (home of the Hummer!)  View it at:
http://ItsPhotos.com/Prius

Thanks again!                                 - Greg

P.S. That company I'm with that's listing my car found me
via my ad on CraigsList.org!

Now Easily Make Your First $50K Online!
Videos, More at http://1stBe.com/1st50k
Guru Says GOODBYE To Search Engines
http://1stBe.com/goodbye-search-engines

>> Isn't this thread a little "apples and oranges"?
>> I don't see much to compare between a Hummer
[quoted text clipped - 28 lines]
>
> Mike
Bob Wilson - 02 Apr 2007 14:27 GMT
> In case anybody might be interested, mine's an '01 Prius
> w/133K miles. $10.9K OBO.  Located in Mishawaka, near
> S. Bend, IN. (home of the Hummer!)  View it at:
> http://ItsPhotos.com/Prius

The Blue Book value is?

Bob Wilson
Greg - 02 Apr 2007 15:12 GMT
$11,735

>> In case anybody might be interested, mine's an '01 Prius
>> w/133K miles. $10.9K OBO.  Located in Mishawaka, near
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>
> Bob Wilson
Bob Wilson - 23 Mar 2007 01:47 GMT
> Why wouldn't it?  Or a ford product? How many Chevies and Fords have
> served one career as a police car and a second as a taxi?  I've never
> seen a Toyota do so.

You need to do a Google search for "taxi toyota". For good measure,
"Ford Escape taxi".

Bob Wilson
Michael Pardee - 22 Mar 2007 02:53 GMT
> Thanks, I'll go take a look.  I did wonder about that 100,000 mile
> lifetime they assigned to the Prius.

Me too - my 2002 had 103K miles when I bought it!

Mike
Claudio - 21 Mar 2007 18:25 GMT
> Some folks like to chide me (and others) about the Prius.  One
> posted a link to an editorial piece, which has the header
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> --
> Jean B.

It is quite true what is said in the article, there is only one
paramount thing to talk about: the nickel they are talking about is
used for every nickel based battery: Ni-MH and Ni-Cd, i.e. cell
phones, toys, digital cameras, laptop etc... The part of them used for
the Prius is only a very small percentage and in any case is used by
Toyota only because already developed and used in big quantity. I do
not believe that, without the development of Prius, the use of Ni for
the batteries would have been significantly lower to be perceived.
In addition I do believe that the production of the Hummer, since it
is heaviest in every part of it, requires much more energy to melt and
work the steel.
Claudio
geneccc@gmail.com - 01 Apr 2007 16:27 GMT
> > Some folks like to chide me (and others) about the Prius.  One
> > posted a link to an editorial piece, which has the header
[quoted text clipped - 19 lines]
> work the steel.
> Claudio

There are almost 500,000,000 passenger vehicles in the world today. A
Hummer consumes about 3 times the weight in materials than a passenger
car in production and parts. Imagine how much more destruction to the
earth if all vehicles were Hummers!
Bob Wilson - 22 Mar 2007 01:47 GMT
> Some folks like to chide me (and others) about the Prius.  One
> posted a link to an editorial piece, which has the header
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
> I'm sure some of the folks here with more technically-oriented
> minds would have some good counterarguments?

NOTE: After I sent this letter to the editor, I got an e-mail reply from
the student:

". . .
In all honesty, I threw the paper together in thirty minutes, checked my
attribution, and sent it into my editor because I had nothing better to
do. I can tell you put some effort into writing and researching this,
and I would like to return the effort by delving into the information
you provided me. "

My point is it does no good to bring the facts and data to a Prius
friendly forum (nor a an anti-hybrid forum.) However, the editors of
writers have vested interest in credibility. It behoves us to take the
time and send an ORIGINAL letter to the editor. That is the only way we
can get the lazy and incompetent journalists to go into advertising,
where they belong.

- - - - -

After checking with the editor, I understand they will review but may
or may not elect to publish this rebuttal:

Dear Editor,

Chris Demorro's opinion piece, "Prius Outdoes Hummer in Environmental
Damage" suffers from a lack of fact checking. He claims ". . . their
ultimate 'green car' is the source of some of the worst pollution in
North America" copied from a flawed _Daily_ _Mail_ article without at
least fact checking the environmental record of the Inco Sudbury
Canadian plant, http://wwww.inco-sudbury-airquality.com/.

Frank Javor, Superintendent, Health and Environment, CVRD Inco Smelting
Operations e-mailed their annual emissions data going back to 1974, 23
years before Toyota sold their first Prius. Since then, INCO has made a
90% reduction in SO(2) and INCO emissions continue to go down.

