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Car Forum / Toyota / Toyota Cars / February 2008Gasoline could drop 50 cents/gallon by spring
<http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN0628259020080206?feedTy pe=RSS&feedName=domesticNews&rpc=22&sp=true> Print | Close this window Gasoline could drop 50 cents/gallon by spring Wed Feb 6, 2008 2:14pm EST By Timothy Gardner NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. drivers could enjoy a drop of up to 50 cents per gallon in gasoline prices by this spring as high fuel prices and the threat of a recession force them to conserve, experts said on Wednesday. U.S. gasoline supplies hit a near-14-year high of 227.5 million barrels last week, helped by falling demand for the fuel, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. "Gasoline stocks are continuing to increase and it implies that people are probably cutting down on gasoline consumption -- a result of the weakening economy," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago. U.S. gasoline demand over the last four weeks only averaged about 1 percent more than the same period last year, the EIA said. Demand growth for the fuel has typically averaged about 1.5 to 2 percent a year and has been one of the major drivers of global oil markets. "Something dramatic is occurring with consumer driving habits," Geoff Sundstrom, a spokesman for AAA motor club, said in a telephone interview. "These numbers, if sustained over next couple of weeks, should set the stage for a reversal of price forecasts." He said U.S. gasoline prices in the spring could fall 50 cents a gallon from Wednesday's $2.98. Spring gasoline prices in the world's largest energy consumer set the stage for fuel prices during the summer months when vacationers drive fuel demand to annual peaks. FORECASTS In December, when oil prices were trading closer to a record $100 a barrel, compared with Wednesday's level of $87 a barrel, AAA predicted spring gasoline prices could hit a new record high above $3.50 per gallon, with fuel in some regions of the country hitting above $4.00. The EIA had forecast similar spring gasoline prices. On Wednesday, EIA analyst Doug MacIntyre warned that unexpected maintenance or economic run cuts at oil refineries could spike gasoline prices at any time, especially since U.S. refineries last week were only running at 84.3 percent of capacity. Even so, he said he "certainly" expects that his agency next month will publish lower spring gasoline price forecasts. Sundstrom said drivers are buying less gasoline because they feel the pinch from high fuel prices that have clung to near $3.00 a gallon and fear a recession amid the housing downturn. "High gasoline prices by themselves have never altered consumer driving habits," he said. "Only when combined with some other factor have they fallen. In this case, it's anxiety about a recession." He said gasoline demand may have fallen because businesses are making fewer sales calls and short haul deliveries, while consumers may have curtailed some shopping trips. The record average price for gasoline, nearly $3.23 a gallon, was hit on May 24 last year, according to AAA.  Signature"We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good." Hillary Clinton need I say more This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a gallon by next summer. Who to believe? Mister B > This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, > speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a gallon by > next summer. Who to believe? Mister B They'll lower the price in the spring, hoping to crank up demand. Then, they'll raise it again around mid-June when people want to travel for summer vacations. The reason for the price hike will be the usual bullshit, like "The Middle East is a dangerous place", or "There might be a hurricane next month". >> This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, >> speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a gallon by [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > "The Middle East is a dangerous place", or "There might be a hurricane next > month". I don't think they will lower gasoline prices to increase demand. They will sell it for as much as they can get. Last May, gas prices were quite high, but people continued to buy gas all summer. Jeff >>> This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, >>> speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a gallon by [quoted text clipped - 13 lines] > > Jeff The article is too simplistic anyway. The price of oil is largely determined by speculation. That should be illegal for a product so important to the economy. Other industries manage to hedge against price swings without exposing themselves to a market full of recreational traders. It's time for the oil companies to do the same thing. >>>> This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, >>>> speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a gallon by [quoted text clipped - 16 lines] > by speculation. That should