If you think you'd be more likely to have your motorcycle stolen if you lived in Chicago versus Wichita, who could blame you? After all, it's a much bigger city. The same goes for crashes; no one could fault you for assuming that the bigger the city, the more the traffic congestion and therefore the greater the odds of having an accident. But that's not always the case, according to The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies, which insures more motorcycles than any other insurance group in the country.

Progressive reviewed claims data on more than two million motorcycles insured over the past three years to determine the likelihood of a motorcyclist getting into an accident or having a bike stolen. The analysis focused on the 89 U.S. metropolitan areas with populations of 500,000 and higher.

The study found Honolulu riders are most likely to have their bikes stolen, even though it's the 53rd largest metropolitan area. In fact, a motorcyclist in Honolulu is four times more likely to have a bike stolen than is a motorcyclist in Chicago or Detroit, which are the third and seventh largest metro areas in the country, respectively.

Similarly, though Baton Rouge ranks 75th in population, it ranks third when it comes to the likelihood of a rider there having a motorcycle crash. And, a motorcyclist in Philadelphia, the country's fifth largest metro area, is 36 percent less likely to have an accident as one in the Norfolk-Virginia Beach metro area, which is the 47th largest.

One metropolitan area where the statistics are more in line with what you might expect is New York; it ranks number one both in population and in the likelihood of motorcycle collisions. And, while three metro areas rank among the most likely for both thefts and collisions (New York, Norfolk-Virginia Beach, and San Diego), only one — Cincinnati — ranks among the least likely for both.

The rankings in the following tables are based on a relative scale, with 100 representing the national average. (So, for example, in the table showing the metro areas in which a motorcycle is most likely to be crashed, New York would rank 71 points above the average.)

Motorcycle Collision:

Metro Areas In Which A Motorcycle is Most Likely to be Crashed*
(among metros with pop. >500,000)

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Metro Area		Likelihood vs. National Average of 100	Population Rank
1.	New York, N.Y.-N.J.	171	1
2.	Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Portsmouth, Va.-N.C.	157	47
3.	Baton Rouge, La.	153	75
4.	San Diego, Calif.	142	15
5.	San Francisco-Oakland, Calif.	140	9
6.	New Orleans, La.	128	41
7.	San Antonio, Texas	126	31
8.	McAllen-Pharr-Edinburg, Texas	124	76
9.	Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y.	123	16
10.	Orlando, Fla.	123	36

Metro Areas In Which A Motorcycle is Least Likely to be Crashed*
(among metros with pop. >500,000)

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Metro Area		Likelihood vs. National Average of 100	Population Rank
80.	Columbus, Ohio	82	37
81.	Oxnard-Simi Valley-Ventura, Calif.	82	62
82.	Cleveland, Ohio	80	24
83.	Providence-Warwick-Pawtucket, R.I.-Mass.	79	69
84.	Tacoma, Wash.	76	64
85.	Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.	74	32
86.	Toledo, Ohio-Mich.	72	61
87.	Akron, Ohio	70	65
88.	Indianapolis, Ind.	70	34
89.	Bakersfield, Calif.	68	67

* The rankings in the tables above are based on a relative scale, with 100 representing the national average. (So, for example, in the table showing the metro areas in which a motorcycle is most likely to be crashed, New York, at 171, would rank 71 points, or 71 percent, above the average. In the table showing the metro areas in which a motorcycle is least likely to be crashed, Bakersfield, at 68, would rank 32 points, or 32 percent, below the average.)

Motorcycle Theft:

Metro Areas In Which A Motorcycle is Most Likely to be Stolen*
(among metros with pop. >500,000)

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Metro Area		Likelihood vs. National Average of 100	Population Rank
1.	Honolulu, Hawaii	428	53
2.	Miami, Fla.	359	22
3.	San Diego, Calif.	277	15
4.	Las Vegas, Nev.	249	35
5.	New York, N.Y.-N.J.	247	1
6.	Washington, DC-Md.-Va.	242	8
7.	Los Angeles-Long Beach, Calif.	233	2
8.	Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood, Fla.	229	29
9.	New Orleans, La.	228	41
10.	Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Portsmouth, Va.-N.C.	226	47

Metro Areas In Which A Motorcycle is Least Likely to be Stolen*
(among metros with pop. >500,000)

<tbody> </tbody>

Metro Area		Likelihood vs. National Average of 100	Population Rank
80.	Nashville-Davidson, Tenn.	45	39
81.	Pittsburgh, Pa.	42	23
82.	Milwaukee, Wis.	42	33
83.	Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.-Wis.	41	14
84.	Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.	41	32
85.	Lansing-East Lansing, Mich.	41	88
86.	Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.	39	57
87.	Syracuse, N.Y.	35	73
88.	Harrisburg, Pa.	33	85
89.	Grand Rapids, Mich.	29	55

* The rankings in the tables above are based on a relative scale, with 100 representing the national average. (So, for example, in the table showing the metro areas in which a motorcycle is most likely to be stolen, Honolulu, at 428, would rank 328 points, or 328 percent, above the average. In the table showing the metro areas in which a motorcycle is least likely to be stolen, Grand Rapids, at 29, would rank 71 points, or 71 percent, below the average.)

"Riders can't assume that just because they may live in a smaller metropolitan area they have less risk of accident or theft; the data make that very clear," said Rick Stern, motorcycle product manager, Progressive. "No matter where they live, motorcyclists are encouraged to ride safely; to take appropriate measures to protect themselves and their bikes; and to review their insurance policies to make sure they have the coverage that's right for them based on their individual circumstances."

Oh, and in case you're wondering, if you live in Wichita, you're 67 percent more likely to have your bike stolen than if you live in Chicago — even though Chicago is the third largest metro area in the country and Wichita is the 87th. Click here for the complete list of the 89 largest metropolitan areas where motorcycles are most likely to be stolen; click here for the list of where motorcycles are most likely to be crashed.