Chris failed to check the amount of nickel used in hybrid batteries,
about 200 pounds per vehicle or 30 million pounds for 150,000 existing
Prius versus the annual Canadian nickel output, over 380 million pounds.
Nickel production is driven by the vastly larger market for stainless
steel and other high temperature metals.

Failure to fact check is compounded when the flawed CNW Marketing report
is cited while the "Institute for Lifecycle Environmental Assessment",
http://www.ilea.org/lcas/macleanlave1998.html, from Carnegie Mellon
University, reports 73% of the energy used comes from operation, not
manufacturing. Only CNW Marketing makes this false claim and compounds
the error by using dollars instead of Joules, an energy unit.

Those who have read the CNW Marketing report can confirm a large number
of false claims including assignment of shorter vehicle lifetimes to
hybrids, excessively development costs, false recycling claims, and a
claim that hybrids are "a style.' This last lie suggests that if someone
had a gas-only Camry and a hybrid Camry, they would drive the gas Camry
even with $3/gal gas because the hybrid is "a style."

An opinion piece that states the opposite of the facts and data is
deliberately misleading to the point of propaganda. Hybrids aren't for
everyone but in this case, Chris failed to fact check and at best, his
piece was misleading.

Robert J. Wilson
Sr. Network Engineer
Jean B. - 22 Mar 2007 15:37 GMT
>> Some folks like to chide me (and others) about the Prius.  One
>> posted a link to an editorial piece, which has the header
[quoted text clipped - 68 lines]
> Robert J. Wilson
> Sr. Network Engineer

I KNEW there was a reason I wanted to bring this up here!  :-)

My Prius and I are smiling!

Signature

Jean B.

Bob Wilson - 24 Mar 2007 13:10 GMT
> Prius Outdoes Hummer

The other day, I figured out how a Hummer mileage record might get set.
Start with say four Hummers and equip each one with a front-bumper, tow
bar and rear ball. Link them all together to make a 'Hummer Train."

The front Hummer drives until it runs out of gas. The second one
disconnnects and the empty Hummer is added to the end. Repeat this as
many times as necessary to run all of the Hummers out of gas.

Calculate the MPG using the gas for each Hummer and the mileage for all
of them. The trick is Hummer mileage is so low that even towing, it
doesn't go down that much. With the front-to-bumper towing, they are
drafting each other like bicyclists.

Bob Wilson
Michael Pardee - 24 Mar 2007 20:22 GMT
>> Prius Outdoes Hummer
>
[quoted text clipped - 12 lines]
>
> Bob Wilson

Okay... but what do we do with the train of Hummers when they are all out of
gas?

Mike
DougSlug - 25 Mar 2007 20:28 GMT
>>> Prius Outdoes Hummer
>>
[quoted text clipped - 17 lines]
>
> Mike

Pick up all the drivers in a Prius and transport them with gas cans to the
nearest gas station ?
Bob Wilson - 26 Mar 2007 16:54 GMT
> > Okay... but what do we do with the train of Hummers when they are all out
> > of gas?
>
> Pick up all the drivers in a Prius and transport them with gas cans to the
> nearest gas station ?

A Prius with a trailer and 55 gallon drums. <GRINS>

Bob Wilson
geneccc@gmail.com - 30 Mar 2007 22:21 GMT
> Some folks like to chide me (and others) about the Prius.  One
> posted a link to an editorial piece, which has the header
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> --
> Jean B

Why are so many people against clean air?
Michael Pardee - 31 Mar 2007 01:29 GMT
> Why are so many people against clean air?

Although the Prius is a champion at clean operation, the Hummer isn't nearly
as bad as cars in earlier times were. Certainly if somebody actually
believed the propaganda, they would see the Prius as trading clean air for
dirty land and water.

Misinformation is the enemy of us all.

Mike
geneccc@gmail.com - 31 Mar 2007 14:19 GMT
On Mar 30, 8:29 pm, "Michael Pardee" <michaeltn...@cybertrails.com>
wrote:
> <gene...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
>
> Mike

Hey Mike, why not show us a fully documented, scientifically vetted
link to support your ideas?
Michael Pardee - 31 Mar 2007 19:59 GMT
> On Mar 30, 8:29 pm, "Michael Pardee" <michaeltn...@cybertrails.com>
> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 17 lines]
> Hey Mike, why not show us a fully documented, scientifically vetted
> link to support your ideas?