be illegal for a product so important to the > economy. Why? How else do expect the cost to be determined? Did we go through this when there was a democrat in the White House? He liked to wear sweaters, but, the price controls he put in place only lead to gasoline shortages. What is more important than fuel for our houses and cars? Fuel for our bodies. And this stuff is traded on commodities markets, too. The only way that the US can decrease the influence of speculation on oil costs has on our economy is to decrease the use of oil. Oil is determined by a global economy, not just the US economy. Stopping oil commodities trading in the US won't change speculation one bit, except that it won't be in NY. Buying futures also helps airlines and other big users of oil predict their future costs. And intelligent buying helps SouthWest to keep their costs down, too. > Other industries manage to hedge against price swings without > exposing themselves to a market full of recreational traders. It's time for > the oil companies to do the same thing. They're not recreational traders. They're traders who make a living at it. Please show us that these recreational traders have a great influence in the price of oil. Or that closing this market in the US will have any great influence on the price of oil. Jeff >>>>> This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, >>>>> speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a gallon [quoted text clipped - 45 lines] > > Jeff I'll tweeze this apart in more detail later. But for now, plenty of industries negotiate directly with their raw material suppliers, with no need for any sort of exchange in the supply chain. These industries are no less efficient than the oil business, and they manage to hedge without any problem at all. These industries are often vulnerable to factors totally beyond human control, and yet, they manage just fine. Do you agree with some or all of this? If not, why not? Governments (federal & state) have mandates that add to the cost: Additives and seasonal reformulations, and "gasp" ethanol as part of the mix. You could very well boost miles per gallon by removing ethanol and using pure gas. Ironically, it is the ethanol industry that gets public subsidies, NOT the oil companies. Ethanol, as presently funded and produced for use as motor vehicle fuel, is a total boondoggle ... an absolute failure in virtually every repect. But, if you have any brain at all ... you should already know that. Mister B > Governments (federal & state) have mandates that add to the cost: > Additives and seasonal reformulations, and "gasp" ethanol as part of the [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > But, if you have any brain at all ... you should already know that. > Mister B Probably all true, but not relevant to the subject of speculative exchanges in the oil supply chain. >> Governments (federal & state) have mandates that add to the cost: >> Additives and seasonal reformulations, and "gasp" ethanol as part of the [quoted text clipped - 9 lines] > Probably all true, but not relevant to the subject of speculative exchanges > in the oil supply chain. Gee, do you think that is why it is a different thread? >>> Governments (federal & state) have mandates that add to the cost: >>> Additives and seasonal reformulations, and "gasp" ethanol as part of the [quoted text clipped - 11 lines] > > Gee, do you think that is why it is a different thread? In the visual hierarchy of my news reader, it shows as being in the same thread. Since Mister Bear erased any indication of who he was replying to, I see no proof it it being in a different thread. The fact that he changed the subject line really doesn't matter as much as where the message landed. > Governments (federal & state) have mandates that add to the cost: > Additives and seasonal reformulations, At least 20 different formulas. Insane. > and "gasp" ethanol as part of the > mix. You could very well boost miles per gallon by removing ethanol and > using pure gas. Ironically, it is the ethanol industry that gets public > subsidies, NOT the oil companies. Not ironic - totally nuts. > Ethanol, as presently funded and produced for use as motor vehicle fuel, > is a total boondoggle ... an absolute failure in virtually every repect. Yep. A poor fuel and a squeeze on the sweetener market. > But, if you have any brain at all ... you should already know that. Don't count on that in a.a.toyota > Governments (federal & state) have mandates that add to the cost: > Additives and seasonal reformulations, and "gasp" ethanol as part of the > mix. You could very well boost miles per gallon by removing ethanol and > using pure gas. Ironically, it is the ethanol industry that gets public > subsidies, NOT the oil companies. Those additives also keep the air clean. > Ethanol, as presently funded and produced for use as motor vehicle fuel, > is a total boondoggle ... an absolute failure in virtually every repect. > But, if you have any brain at all ... you should already know that. > Mister B >>>>>> This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, >>>>>> speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a gallon [quoted text clipped - 52 lines] > > Do you agree with some or all of this? If not, why not? The exchange does not prevent people from dealing directly with the oil suppliers without going through the exchange. Many of the major industries do have exchanges, like those for coppoer and other metals. Jeff >>>>>>> This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, >>>>>>> speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a [quoted text clipped - 59 lines] > > Jeff You and I will never be able to tell whether Exxon deals directly with suppliers, or buys through exchanges. We *do* know that Exxon and others use the speculators' excuses to jack up the price at the pump, though. In other words, they could be buying direct at $85 per barrel, but pointing to the nonsensical news and saying "But look - oil's at $93. That's what we're paying." Back to other industries: The vast majority of products you buy are priced based purely on negotiation. If you claim to disagree, you are lying, or very badly informed. Let's use an example: The cans and labels Del Monte buys. Please show me what exchange they're traded on. Empty bottles purchased by Seagram: Show me the exchange. Yellow legal pads produced for Staples: Show me the exchange. >>>>>>>> This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, >>>>>>>> speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a [quoted text clipped - 64 lines] > nonsensical news and saying "But look - oil's at $93. That's what we're > paying." Exxon doesn't claim they're paying a particular value. It's a market system. The market determines the price. > Back to other industries: The vast majority of products you buy are priced > based purely on negotiation. If you claim to disagree, you are lying, or > very badly informed. And the price that they pay is based on the market price. If green peppers are going for $0.50, the farmer is not going to get the grocery store or the restaurant to pay $2.00. > Let's use an example: The cans and labels Del Monte buys. Please show me > what exchange they're traded on. > > Empty bottles purchased by Seagram: Show me the exchange. > > Yellow legal pads produced for Staples: Show me the exchange. You keep claiming that the exchange system is responsible for the high price of gasoline. Prove it. Until them, I am not wasting my electrons. Jeff >> You and I will never be able to tell whether Exxon deals directly with >> suppliers, or buys through exchanges. We *do* know that Exxon and others [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] > Exxon doesn't claim they're paying a particular value. It's a market > system. The market determines the price. What do you do for a living? We need to discuss this in a way directly related to YOUR business, or we will get nowhere. >> Back to other industries: The vast majority of products you buy are >> priced based purely on negotiation. If you claim to disagree, you are [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > are going for $0.50, the farmer is not going to get the grocery store or > the restaurant to pay $2.00. That's correct, but there is no speculative gambling casino in between the farmer and the supermarket, except for a wholesaler, although that's not the case with the largest supermarkets which buy direct much of the time. >> Let's use an example: The cans and labels Del Monte buys. Please show me >> what exchange they're traded on. [quoted text clipped - 9 lines] > > Jeff I'll give you examples of how the casino affects prices. But first, I need for you to show me the exchanges which f.ck with the price of cans, labels, empty bottles and legal pads. >> This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, >> speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a gallon by [quoted text clipped - 5 lines] >"The Middle East is a dangerous place", or "There might be a hurricane next >month". No, all they have to do to start a price-raising panic is have a refinery worker go take a Smoke Break, and drop his lit Ronson a bit too close to a cracking tower with some loose vapors floating around, and they make sure to have lovely footage of the "horrible refinery fire that will interrupt operations for a week" on the Six O'Clock News. And I can almost GUARANTEE we'll get one, maybe two refinery fires that "interrupt gasoline production" in Southern California this spring or summer, you can almost set your watch by them. And then they say "We can't bring in refined gasoline from other regions, because it won't meet our special emissions blends..." Even when the Feds say they'll suspend the rules for a month to allow it. The Refiners play us for suckers, and we fall for it. Hook, Line, Sinker, fighting chair, and sometimes the entire stern of the boat. "We don't have enough refining capacity to meet demand!" So BUILD SOME MORE CAPACITY, fools!! If you can make more refined products than the competition, you