If you want to contest it, feel free to research and get back to us with
data that meets your own standards. I recall the introduction of the PCV
valve; I remember when catalysts were new and when carburetors were standard
equipment. I have owned cars that had an idle CO spec (for emissions
testing) of over 2%. You are saying we have made little or no progress in
decreasing emissions. The idea is nothing short of ludicrous.

Mike
geneccc@gmail.com - 01 Apr 2007 05:05 GMT
On Mar 31, 2:59 pm, "Michael Pardee" <michaeltn...@cybertrails.com>
wrote:
> <gene...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
[quoted text clipped - 32 lines]
>
> - Show quoted text -

How much faster would the icecaps melt if we were all driving Hummers
than if we were all driving Prius's?
Michael Pardee - 01 Apr 2007 11:10 GMT
> On Mar 31, 2:59 pm, "Michael Pardee" <michaeltn...@cybertrails.com>
> wrote:
>
> How much faster would the icecaps melt if we were all driving Hummers
> than if we were all driving Prius's?

Let's run some numbers. (My apologies to the UK people, who I understand
don't have the same meaning of billion, trillion and quadrillion we do in
the US.) It sounds like you assume Arctic melting is the result of rising
global temperatures, which are in turn the result of rising CO2 levels,
driven by burning fossil fuels. We will see those are all dubious
assumptions, but we'll get out our calculators anyway.

I'm not sure what your question is asking; whether you are picturing
everybody uniformly driving either a Prius or a Hummer, or if all Prius cars
were traded for Hummers. It's unclear how many Hummers of various styles are
in circulation, and I don't see all-time totals in MRV's postings of Prius
sales in the US. Let's go on the high side of either with a million vehicles
to be changed from Prius to Hummer. The Hummer is EPA rated 15 mpg in town,
19 highway. For ease and conservatism, let's use 10 mpg. Let's also assume
each will be driven an average of 20K miles per year, for a total of 2000
gallons per vehicle and 2 billion gallons for the million vehicles per year.
The EPA fuel economy is only about 25% of the Prius EPA rating, so we can
estimate a million Hummers would consume 1.5 billion gallons per year more
than a million Prius.

In the US, we consume about 7.3 trillion barrels of petroleum products per
year(http://tinyurl.com/2ytmrj), about 45% of that is used as gasoline
(http://tinyurl.com/y5g7ed).  At 55 gallons per barrel, that amounts to
about 400 trillion gallons of petroleum and a little short of 200 trillion
gallons of gasoline. By changing a million Prius driven 20K miles per year
in the city to Hummers we would increase gasoline consumption in the US by
about 0.00075%, and increase US oil consumption by about 0.00035%. The world
petroleum consumption is about 1600 trillion gallons per year
(http://tinyurl.com/2roxfx), so the effect on world oil consumption would be
about 0.0001%... right at one part per million.

That's not all the fossil carbon in play. Coal consumption worldwide is
about 6 billion tons per year (http://tinyurl.com/3dhyld), or about 12
trillion pounds. Since petroleum is composed of alkanes, we can say the 6
lbs/gallon approximate weight is carbon and worldwide oil consumption is 10
quadrillion pounds. (Natural gas is similarly minor:
http://tinyurl.com/34pu6w and http://tinyurl.com/2qo673.) Those numbers
don't dent the petroleum numbers but still dwarf the million Hummers by a
factor of 10,000.

There are no proposed solutions that would change the shape of things to
come in atmospheric CO2 levels, only the timeline. Since atmospheric CO2 is
still rising 0.4% per year (http://tinyurl.com/yvuq9n), reducing the
worldwide fossil carbon load by .0001% would reduce the timeline by about 2
1/2 hours per year.

However, we also know the majority of the excess CO2 comes from surface
sources. The "Industrial Effect" of C14 dilution by fossil carbon was
discovered by Hans Suess in 1955 (http://tinyurl.com/z43h9). He found that
the C14 signal was diluted a bit over 2% with respect to 1898 levels. About
that time, the Mauna Loa Observatory had begun monitoring CO2 levels and
found they were 315 ppm, up 13% from 278 ppm (http://tinyurl.com/yvuq9n). 7
ppm of the 37 ppm were fossil in origin (no C14), leaving 80% of the excess
CO2 to be from surface sources. Since then atmospheric thermonuclear testing
has obscured the C14 record (http://tinyurl.com/z43h9) so we don't have
current data.

What is the measured effect of CO2 on climate? There is no usable supporting
data - the methodology is not practical - but there are indications there
may actually be no effect (http://tinyurl.com/2lcc45). The authors "prefer"
that their data shows the model they were using was incorrect, but that is
not science, just wishes.

Is the Earth warming? Good question. In a world dominated by water and ice,
that is probably unknowable. Temperatures are only loosely related to the
question of heat (enthalpy) retention, for the same reason a glass of water
to which ice has been added can gain heat and drop in temperature on a
summer day. Don't even bother talking about land temperatures - that is
entirely the realm of regional effects. Given that two thirds of the world
is covered by water and that water has 5 times the heat capacity of silica
(the most common rock), the oceans would have to be no more than knee deep
for land temperatures to be important.

Is Arctic thawing the result of global warming? There is no reason to
believe so. The regional weather phenomenon known as the Arctic Oscillation
(National Geographic magazine January 2004, or http://tinyurl.com/296l3r) is
well known to be directly responsible. There is no credible evidence to
associate AO with global temperatures; the same theories work equally well
if you substitute "witchcraft" for "global warming." Note that much of the
Antarctic has cooled over the last 30 years (http://tinyurl.com/2d7p8d).

So... in the event that Arctic melting is caused somehow by global warming,
and that the earth is actually warming, and that rising atmospheric CO2 is
the primary cause of that warming, and that fossil fuels are primarily
responsible for the rising CO2... changing a million Prius to Hummers would
speed the melting by 2.5 hours per year.

Mike
geneccc@gmail.com - 01 Apr 2007 16:22 GMT
On Apr 1, 6:10 am, "Michael Pardee" <michaeltn...@cybertrails.com>
wrote:
> <gene...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
[quoted text clipped - 93 lines]
>
> Mike

Mike, Your data was debunked years ago. BTW, are you one of those "The
earth is 6,000 years old" people?
Paul Russell - 01 Apr 2007 19:41 GMT
>> So... in the event that Arctic melting is caused somehow by global warming,
>> and that the earth is actually warming, and that rising atmospheric CO2 is
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> Mike, Your data was debunked years ago. BTW, are you one of those "The
> earth is 6,000 years old" people?

Check the date.

Paul
Michael Pardee - 01 Apr 2007 19:47 GMT
> On Apr 1, 6:10 am, "Michael Pardee" <michaeltn...@cybertrails.com>
> wrote:
>
> Mike, Your data was debunked years ago. BTW, are you one of those "The
> earth is 6,000 years old" people?

Nope - current data, hundreds of hours of research over the last decade or
so. You are just too easily misled. The very basis of science is skepticism.
That makes Galileo, Leewenhoek, Franklin and Michelson such outstanding
examples of what a scientist is. Each fought the prevailing superstitions
that their peers called "science" and demonstrated the world is not what
everybody thought: objects of the same weight fall at the same speed, life
does not spontaneously spring from habitats, lightning isn't "God's
judgement," light doesn't travel in ether. No true scientist ever believes
in anything but natural laws, and he frets over those. Einstein and Planck
each added footnotes to Newton's Laws of Motion, and now nobody has found a
way to make the universe as we know it exist. Two objects could not occupy
the same space until Bose and Einstein realized that at extremely low
temperatures (energy levels) atoms merge (http://tinyurl.com/lhrmh). And the
search goes on, for all who don't say "I already know all that; you can't
teach me anything."

People have asked me what kind of scientist I am (obviously meaning "you
aren't a scientist.") For years I replied "I am not a scientist, I am an
engineer" because I have philosophical problems with science. I became a
devotee of ruthless science when I was 10, and it sealed my fate as a geek.
How many 12 yr olds acknowledge that their heroes are Ben Franklin and Anton
Von Leewenhoek?

In my early 20s science led me into a paradox. I had been looking for a
real-time test for whether I was awake or dreaming. I failed and have been
searching for more than 30 years now, with no more success. This is a
problem: if we can't define a difference, scientifically they are the same
(back to that Bose-Einstein condensation thing!) That led to my
philosophical standing as a skeptical solopsist. I suspect, but am not
convinced, the world is created moment by moment in exactly the same way as
a dream. Yes, I've heard the objections, but they are all based on the
premises that we are awake now and that dreams are incoherent. Neither of
those are necessarily true, and all the arguments that we are awake can be
applied in a dream... I've done them all.

You see the problem. If reality is not solid, as the science of the
situation suggests, science has no meaning. Can you use science in a dream?
But time has worn me down. Now I admit I am a scientist (go with the
illusion, if that it be) and a solopsist. Funny - nobody has yet challenged
me on the conflict.

As for "debunked", let me guess: you still believe CFCs are responsible for
stratospheric ozone holes?