get to sell more. But true competition would depress prices slightly (even considering the higher volume means higher overall profits) and we can't have that... --<< Bruce >>-- >>> This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, >>> speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a gallon by [quoted text clipped - 33 lines] > > --<< Bruce >>-- We'll be sure to have problems at the aging Amoco refinery in Whiting Indiana, or the Citgo refinery in the Chicago area, too. Same purpose, to keep Chicago gas prices above the magical 3 dollar figure. They've been wanting it since Katrina. Now they've got it. But in getting it, they've destroyed the worth of the American dollar abroad. The having is never so pleasing a thing as the wanting. Charles the Curmudgeon. >>>> This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, >>>> speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a gallon [quoted text clipped - 43 lines] > > Charles the Curmudgeon. I don't know what's going on, but gas has jumped a dime here in the Chicago area. What happened to our 50 cents? Charles the Curmudgeon >>> This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, >>> speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a gallon by [quoted text clipped - 33 lines] > > --<< Bruce >>-- You're weirder than me. I respect that! They don't need to really set anything on fire. All they need to do is "release footage" created for them by whoever helped out in movies like "Die Hard". :-) > This is totally opposite a report that was out just a few days ago, > speculating that regular grade gas will average around $3.50 a gallon by > next summer. Who to believe? Mister B If people could perfectly predict the future, people would make a fortune on the stock market. That rarely happens. In the middle east, there have been some issues with internet service. Perhaps there will be other types of attacks in the middle east or political problems in another country that exports oil. Jeff "on behalf of the common good" - Hillary Clinton. Talk like that should scare the bejeebers out of everyone. It sounds more like a quote from Hugo Chavez, the tin-horn dictator of Venezuela. Or maybe Fidel Castro. Bottled water costs more than gasoline. Why don't the "do gooder" politicians go after the "big water" companies? Or how about questioning why college tuition costs outstrip just about everything in terms of cost/inflation? Where's the outrage? Mister B > "on behalf of the common good" - Hillary Clinton. How do you think roads are built and plowed, sewers are dug, public schools are funded, people on Social Security get their money and health care, the military is funded, and parks are maintained? Hint: It is not a donation by Bill Gates. > Talk like that should scare the bejeebers out of everyone. It sounds > more like a quote from Hugo Chavez, the tin-horn dictator of Venezuela. > Or maybe Fidel Castro. > > Bottled water costs more than gasoline. Why don't the "do gooder" > politicians go after the "big water" companies? No one is forcing people to buy bottled water. In fact, I wish people would stop buying bottled water. It takes resources to bottle the water and transport the water. > Or how about > questioning why college tuition costs outstrip just about everything in > terms of cost/inflation? Where's the outrage? Mister B This is one of the many issues that have been brought up in the Presidential campaigns. Jeff >> "on behalf of the common good" - Hillary Clinton. > [quoted text clipped - 11 lines] > > No one is forcing people to buy bottled water. Now someone's going to say that you don't *have* to buy gasoline, either. Ready? Hillary Clinton's comments, if true, absolutely should scare you. This kind of big brother threat is not like taxing for schools, sewers and schools. It's about arrogant abuse of government power, erosion of fundamental rights and confiscation of private property. We don't need this kind of bullying and threatening. If its the petro companies today, who's next? This is a page right from Hugo Chavez socialist playbook. Mister B > Hillary Clinton's comments, if true, absolutely should scare you. This > kind of big brother threat is not like taxing for schools, sewers and [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > today, who's next? This is a page right from Hugo Chavez socialist > playbook. Mister B A little quote, totally out of context? What should scare us is that people find these quotes informative. > Hillary Clinton's comments, if true, absolutely should scare you. This > kind of big brother threat is not like taxing for schools, sewers and [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > today, who's next? This is a page right from Hugo Chavez socialist > playbook. Mister B Hillary has been like this since she was co-governor of Arkansas. She wanted mandatory government-run pre-school even back then. (Check her platform, it's still there.) Why? Indoctrination, of course, so little kiddies will grow up being 'politically correct'. She has no