Mike
geneccc@gmail.com - 02 Apr 2007 05:41 GMT
On Apr 1, 2:47 pm, "Michael Pardee" <michaeltn...@cybertrails.com>
wrote:
> <gene...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
[quoted text clipped - 49 lines]
>
> Mike

You've got waaaay too much time on your hands.
Michael Pardee - 02 Apr 2007 13:28 GMT
> You've got waaaay too much time on your hands.

:-)

Same as pretty much everybody - I just got in the research habit when I was
young and it hasn't lost its fascination. I still like looking through the
stacks at the library for the same reason - all sorts of interesting stuff
about things I would have never thought about. The 600s are still my
favorites, but the 900s have some amazing stuff about the crazy world we
live in.

Mike
geneccc@gmail.com - 01 Apr 2007 16:42 GMT
On Apr 1, 6:10 am, "Michael Pardee" <michaeltn...@cybertrails.com>
wrote:
> <gene...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
[quoted text clipped - 93 lines]
>
> Mike

Starvation added to the list...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070401/sc_nm/globalwarming_dc_1
Michael Pardee - 01 Apr 2007 19:52 GMT
> On Apr 1, 6:10 am, "Michael Pardee" <michaeltn...@cybertrails.com>
> wrote:
[quoted text clipped - 138 lines]
>
> http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070401/sc_nm/globalwarming_dc_1

Once you believe in witchcraft, witches can do anything. Ditto with "global
warming." Ever wonder why a career politician is the leading proponent of
what is a scientific question, and he never ever once raises any open
issues? That isn't science, partner.
richard schumacher - 01 Apr 2007 21:23 GMT
For discussion by scientists of the facts of global warming see
http://realclimate.org
Michael Pardee - 01 Apr 2007 21:49 GMT
> For discussion by scientists of the facts of global warming see
> http://realclimate.org

Still being wary that the overwhelming majority of the people identified as
"scientists" are not necessarily so. The term has been applied to anybody
news services want to lend credibility to, including engineers, technicians,
bureaucrats and random activists who may or may not employ scientific
principles. A recent Yahoo! news headline had "scientists" moving a
Peregrine Falcon nest. Maybe they were doing it as an experiment and they
were going to observe the results, but that's not what the article said.

My big complaint about the IPCC is that everybody there has a huge vested
interest in finding alarming climate change. If they can stir us up their
careers take off and they have job security. If they can't, they are
worthless to the UN. "All that money and you didn't find anything?"
Decisions, decisions....
Michelle Steiner - 01 Apr 2007 23:47 GMT
> My big complaint about the IPCC is that everybody there has a huge
> vested interest in finding alarming climate change. If they can stir
> us up their careers take off and they have job security.

And those denying global warming have an even bigger vested interest in
there being no climate change.  Their vested interest makes any interest
by the IPPC look positively miniscule.

But the thing is that those scientists don't have any such interest;
it's not as if that's the only thing they can do.

But the companies that deride global warming could lose billions of
dollars if they had to change their business practices to help fight
global warming.

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Michael Pardee - 02 Apr 2007 01:07 GMT
>> My big complaint about the IPCC is that everybody there has a huge
>> vested interest in finding alarming climate change. If they can stir
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> dollars if they had to change their business practices to help fight
> global warming.

I disagree about the UN's work environment. Richard Butler related in his
book "The Greatest Threat" how heavily he was pressured by Kofi Annan to
certify Iraq as being in compliance, even as his UNSCOM team was being
denied entrance to sites at gunpoint. The UN has some very good programs,
notably WHO and UNICEF, but the UN is at heart a political organization and
they expect results... "correct" results. One man's opinion.

I do agree that there is a huge problem with bringing the "global warming"
question to open and honest discussion. I see the political origin of the
theory as being central to that. In any event, the polarization has greatly
hampered genuine scientific inquiry. In all discussions the question is not
whether there is another piece of the puzzle, but whether the presenter is
already a fanatical convert or is a die-hard disbeliever.

So far, there have been no proposals that would affect the course of CO2
increases. As one of our mutual friends in another forum pointed out, that
is an issue in itself and is well documented. The biochemical effects of
rising CO2 could be a big problem. Even the most radical current proposals
for controlling fossil emissions does not change the course of CO2 rise,
only the rate... and that only marginally. I would support well crafted
population controls on livestock, particularly since our only other piece of
hard data points to surface sources as being the major contributor to CO2
increases, and the CO2 rise more closely parallels the rise of high density
ranching than it does the use of petroleum for fuel. It may not be
politically empowering, but it holds promise of actually accomplishing
something rather than pretending to.

Mike
Michelle Steiner - 02 Apr 2007 03:25 GMT
> I do agree that there is a huge problem with bringing the "global
> warming" question to open and honest discussion. I see the political
> origin of the theory as being central to that.

I see the political/economic opposition as being central to that.  I do
not see anything political about the observations, nor about the theory
that explains those observations.

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Michael Pardee - 02 Apr 2007 04:26 GMT
>> I do agree that there is a huge problem with bringing the "global
>> warming" question to open and honest discussion. I see the political
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> not see anything political about the observations, nor about the theory
> that explains those observations.

It is certainly striking that acceptance and opposition are each drawn so
strongly along political lines. I'm politically conservative - don't look so
surprised ;-) - but my objections are scientific. More worrisome, theories
that fall along political lines are more likely to be political than
scientific, and that is rarely benign. I recall the Nazis and their racial
theories.

I place the most blame on news services. Too many people get their
information from the same sources that brought us the O.J. Simpson trial and
that try to pass off American Idol and interviews with random people as
news. To those news organizations, the global warming controversy is a story
and as such only one side is presented. No point in scaring subscribers with
uncertainty!

I brought up CFCs and ozone depletion earlier. The best science was done by
a joint NASA/NOAA team in 1997. In situ measurements with laser gas
chromatagraph packages were far better than the crude sampling methods of
previous measurements. The mission goal was identified in the name:
Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region In Summer (POLARIS). The
finding: that reactive nitrogen oxides formed in extended hours of sunlight
were responsible for seasonal ozone depletion, and that halogens from all
sources were responsible for only 15% of the peak depletion
(http://tinyurl.com/2lkn42). This mission was undertaken 10 years after we
signed the Montreal Protocol, another pointless exercise in control of
industry worldwide by the UN - whether that was their goal or not. I have no
estimate of how much the Montreal Protocol has cost the US in forcing the
abandonment of R-12 and retooling for R-134a. Did you hear of this
breakthrough in the ozone controversy? I doubt it; no news service picked it
up. I came across it after months of research on-line. We were hoaxed blind,
and it was kept quiet. Political careers hinged on the old story, and today
most people still believe CFC ozone depletion is "settled science."

Mike
Michelle Steiner - 02 Apr 2007 05:29 GMT
> It is certainly striking that acceptance and opposition are each
> drawn so strongly along political lines.

Opposition is drawn along political and economic lines; that makes
acceptance appear to be along political lines.  The political opposition
is because of the economic opposition.

> More worrisome, theories that fall along political lines are more
> likely to be political than scientific, and that is rarely benign. I
> recall the Nazis and their racial theories.

Yeah, theories attempting to debunk global warming, theories attempting
to debunk the big bang, and theories attempting to debunk evolution
certainly fall into that category.  Theories attempting to explain
global warming do not fall into that category.

> The finding: that reactive nitrogen oxides formed in extended hours
> of sunlight were responsible for seasonal ozone depletion, and that
> halogens from all sources were responsible for only 15% of the peak
> depletion (http://tinyurl.com/2lkn42).

That's all you got from a 59-page highly technical report?  Where
exactly in that report does it say that?

Also, do you consider that 15% to be insignificant?

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Michael Pardee - 02 Apr 2007 13:59 GMT
> Opposition is drawn along political and economic lines; that makes
> acceptance appear to be along political lines.  The political opposition
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
> certainly fall into that category.  Theories attempting to explain
> global warming do not fall into that category.

Oh - you mean like Holocaust deniers. The difference, as I see it, is that
the Holocaust was an event rather than a theory. As one man put it, "Of all
those who were tried for their part in the Holocaust, none used the defense
that it never happened." The problem is that global warming, the big bang
and evolution are theories. Arguments on both sides (and any other views
pertinent to that) are equally valid and no conclusion can be drawn...
probably ever. That would defeat the point of science. Personally, I have
considerable reservation about the Big Bang - time dilation in those
overwhelming densities would certainly change things from the way it is
often presented and might even completely change the nature of just what
happened. It doesn't help that we still don't have the math to allow the
universe as we know it to even exist. Hey - we're down to needing 10
dimensions instead of 22, as long as we allow non-real number systems! I
also have trouble at the fringes of evolution; as others point out,
evolution begins when cells exist. Viruses evolve, but they require host
cells - that chicken and egg thing.

>> The finding: that reactive nitrogen oxides formed in extended hours
>> of sunlight were responsible for seasonal ozone depletion, and that
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> That's all you got from a 59-page highly technical report?  Where
> exactly in that report does it say that?