use for the 'little people' except as they vote for her. She is an extreme elitist. How I explain her to my friends, is that she's basically Joe Stalin in drag. If you think Nixon had an 'Enemies List', just let Hillary take over. There will be many strange deaths just like Vince Foster's supposed 'suicide' and MacDougal's unexplained heart attack, and Ron Brown's crashing into a mountain in a plane that, for some reason, didn't have a black box. A vote for Hillary is a vote for Bill. And a vote to repeal the Constitution. Charles the Curmudgeon >> "on behalf of the common good" - Hillary Clinton. > > How do you think roads are built and plowed, sewers are dug, public > schools are funded, people on Social Security get their money and health > care, the military is funded, and parks are maintained? Hint: It is not > a donation by Bill Gates. Maybe if it WERE a donation by Bill Gates, bridges wouldn't be falling down, water wouldn't be contaminated, schools would produce literate students, Socialist Insecurity wouldn't be necessary, the military would be protecting the US instead of policing 130 countries, and parks would be kept clean. >> Talk like that should scare the bejeebers out of everyone. It sounds >> more like a quote from Hugo Chavez, the tin-horn dictator of Venezuela. [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > > No one is forcing people to buy bottled water. Nor gasoline. >> Or how about >> questioning why college tuition costs outstrip just about everything in >> terms of cost/inflation? Where's the outrage? Mister B > > This is one of the many issues that have been brought up in the > Presidential campaigns. But most of the candidates have the wrong answers. >>> "on behalf of the common good" - Hillary Clinton. >> [quoted text clipped - 20 lines] > > Nor gasoline. Really? Much of the country is sadly lacking in mass transportation. If a working person has exhausted all the possibilities for alternatives to commuting with a car, how does that person have a choice with regard to buying gasoline? >>> "on behalf of the common good" - Hillary Clinton. >> How do you think roads are built and plowed, sewers are dug, public [quoted text clipped - 7 lines] > protecting the US instead of policing 130 countries, and parks would be > kept clean. You might want to check out Gates's foundation and the things that they support. You might also want to check out the market value of Microsoft and compare it to the cost that our infrastructure requires. You will find that Gates already supports education and that there isn't enough money there to repair all the bridges that need repair. >>> Talk like that should scare the bejeebers out of everyone. It sounds >>> more like a quote from Hugo Chavez, the tin-horn dictator of Venezuela. [quoted text clipped - 13 lines] > > But most of the candidates have the wrong answers. Please tell us what answers they have brought up and why they are wrong. Jeff In message news:i8tqj.19453$hF2.10770@trnddc02, Jeff is alleged to have said: >>>> Or how about >>>> questioning why college tuition costs outstrip just about everything [quoted text clipped - 6 lines] > Please tell us what answers they have brought up and why they are > wrong. More subsidies. When you subsidize something, demand is artificially inflated leading to significant price increases, which in turn lead to more demands for even more subsidies. Post-secondary education costs only began to outstrip wage and price averages once government programs ramped up significantly. The well-intentioned G.I. Bill started the trend - the University of Michigan, for example, went from 10,000 students before the war to 30,000 in 1948. Think tuition went up? Yep. So then people not covered by the GI Bill started whining about high costs, leading to more and more government spending, with fewer and fewer restrictions (i.e. more unqualified students going to college leading to more remedial classes), and the cycle continues today. > In message news:i8tqj.19453$hF2.10770@trnddc02, Jeff is alleged to have > said: [quoted text clipped - 21 lines] > unqualified students going to college leading to more remedial classes), > and the cycle continues today. And what do universities and colleges do with all this money? Do most of them have huge profits and endowments? Certainly, some of them do (Harvard's endowment is about 10x its annual operating budget). Most universities and colleges don't have huge endowments. They spend lots of money on improving facilities, adding technology like wireless services, maintaining buildings, building new buildings, as well as direct education costs, like salaries for professors. Please show that the costs are unreasonable given the level of services given to students. Jeff In message news:NYvqj.19499$hF2.4173@trnddc02, Jeff is alleged to have said: >> In message news:i8tqj.19453$hF2.10770@trnddc02, Jeff is alleged to >> have said: [quoted text clipped - 24 lines] > > And what do universities and colleges do with all this money? Build new sports arenas every