Way down in Table 1, on page 53. The first two entries are for depleted
flights, while the third is for a flight of low depletion (second and third
columns). You can see the effect of NOx is the driving force in the
depletion, with HOx being more important as a background factor.

> Also, do you consider that 15% to be insignificant?

Yes - we would never have noticed the difference. Note also this is a
measurement of total reactive halogen, including volcanic sources. Contrary
to popularly spread reports, vulcanism does inject material directly into
the stratosphere. Ordinary activity rarely makes it through the tropopause,
but explosive vertical eruptions sure do. When Pinatubo erupted (second
picture http://tinyurl.com/ywqmu5) it injected so much particulate sulfates
into the stratosphere it dominated ozone depletion worldwide for 20 months
(link broken).

The CFC theory depended on the seriously contaminated measurements that
launched the panic. (See 'The Ozone Crisis' by Sharon Roan, foreword by Al
Gore. When she describes the original measurements she mentions the grad
student had to tell everybody in the family to stop using aerosols because
they were interfering with his readings... he was reading ambient air.)
Another red flag was that (as Roan reported) all the professors were amazed
at first but won over by the data. I was amazed, too; that would have to
mean the law of gravity was inoperative! How CFCs, which are 2.5 to 5.5
times the density of air, would cross the 8 miles of non-convective
tropopause beggars the imagination.

Mike
dlzc - 02 Apr 2007 15:44 GMT
Dear Michael Pardee:

On Apr 2, 5:59 am, "Michael Pardee" <michaeltn...@cybertrails.com>
wrote:
> "Michelle Steiner" <miche...@michelle.org> wrote in message
...
> >> The finding: that reactive nitrogen oxides formed in
> >> extended hours of sunlight were responsible for
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> the effect of NOx is the driving force in the depletion,
> with HOx being more important as a background factor.

The presence of NOx (and reduction in rate of O3 production) can be
triggered by H2O in the gas stream.  I don't see that this report paid
any attention to this.

Activated NOx compounds in the presence of visible light are an
important contributor to the production of ozone... whether this is in
the lower atmosphere or the tropopause.  Water both deactivates the
NOx into more stable forms, and water serves as a catalyst to the
decay of ozone (via H2O2).

And what did your rant have to do with a Prius?

David A. Smith
Michael Pardee - 03 Apr 2007 00:02 GMT
> And what did your rant have to do with a Prius?
>
> David A. Smith

You're quite right - this got OT way back when. Time to put it to bed, and
my apologies for getting caught up.

Mike
Michelle Steiner - 02 Apr 2007 16:37 GMT
> The problem is that global warming, the big bang and evolution are
> theories.

The big bang is a theory.  Global warming and evolution are observed
facts; there are theories that try to explain how the facts happened.  
This is confusing to some people because the fact and the theory have
the same name.

> Arguments on both sides (and any other views pertinent to that) are
> equally valid and no conclusion can be drawn... probably ever.

No, they are not equally valid, and there are more than two sides to the
explanation of human life on Earth.  Evolution is one side, the stories
in Genesis comprise another, and each religion that addresses the
subject is yet another.  But all these religious explanations have one
thing in common:  they declare by fiat with absolutely no way to examine
anything.  The evolutionary explanation is based on observed facts, and
gets modified as necessary as more facts are discovered.

> Also, do you consider that 15% to be insignificant?
> >
> Yes - we would never have noticed the difference.

Not noticed what difference?  That 15% could be just enough to tip
something over the edge.

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geneccc@gmail.com - 02 Apr 2007 05:44 GMT
On Apr 1, 11:26 pm, "Michael Pardee" <michaeltn...@cybertrails.com>
wrote:

> > In article <zoSdnYfKzqfw1I3bnZ2dnUVZ_rukn...@sedona.net>,
>
[quoted text clipped - 39 lines]
>
> Mike

You keep citing this "tinyurl" source. It looks kind of shaky to me.
Michelle Steiner - 02 Apr 2007 05:45 GMT
> You keep citing this "tinyurl" source. It looks kind of shaky to me.

It's an official NASA site.

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Michael Pardee - 03 Apr 2007 00:08 GMT
> You keep citing this "tinyurl" source. It looks kind of shaky to me.

TinyURL.com is a way to reduce the length of URLs so they don't break in
emails and posts. As you point out, the shortened (indexed, I assume) URLs
also don't give any clue where they point unless the link is opened, which
is always a risk unless the user trusts the source.

As David Smith points out, I have taken this awfully far afield. My
apologies to the group.

Mike
Jim Smith - 02 Apr 2007 01:23 GMT
Can you tell me what caused the last Ice Age?  Or for that matter, the
warming trend that followed?
Of course there is a global warming effect taking place today, but how can
you so sure that mankind is the cause?

What will the human race say about the flipping of the magnetic field of the
Earth?  What can we say caused this in the past or what will cause it in the
future?

>> My big complaint about the IPCC is that everybody there has a huge
>> vested interest in finding alarming climate change. If they can stir
[quoted text clipped - 10 lines]
> dollars if they had to change their business practices to help fight
> global warming.
Michelle Steiner - 02 Apr 2007 03:22 GMT
> Can you tell me what caused the last Ice Age?  Or for that matter,
> the warming trend that followed?

Why do you ask irrelevant questions?  To use an analogy, forest fires
have been caused by natural causes (lightning, for example), but there
have been forest fires caused by humans as well.  Just because there
have been cycles of warming and cooling not caused by humans doesn't
mean that humans aren't exacerbating things.

An AC current can be based on zero volts, and range between 60 and -60
(again, to use an analogy), but it can also be based on a DC voltage and
range between 120 and zero, or even between 180 and 160.

Same thing with global warming; the warm cycles get hotter and the cold
cycles don't get as cold.

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Jim Smith - 02 Apr 2007 13:08 GMT
>> Can you tell me what caused the last Ice Age?  Or for that matter,
>> the warming trend that followed?
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
> Same thing with global warming; the warm cycles get hotter and the cold
> cycles don't get as cold.

DING, DING, DING.....  a natural cycle.
geneccc@gmail.com - 02 Apr 2007 14:59 GMT
> > In article <g8ydnWCxRpGV0I3bnZ2dnUVZ_qqrn...@comcast.com>,
>
[quoted text clipped - 17 lines]
>
> - Show quoted text -

and the earth is only 6,000 years old.
Michelle Steiner - 02 Apr 2007 16:38 GMT
> > Same thing with global warming; the warm cycles get hotter and the
> > cold cycles don't get as cold.
>
> DING, DING, DING.....  a natural cycle.

Not if the center line keeps moving up.

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geneccc@gmail.com - 03 Apr 2007 04:46 GMT
On Apr 1, 2:52 pm, "Michael Pardee" <michaeltn...@cybertrails.com>
wrote:
> <gene...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
[quoted text clipped - 149 lines]
>
> - Show quoted text -

It took years before the common man could be convinced that the earth
wasn't situated on the back of a gigantic turtle. Same thing with
trying to convince these bible thumpers and Bush Lovers that global
warming is happening. They'll come around, they just take longer than
the rest of us.
Michael Pardee - 04 Apr 2007 05:39 GMT
> It took years before the common man could be convinced that the earth
> wasn't situated on the back of a gigantic turtle. Same thing with
> trying to convince these bible thumpers and Bush Lovers that global
> warming is happening. They'll come around, they just take longer than
> the rest of us.

(Woman from audience) "The world isn't balanced on the back of Atlas, it is
on the back of a turtle."
(Lecturer) "Well, madam, what does that turtle stand on?"
"On the back of another turtle, of course."
"Well, what does *that* turtle stand on?"
"Oh, no, you can't trick me! It's turtles all the way down!"
(From an 'Embedded Systems Programming' magazine)

Superstition is identically the rush to believe and the rush to disbelieve
(since it is all in how the question is posed.) I only ask that you not rush
to judgement without seeking your own answers, rather than to accept what
you are spoon fed.

Back on topic... Michelle and I go back a few years. We have very different
and strongly held opinions. She is one of two very intelligent "sparring
partners" I have who keep me on my toes. I apologize again for exchanging
on-list, as the subject truly was off topic. She and I are here because
there is one subject on which we actually agree: that the Prius is a
magnificent car. There are those who subscribe to the superstitions about
it, who believe it is made with half a ton of lead that will find its way to
landfills, that it doesn't get nearly as good mileage as its owners claim,
that it needs to be plugged in and lacks power and is flimsy and cheaply
built. Fortunately, they don't matter. The Prius is one of the biggest
automotive success stories of our time and the naysayers don't have to buy
hybrids. Their loss, I say.

Mike
Bob Wilson - 04 Apr 2007 14:44 GMT
> . . . There are those who subscribe to the superstitions about
> it, who believe it is made with half a ton of lead that will find its way to
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
> automotive success stories of our time and the naysayers don't have to buy
> hybrids. Their loss, I say.

I've enjoyed sending those folks over to forums that are sympathetic to
such nonsense. I figure that is the best punishment.

Bob Wilson
 
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