few years. Overpay fatcat administrators. Build buildings that don't teach. Hire too many administrators. Admit too many students. Offer too many classes (not just the wasteful remedial ones). > Please show that the costs are unreasonable given the level of services > given to students. Please show that the level of services given to students has not declined despite this massive inflow of cash. In message news:NYvqj.19499$hF2.4173@trnddc02, Jeff is alleged to have said: >> In message news:i8tqj.19453$hF2.10770@trnddc02, Jeff is alleged to >> have said: [quoted text clipped - 24 lines] > > And what do universities and colleges do with all this money? So you admit that "college tuition costs outstrip just about everything in terms of cost/inflation", which was the point of the original post. Game over. You lose. I would say I use 32 gallons in my Yaris, a month... Thats 16 bucks in savings for a month or two.. WOO HOO.. I am rich... Honestly, I don't care about gas prices.. let them rise and fall with demand >I would say I use 32 gallons in my Yaris, a month... > > Thats 16 bucks in savings for a month or two.. WOO HOO.. I am rich... > > Honestly, I don't care about gas prices.. let them rise and fall with > demand What do you do for a living? >>I would say I use 32 gallons in my Yaris, a month... >> [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > > What do you do for a living? Does not matter. Oil is not a finite source. The more you let the market worry about it, the faster we will find alternatives and the lesser we will use our resources when we do not have to. >>>I would say I use 32 gallons in my Yaris, a month... >>> [quoted text clipped - 8 lines] > worry about it, the faster we will find alternatives and the lesser we > will use our resources when we do not have to. In another thread, you said "I served in Iraq. I was afraid of getting my a.s shot off." Why are you also afraid to provide a simple piece of information that would add another level of understanding to this discussion? I can see being afraid of bullets & bombs, but not words. If you say "I'm a mechanic", do you think that will reveal your work & home addresses, and where your kids go to school? > If you say "I'm a mechanic", do you think that will reveal your work & home > addresses, and where your kids go to school? It's not very insightful to reveal your true address details over a non-secured medium such as commercial web sites or usenet. Https sites are safe, but everywhere else one should always use false information. This includes your name, age, d.o.b., city, etc. For example, I always use January 1 of the year of my birth, rather than my real d.o.b. >> If you say "I'm a mechanic", do you think that will reveal your work & >> home [quoted text clipped - 7 lines] > example, I always use January 1 of the year of my birth, rather than my > real d.o.b. I didn't ask him to do that. I asked for the generic name describing what he does for work. You know why he won't reveal that information. So do I. >> Https sites are safe, but everywhere else one should always use false >> information. This includes your name, age, d.o.b., city, etc. For [quoted text clipped - 3 lines] > I didn't ask him to do that. I asked for the generic name describing what he > does for work. You know why he won't reveal that information. So do I. Sorry. Carry on. If that's the case he better not live in any major US city. More American between the age of 19 and 25 were killed annually in US cities, over the same time period than those of the same age, that have died in Afghanistan and Iraq ;) > In another thread, you said "I served in Iraq. I was afraid of getting my > a.s shot off." > If that's the case he better not live in any major US city. More American > between the age of 19 and 25 were killed annually in US cities, over the > same time period than those of the same age, that have died in Afghanistan > and Iraq ;) By the same argument, you should go into a plane that has a wing about to fall off, because fewer people are killed each year in plane crashes than in Iraq or Afghanistan. You have to look at the odds of being killed in Iraq or Afghanistan. And the odds for a US soldier are something like 1 in 400 over a year, while the odds being killed in major US cities are much lower. >> In another thread, you said "I served in Iraq. I was afraid of getting my >> a.s shot off." I suppose it would depend on what one considers "ODD? Dying fighting the radical Islamic terrorist who want to kill you family members back home and to preserve the right of the kooks there to continue to talk stupid, or simply living in or walking down the street of a major US city LOL >> If that's the case he better not live in any major US city. More >> American between the age of 19 and 25 were killed annually in US cities, [quoted text clipped - 4 lines] > the odds for a US soldier are something like 1 in 400 over a year, while > the odds being killed in major US cities are much lower. |
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